STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 27 July

[ozymandius]

Tuesday July 27, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 177
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 228 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 282 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 495
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 978
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 26, 2004

Dow... 9,961.92 -0.30 (-0.00%)
Nasdaq... 1,839.02 -10.07 (-0.54%)
S&P 500... 1,084.07 -2.13 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.48% +0.04 (+0.97%)
Gold future... 390.30 -0.20 (-0.05%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Willie - SMALL BUSINESS & THE BIG BOX ERA

SMALL BUSINESS & THE BIG BOX ERA
Asian Imports & Minimum Wage Jobs

The “Big Box” movement, with their warehouse superstores, took root in the late 1980 decade and accelerated in the 1990 decade. The inherent low-cost, high-volume, no frills, bare bones theme caught on mainly due to the attractive prices and good selection. It radically reshaped the US economic landscape. One is hard-pressed to identify the first niche player to employ the big box with specialty in sales theme. The advantages are enormous. The shopper convenience is clear. It ain't sexy, in fact it is often drab. Nor can customer service necessarily touch the Mom & Pop personal touch. The high finance open road to Wall Street funds enables a leg up in competition. The small business retailers have never recovered. Even when resisted, expansion is relentless and almost unstoppable. The highly surprising phenomenon is that over the past decade, as a group they have enjoyed more growth and produced more profits than a great many technology companies, by harnessing information systems and executing a solid business plan to sell ordinary retail items. Their foundation, apart from IT systems, is built upon cheap Asian supply of products, and low-paying jobs at their stores. Much criticism leveled at Wal-Mart is justified, but the same also applies to the other Big Box superstores.

-cut-

PRICING ADVANTAGE

The supply cost advantage translates into an immediate low product price advantage. In many instances the comparison with nearby smaller retailers comes to at least a 20% price difference. The Big Box makes money on volume and scant low profit margins. The usual suspects of loss-leader sales items get customers into the stores. Regularly scheduled sales promotions, pushed along by advertisements (run of press, newspaper inserts, television, radio, direct mail) enable the volume seller to inflict damage on the small retailer on a routine basis. Occasionally, surplus items must be moved out of inventory. Two instances come to mind. Staples received a bargain on paper shredders, like tens of thousands of them. So they offered a free shredder with any purchase of a higher margin furniture item for the home office. An accident occurred before the back-to-school season, whereby Staples was grossly overstocked with backpacks. They sold them at a ridiculous 50% discount. Nearby competitors for these two items could not compete, but the company did not even feel a speed bump.

-cut-

ENTER WALL STREET HIGH FINANCE

The game is changed completely when the Big Box discounter firm is a publicly traded company, with stocks and bonds entering the mix. Any small competitive retailer must deal with a supercharged discounter which can knock them out with relative ease. Most of the specialty discounters listed above own a publicly traded stock. Some had huge growth prospects, and have realized the lion’s share (e.g. Home Depot, Staples, Best Buy, Circuit City) of that growth potential. In the growth years, the employer was able to keep labor costs low, in exchange for stock options. Most options went to management, but also high ranking analysts in the headquarters. Home Depot even granted stock options to floor personnel. Staples issued them to store managers and, of course, the HQ personnel. So Wall Street valuation premiums served as a wage subsidy for some discounters, who could further build on the profit margins in a way the small retailer could not. In my five years at Staples, the chain grew from 270 stores to 1050 stores. The stock appreciated between 600% and 700%. Many regarded their “discounted salaries” and “discounted vacation time” to be augmented by hefty stock options.

-cut-

LOW WAGES

The rank and file among the Big Box retailers do not hold down professional jobs. Many are only one step above minimum wage, whose pay scales enable the retail chain to keep costs down. Wal-Mart again receives the majority of attention, but the problem is widespread among the entire specialty superstore class. Checkout register attendants, inventory replenishment, delivery, shipping, shelf stocking, these make up the bulk of the jobs in their flat org charts. Staff turnover is a natural cost of doing business within this business model. Low pay and few upper level positions encourage turnover, which is overcome with an ample supply of unskilled workers who require only minimal training. At Staples the floor sales turnover was around 40% annually.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Maeve]

2. Well, your forecast yesterday was only slightly off

Better than CNN's happy-talking, anyway! Again today they lead with "markets seen opening higher", but... My gut says that there has to be a break in the downward trend, if just for a breather before continuing, but that could just be the vegie soup I had last night talking.

[ozymandius]

4. heh heh heh

Veggie soup notwithstanding...I agree with your intuition on the downward trend. How low is low enough before the bargain hunters come calling? We saw some of that yesterday. The market needs to catch its breath.

I narrowly avoided taking a stock market bath. I sold off some securities a few days ago (to cover moving expenses). Had I waited two days to sell, the valuation would have shrunk by 1% - and we're talking about a hundred bucks here. It makes a big difference overall.

[54anickel]

14. Morning Ozy and all. So did your $ guy have any interesting insights

for you?

[ozymandius]

19. Good morning 54anickel.

The meeting with my money guy was postponed - he was out sick. So the day was spent preparing for our move.

A-propos of you asking - we (sond and I) are on our way out the door to see him now. Of course, I will fill you in on what he says.

Have a wonderful morning!

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.87 Change -0.16 (-0.18%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1090917605-9e32d306-15833

Forex - Dollar firm ahead of US consumer confidence data

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar remains firm with mild profit-taking failing to erode last week's sharp rally in the wake of upbeat comments from US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan

The market is now on the lookout to see if Greenspan's confidence about the US economy materialises following some recent disappointing news, and ahead of today's consumer confidence report

Analysts expect consumer confidence for June to be unchanged at 101.9

"Whilst today's data is probably not as market significant as the other releases this week, the subsequent price action will be a good indicator of prevailing dollar sentiment," said Sabrina Jacobs, FX strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein

Following Greenspan's testimony last week, Jacobs said the data outlook will assume a greater degree of importance in the weeks ahead, "as investors seek confirmation or otherwise that the recent softness in economic data has indeed been a blip"

Greenspan's optimistic testimony last week cemented expectations that the central bank will carry on raising the cost of borrowing by a quarter point at its upcoming rate setting meetings, the next one of which takes place on Aug 5

Though the Fed switched gears last month by raising short-term interest rates by a quarter point from 46-year lows of 1.00 pct in a first step to head off inflation, concern about the pace of the US recovery heightened expectations that upcoming rate increases would not be aggressive

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1090852282-9e32d306-29172

Dollar remains lower after U.S. housing data

CHICAGO (AFX) -- The dollar remained lower against its major rivals in morning U.S. trading, although the currency market appeared to have little reaction to a report showing a record clip for U.S. home resales in June. The dollar on Monday had already come under renewed selling pressure ahead of key U.S. data due later in the week that could show a slower pace for U.S. GDP growth in third quarter. The dollar rallied some 3 percent last week on an upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. Those gains were not carried over into the new week, however. The dollar was quoted down 0.3 percent at 109.86 yen. The greenback fell 0.5 percent against Europe's shared currency, with the euro valued at $1.2148

...very short blurb...

http://money.cnn.com/2004/07/27/news/international/ahold.reut/

Report: Ex-Ahold execs to be indicted

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. prosecutors are poised to unveil the first criminal charges related to an accounting scandal at supermarket giant Ahold NV, a newspaper reported Tuesday.


Prosecutors plan as soon as this week to indict three former executives at Netherlands-based Ahold's U.S. Foodservice unit for conspiracy to commit securities fraud, which cost investors $6 billion, the Wall Street Journal said, citing sources familiar with the situation.

Ahold (AHO: Research, Estimates) spokesman Fritz Schmuhl said he could not confirm or comment on the report while the investigation was continuing, adding that Ahold was cooperating fully with the probe.


The $6 billion figure represents the decline in Ahold's market value after the accounting problems became apparent, the newspaper said. U.S. Foodservice last year said its executives had inflated supplier rebates, resulting in an $880 million earnings overstatement.

<snip>

A former U.S. Foodservice purchasing executive, Timothy Lee, pleaded guilty last Friday to insider trading and securities fraud charges, the newspaper said, citing sources.

The plea agreement stemmed from allegations that Lee tipped off representatives of food vendors to the $3.5 billion sale of U.S. Foodservice to Ahold in 2000, it said.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[ozymandius]

5. The Economy's Summer Vacation - BusinessWeek Online

This might provide some contrast to the acceleration in June home sales.

The economy cooled off in June, with weaker consumer sales and factory orders suggesting that growth has moderated. The smaller rise in employment, although distorted by seasonal factors, also suggests that excessive growth may be less of a problem than we at Standard & Poor's -- and the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Bank -- had thought. Inflation has begun to edge higher, but the Fed continues to believe what it calls "transitory factors" account for much of the acceleration.

The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, to 1.25%, at its June 29-30 meeting. If growth continues to moderate, however, the central bank may not have to follow up as fast as we first thought. We still expect another 25 basis-point rate hike in August and an additional 50 basis points by yearend, but these hikes could be delayed if the economy softens more than we expect.

That could happen as consumers, who had led this recovery, continue to run out of steam -- or at least money. This year, for the first time since 1997, growth in consumer spending is likely to trail gross domestic product growth. For the last three years, consumer spending has been supported by three factors: tax cuts, which increased household disposable income; low interest rates, which allowed cheap borrowing and cut monthly mortgage payments; and low inflation. These offset the loss of jobs in the recession and the loss of wealth in the stock market crash.

more...

[UpInArms]

16. Yen May Decline This Week, Bloomberg Survey Predicts

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=nifea&&sid=a5ihCgo1aAJ8

excerpt:

`Sell at 108'

Adding to concern the yen may extend its retreat is speculation the Bank of Japan will resume selling the currency, said John Taylor, 61, chairman of FX Concepts Inc., which has $11.7 billion under management. The threat helps explain why the yen has failed to breach 107 since last month, he said.

``There's always concern the BOJ could be at the other side of the trade once you cross that mark,'' said Taylor, who is based in New York. ``I would buy the yen at this level and sell it at 108.''

Japan sold a record 32.9 trillion yen ($303.5 billion) in the year ended March 31, according to the Ministry of Finance, in an effort to protect exporters earnings.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. High oil prices boost BP profits

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1270083,00.html

Energy giant BP today reported record half-year profits on the back of the highest oil prices for more than 20 years.

BP, the world's second-biggest oil group - which has outshone its scandal-hit rival Royal Dutch/Shell this year - posted profits of $8.6bn (£4.68bn), up by one fifth from a year ago.

It is the first of the world's top three oil companies to report second-quarter results. Exxon, the industry leader, and Shell, the world's third-largest oil group, report later this week.

In January, Shell's statement that it had overstated oil and gas reserves by 20% shocked financial markets. However, record oil prices and bumper profits by top oil firms buoyed the sector.

Although the world economy slowed during the second quarter, and Opec boosted production, BP said strong demand for oil, and tight capacity, would continue to prop up prices. A barrel of Brent oil averaged $35.3 in the second quarter, and more than $37 during July.

Lord Browne, the BP chief executive, said the company was on track to meet all its targets, and announced a 9% increase in dividends to shareholders. High oil prices had enabled the group to buy back a large tranche of its shares and accelerate growth in dividend payments.

...more...

[ozymandius]

7. profit worries

This conflicts with the information Greenspan and Snow have been peddling.

Stocks Seen Unchanged; Profits Debated

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. share indexes were set to open little changed on Tuesday with investors seen returning to beaten-down stocks even as they worry about the profit outlook for the second half.

Stocks have been under pressure in recent weeks on fears the powerful improvement in earnings seen over the past year will run out of steam as interest rates rise and economic growth slows.

-cut-

"The market remains focused on earnings even though we are sitting at year lows on the Nasdaq," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist, Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum. "The one negative holding the market back is oil."

-cut-

VOLUME DROPS

The number of shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange (news - web sites) has been below its 90-day average on 41 of the 59 trading days since the beginning of May when the S&P 500 tested its most recent low.

more...

[ozymandius]

8. What's the latest on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

I seem to recall news of these two giants' struggle to maintain their composure. Are they considerably hurt by foreclosures?

[UpInArms]

12. someone with more savvy than me will have to explain

this one

I.R.S. Settles With 2 Firms Over a Tax-Avoidance Plan

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/27/business/27tax.html

The Internal Revenue Service announced an unusual settlement yesterday with two financial firms that it accuses of improperly trading slices of mortgage pools to avoid taxes owed on those slices.

<snip>

The settlement concerns a highly complex area of the vast, mortgage- backed securities market known as Remic's - or real estate mortgage investment conduits. They are investment-grade pools of mortgages that separate individual mortgages into different groups according to their maturities and riskiness, and are then sold to investors.

Remic transactions are put together by Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Ginnie Mac, the government- sponsored or owned mortgage agencies, among others, and account for about a third of the total debt issuances on Wall Street, according to the Wall Street law firm of Cleary, Gottlieb, Stein & Hamilton. They are often sold to brokers or directly to investors by Wall Street investment banks.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Freddie Mac to sell $2 bln callable notes this week

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5784989

NEW YORK, July 27 (Reuters) - Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the No. 2 U.S. home funding company, is planning to sell later this week $2 billion in new three-year callable notes due Aug. 3, 2007, said joint lead manager J.P. Morgan on Tuesday.

The notes have a one-time call feature on Aug. 3, 2005.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

9. Ponzi schemes are alive and well -

Man guilty in fitness scam that bilked schools

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/nearnorthwest/chi-0407270072jul27,1,5902866.story?coll=chi-newslocalnearnorthwest-hed

The owner of a Utah company pleaded guilty Monday for his part in an alleged scheme that left hundreds of school districts in Illinois and across the country paying for exercise equipment they expected to get for free.

<snip>

School Fitness Systems was the vendor used by a charitable group, National School Fitness Foundation, to put high-tech exercise gear into more than 600 schools across the country.

Saying it wanted to combat childhood obesity, the foundation promised to repay districts for a package of cardiovascular and weight-lifting machines sold by Beardall's company for an average of $220,000.

The reimbursement money was supposed to come from government grants and private donations. But Minnesota investigators said it actually flowed from royalties School Fitness Systems gave to the foundation, creating a Ponzi scheme in which one district was paid with the money from another.

Prosecutors said Beardall knew the charity was not raising outside money but failed to tell the school districts buying the gear and the banks financing the purchases.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. New York May Sell Naming Rights to Bridges, Tunnels, NYT Says

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ahxy6GNckP68&refer=us

July 27 (Bloomberg) -- New York City's Metropolitan Transportation Authority may sell naming rights to subway stations, bus lines, bridges and tunnels, the New York Times reported.

Transportation officials asked for proposals from marketing firms on sponsorship agreements, the newspaper said. Katherine Lapp, the authority's executive director, told the Times that the option is being considered to avoid raising fares and tolls.

...more...

Imagine the headlines if something bad happened :D

[UpInArms]

11. here's some cheerleading projection -

U.S. July Consumer Confidence Seen Little Changed, Survey Shows

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&refer=us&sid=aGULIifcphX4

July 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence may have kept at a two-year high this month amid improved prospects for employment, economists said.

A Bloomberg News survey calls for a reading of 102 in the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for July. The index was 101.9 a month earlier and hasn't been higher since it was 106.3 in June 2002. July numbers are being released at 10 a.m. today, New York time.

``The labor market's getting a lot better,'' Wesley Beal, an economist at the financial research firm IDEAglobal in New York, said. ``We're about due for that to start showing up more in consumer confidence.''

The U.S. added almost 1.3 million jobs from January through June, the biggest six-month gain since the year 2000. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan last week said figures for July will be ``somewhat better'' than in the prior month. June payrolls expanded by 112,000, less than half the May increase.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. a bit of pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:16AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.5. Little volatility in the futures market as the modestly bullish bias has held steady throughout the morning and has created an expectation that the cash market will start on a positive note

8:46AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. Little change in the pre- market bias, and hence, expectations for a modestly positive start for the cash market remain intact... Good earnings news from Verizon (VZ), an upgrade of the wireline sector to Positive from Neutral by Lehman Bros., and Legg Mason suggesting the biotech sector is undervalued by 15-20% are helping to feed idea that a bargain hunting bid is in order at the open

8:19AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Futures market showing a positive edge this morning... Lack of major issues surrounding earnings announcements and sense that market is due for oversold bounce at some point are contributing to the favorable bias

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above March's low crossing at 1373. Closes below this support level would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1346 later this summer. Closes above the 10- day moving average crossing at 1397.30 would temper the bearish outlook in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned neutral hinting that a low is in or is near. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 3.50 pt. at 1376.50 as of 6:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1095.17. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1079.50 is the next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned neutral hinting that a low is in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1096.69 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September S&P 500 Index was up 2.20 pts. at 1085.10 as of 6:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

(edited to add the late blather)

[Maeve]

18. Here's that bullish open

Dow 9,993.33 +31.41 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,846.94 +7.92 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,087.51 +3.44 (+0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.499% +0.024

[UpInArms]

20. Twins!

:toast:

[UpInArms]

17. 9:35 EST markets are open

Dow 9,993.78 +31.86 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,846.82 +7.80 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,087.53 +3.46 (+0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.499% +0.024

[Maeve]

22. Hey, sis! It looks like another "pointy things" morning

Up, down, up, down, up...The market seldom settles in the first hour or so, anyway, but lately it seems to be more volatile that usual.

Dow 10,013.24 +51.32 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 1,847.16 +8.14 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,088.09 +4.02 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.501% +0.026

[54anickel]

24. Let's attribute the bullish opening to "Big Dogs" speech last night!!!

That'll set off Shrubco! Reminded everyone of the good old days of the 90's. Didn't they do the same with regards to the fond memories of Ronnie?

[54anickel]

21. The 'New' Paradigm?

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=34524

snip>

During the prolonged dismay of the tech bust, the remarkable rise in house prices provided a well of confidence that was critical for last summer's launch to widespread speculation in the financial markets and aggressive consumption. Of course, the features of the run of very aggressive behaviour have been low interest rates and the weak dollar.

Before taking this to what's next, it is essential to note that treasury bill rates plunged from 6.35% in 2000 to 0.86% in January of this year and that this was not a result of Fed policy but typical of the initial phase of a post-bubble contraction. To emphasize this, it's worth adding that such rapid collapses in interest rates have only occurred in the senior currency following a great financial bubble. The last two examples, which blew out in 1929 and 1873, show equally dramatic declines.

No matter whether the speculation has been in financial or tangible assets, the action has continued in the face of rising market rates of interest and these have soared beginning in January. The focus on changes in administered rates, such as Fed funds, is dangerous as the record over the past 200 years is that the senior central bank follows by many months the change in market rates – either down or up.

snip>

Although the transition of speculation from one asset class to the next is one of the most profound and regular events in financial history, the establishment believes that it was some unique policy change in 1980 that prompted the change. It was the sixth such example.

Take a look – there has been no change in the definition of the orthodox definitions of money as M1, M2, M3, etc. and in their respective growth curves. So there was no perceptible change on the policy side, but Mr. Market forced a huge change as the crowd rejected commodity speculation and turned to stock speculation. (The conclusions this writer made in early 1982 were controversial – "No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities." At that time, the consensus was that the Fed would depreciate and commodities would inflate for the foreseeable future.)

Mr. Market is about to do the next big step in the traditional sequence.

To be straightforward, it is best to put these big changes in trading terms. Every "old" era of "galloping inflation" ended in a mania to hoard tangible assets. Then the "new" era ended in widespread hoarding of financial assets. Consistently, each has been accompanied by the compulsion to employ leverage which, being common to both asset plays, fosters the consistent growth of credit.

more...

[54anickel]

23. Stock market going nowhere

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/072704dnbus.aedf8.html

Many investors just don't seem to want to play in the stock market anymore. Maybe they are just bored by it all.

The market has been on a languorous stroll for the better part of this year, neither rising nor falling with any conviction. At the moment, the Standard & Poor's 500 index, which many consider a proxy for the entire stock market, is down slightly for the year – 2.5 percent.

snip>

The cloud of lethargy that has descended on the market is the result of a confluence of worries that have sapped enthusiasm from investors, particularly small investors.

"Bull markets climb a wall of worry, but there are so many concerns now that they have really stalled the market," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. "It's like all the individual worries we have ever had arrived all at once."

Some of the more notable ones include:

snip>

Little enthusiasm

But it could take months or longer for that to happen, and in the meantime investors don't seem overly enthusiastic about stocks. Money flows into stock mutual funds have been relatively weak since March and even turned negative in May when a net $563.5 million was pulled out, according to the Investment Company Institute.

"Mutual fund flows dried up in May and foreign demand for U.S. equities became net selling in March, April and May," said Gail Dudack, chief investment strategist at SunGard Institutional Brokerage Inc. "There is no real driver to move the market higher."

more...

[Maeve]

25. Consumer confidence rises, new home sales fall

Consumer confidence index soars to 106.1 in July from revised 102.8; new home sales down 0.8%. Details coming

[54anickel]

32. US $ must have liked that - looking at gold, euro, yen charts. n/t

[UpInArms]

33. U.S. consumer confidence surges to 106.1 in July

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={9E56561C-F8E5-4305-8D77-2852B5889FC6}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumer confidence improved sharply in July, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The board's consumer confidence index jumped to 106.1 in July from a revised 102.8 in June, a two-year high. Economists were expecting a flat reading of about 102. The big improvement came in the expectations index, which rose to 105.8 in July from 100.8. The present situation index increased to 106.5 in July from 105.9. "The spring turnaround has been fueled by gains in employment, and unless the job market sours, consumer confidence should continue to post solid numbers," said Lynn Franco, head of the board's consumer research unit. Consumers' views were mixed, but generally optimistic.

I wonder where the hell that optimism is - because this past weekend in Lincoln, NE, there was none to be seen - the annual festival there brought out the lowest attendance in 10 years - the poorest sales in 10 years - and the worst music in 10 years.

Who the hell are they trying to kid?

[54anickel]

37. Maybe the survey was taken at the same time there were lots of

reports of Kerry leading in the polls. B-)

[54anickel]

26. Interest-Only Mortgage Turns Up the Heat in Homes

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_currier&sid=a0Qn.hr7JevI

July 27 (Bloomberg) -- If you smell something burning around a house nowadays, it might be the owner's fancy new interest-only mortgage.

Interest-only mortgages ``are incredibly hot right now,'' says a mortgage-banker quoted in the Baltimore Sun. They are ``the hottest items on the real estate market,'' says the Web site of the USC Credit Union at the University of Southern California.

When handling hot stuff, you have to be careful. ``A new form of mortgage -- no money down and interest-only payments for years -- is converting homeownership from a solid investment into a dangerous gamble,'' warns the Sacramento (California) Bee in a recent editorial.

The admonition is appropriate, and not to be taken lightly. Yet it represents only one side of the story. In their many potential uses, interest-only mortgages may be a lot like fire itself -- the proverbial wonderful servant as well as a terrible master.

more...

[Maeve]

27. Strikes me as the risk of losing everything w/o the benefit of equity

And I'd hesitate to call it "ownership" at all--the bank still owns the house but your name is on it and you are the one carrying the insurance risks, etc.... :shrug:

[54anickel]

29. Yes, they make sense for some folks, my brother is a good example as

his profession has him moving every 2 - 3 years and he's lucked out each time as he bought in a rapidly developing area where the value of the home had a steep increase.

Not a good choice if your decision to go with an ARM is based on how much home you can buy on a payment you can "supposedly" afford.

[54anickel]

28. ARMs appeal most to poor, minorities

registration required or use www.bugmenot.com

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/business/9249800.htm?ERIGHTS=6603520269970626284philly::[e-mail]&KRD_RM=2qknpojkmlioliiiiiiiiiqioj|News|N

WASHINGTON - Lower-income and minority consumers are most likely to choose adjustable-rate home mortgages over fixed-rate loans - making those borrowers especially likely to be hurt by rising interest rates, a study released yesterday found.

The Consumer Federation of America said these homeowners did not understand the risk of adjustable mortgages.

By contrast, about two-thirds of those surveyed in the poll said they preferred fixed-rate mortgages and appeared to be aware of the risk of ARMs, the consumer group said.

snip>

The survey of 1,015 adults was conducted from July 8 to 11. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Thirty-three percent of respondents with annual incomes less than $25,000 said they preferred ARMs to fixed-rate mortgages, compared with 20 percent of those earning more than $50,000. Thirty-seven percent of Hispanics and 31 percent of African Americans expressed a preference for ARMs, compared with 23 percent of whites.

bit more, touches on what UIA posted yesterday...

[Maeve]

30. 10:22--lovely confidence climb there!

Altho it might have peaked a short time ago (could be breath for another climb, but...)
Dow 10,024.53 +62.61 (+0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,855.02 +16.00 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,089.38 +5.31 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.506% +0.031

And I'm out of here for the rest of the day--lunch and a van check (we got rear-ended last week and there is a bit of damage that needs fixed--no one hurt and the van still drives fine, but..)

[54anickel]

34. Glad to hear no one was hurt Maeve. Have a great day, although I'm

sure you'd prefer to spend it doing something a bit more enjoyable. Hey, lunch sounds good though!

[54anickel]

31. Speculative investors buying metro Phoenix homes

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2004/07/12/newscolumn4.html

snip>

Brown, who publishes The Phoenix Housing Market Letter, said several home builders in the region have expressed their concern "about the investor buying spree in their communities."

Doug Fulton, president of Fulton Homes Sales Corp., said the story is true, and it could have a sad ending for the average buyer who purchases a new home from a speculator.

"You now are buying a resale, so who's going to have a warranty for your home," Fulton said. "Who are you going to call when you need help?"

Fulton said stopping sales to investors is all but impossible because when a builder refuses to sell to an investor, all the investor has to do is bring in "a straw buyer," or someone representing the investor.

"It's a challenge, and at best, it's awful," Fulton said. "They're dropping on us like locusts. You can quote me on that. They're coming from Las Vegas and from California. The word's out in California that if you get into the first phase of a community here in Arizona, that you'll make money by the end. It's a very different environment from what we're used to working in."

more...

[54anickel]

35. Here's the happy, happy, joy, joy on the numbers -

U.S. July Consumer Confidence Rises to 106.1 From 102.8 in June

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a8CJ1YnVq0vY&refer=us

snip>

This month's headline reading was the highest since June 2002. The index component that tracks consumer expectations for the next six months jumped to 105.8, the highest since December, from 100.8 in June. A gauge of optimism about the present situation rose to 106.5 this month, the highest since May 2002, from 105.9.

Economy `Holding Up'

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other U.S. central bank officials last week said the economy would most likely shake off recent ``softness'' and resume a robust expansion. The percentage of consumers that see business conditions in the current month as ``good'' was little changed, falling to 25.6 from 25.8 in June, the Conference Board said.

snip>

Good News for Bush

The economy has been a major issue in the presidential campaign, as Democrats have hammered President George W. Bush for a net loss of a million jobs during his term.

snip>

``When consumers say that jobs are plentiful, hiring tends to pick up; the opposite is true when consumers say that jobs are hard to get,'' said Joseph LaVorgna, chief fixed income economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. :crazy:

snip>

Spending Plans

There isn't a clear correlation between consumer sentiment and spending, according to studies by Federal Reserve and private economists. Still, job and income growth may be helping to keep home sales strong.

The percentage of people who said they plan to buy a new home over the next six months rose to 4 from 3.6, the Conference Board survey found. Sales of previously owned homes rose to a record 6.95 million annual pace in June, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday.

more...

[UpInArms]

36. if they "say" it - it MUST be true

:eyes:

When consumers say that jobs are plentiful, hiring tends to pick up; the opposite is true when consumers say that jobs are hard to get,'' said Joseph LaVorgna, chief fixed income economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York

Tinkerbell lives!

[54anickel]

38. Nortel Missed Its Targets, Stock Sinks (Cuts to come - from where?)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040727/tech_nortel_3.html

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Nortel Networks Corp. (Toronto:NT.TO - News) said on Tuesday it must make cuts after missing its targets for costs and gross profit margins, and its shares slumped as investors wondered where the savings could come from.

snip>

In a biweekly update required by securities regulators, Nortel said it has not reached its target of operating costs below 40 percent of its overall revenue, and gross margins in the mid 40-percent range.

Operating costs include both research and development, and sales, general and administrative expenses.

Brampton, Ontario-based Nortel maintained its forecast that its 2004 sales will grow faster than the overall market for telecoms equipment, which it sees expanding in the low to mid-single digits.

more...

Hmmm, R&D, nope, maybe sales - nah. Notice they don't look at administrative expenses. It'll probably come from labor expenses somehow. Replace some of the longtime, seemingly overpaid engineers with cheaper labor - heck there are plenty of folks out their willing to do your job for a whole lot less $$$.

[UpInArms]

39. here's a very important message from last night's convention

and something that every citizen of this country should understand:

These policies have turned the projected 5.8 trillion dollar surplus we left- enough to pay for the baby boomers retirement-into a projected debt of nearly 5 trillion dollars, with a 400 plus billion dollar deficit this year and for years to come. How do they pay for it? First by taking the monthly surplus in Social Security payments and endorsing the checks of working people over to me to cover my tax cut. But it's not enough. They are borrowing the rest from foreign governments, mostly Japan and China. Sure, they're competing with us for good jobs but how can we enforce our trade laws against our bankers? If you think it's good policy to pay for my tax cut with the Social Security checks of working men and women, and borrowed money from China, vote for them. If not, John Kerry's your man.

for a full transcript of Bill Clinton's speech, go here:

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1090934854-9e32d306-29044

[54anickel]

41. Thanks for the transcript link UIA! I wasn't able to watch all of

Clintons speech last night, what I was able to watch left me in tears as it brought up feelings of despair of where we are now with Idiot son of an asshole in charge. He certainly pointed out the stark contrast in thinking and decision making. Quite a few good talking points in his speech last night to share with the B-i-Ls.

Edit to add:

Isn't rather strange to have a speech transcript posted by the Forex watchers at fxstreet? Wonder what one could read into that?

[54anickel]

40. Keep a Running Tab Before Selling Your Home

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/040727/10174062_4.html

Thanks to the big appreciation in home prices, many homeowners are making a bundle when they sell.
What's more, most will get to pocket those profits tax free -- up to $250,00 if single and up to $500,000 married -- as long as they have lived there for at least two of the past five years, courtesy of a 1997 law excluding most capital gains on principal residences from taxes.

Still, a small, but growing, number of upper middle-class and affluent homeowners in pricey markets along both coasts are beginning to exceed the generous limits of the law and will have to pay capital gains taxes on the excess, according to tax and real estate experts.

The tax of 15% or 5%, depending on the seller's tax bracket, can be reduced or eliminated with good tax planning and careful record keeping. For some taxpayers, the tax can even help wipe away any large, painful stock-loss carry forwards of the past several years.

snip>

Linda Goold, tax counsel for the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, said the association is aware that rapid price appreciation in a small portion of the nation's housing stock is causing home sellers to exceed the 1997 exclusion threshold.

"We know that it's a problem, that it's out there," she says. "We were disappointed when Congress initially passed the law, that they didn't index it for inflation."

more...

[UpInArms]

42. silly woman - there is no inflation

according to Meanspin!

"We know that it's a problem, that it's out there," she says. "We were disappointed when Congress initially passed the law, that they didn't index it for inflation."

[54anickel]

44. SNARF! She didn't get Meanspins memo regarding the latest

terminology for the new economy. It's no longer inflation, you must now refer to it as "Wealth creation".

See how much better that would read with the new terminology? Why that would get everyone out there buying homes! Oh yeah, that's right - they ARE!!!!

[TrogL]

43. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2004-06-28 Monday, June 28 0.744325 USD
2004-06-29 Tuesday, June 29 0.742666 USD
2004-06-30 Wednesday, June 30 0.745879 USD
2004-07-01 Thursday, July 1 0.750469 USD
2004-07-02 Friday, July 2 0.754489 USD
2004-07-06 Tuesday, July 6 0.754091 USD
2004-07-07 Wednesday, July 7 0.757805 USD
2004-07-08 Thursday, July 8 0.759648 USD
2004-07-09 Friday, July 9 0.757174 USD
2004-07-12 Monday, July 12 0.758265 USD
2004-07-13 Tuesday, July 13 0.754205 USD
2004-07-14 Wednesday, July 14 0.756144 USD
2004-07-15 Thursday, July 15 0.755287 USD
2004-07-16 Friday, July 16 0.763825 USD
2004-07-19 Monday, July 19 0.764409 USD
2004-07-20 Tuesday, July 20 0.763417 USD
2004-07-21 Wednesday, July 21 0.755173 USD
2004-07-22 Thursday, July 22 0.761267 USD
2004-07-23 Friday, July 23 0.756487 USD
2004-07-26 Monday, July 26 0.750751 USD


The loonie's been taking a bit of a break. Here's some blather from yesterday.

http://www.dailyfx.com/currency_cad_technicals.html

I have no idea what he's talking about.

USD/CAD stayed bearish after our last comment but found S at 3053 on 07/19. The pair then rallied 222pts from the low. The outlook is still bearish but bears will be extremely cautious since many indicators point to a reversal. A clear double inside day is present (imminent violent move) while MACD is positive and RSI is coming back from oversold territory. Bears will still try to exploit the 200 SMA and 76.4% Fibo from the Mar - Jun bull wave (3240/3290 zone) but a sustained breakout above the zone will turn the outlook positive. 3400/3450 would then be the only serious R ahead (former breakout pt now R, 100 and 50 SMA). Finally reversal players (bulls) will consider 2980/3030 thanks to the Low BB and 76.4% Fibo from the Jan - May bull wave.

[UpInArms]

45. Surprise Profit at US Airways (but...)

http://www.thestreet.com/_tsclsii/stocks/transportation/10174290.html

US Airways (UAIR:Nasdaq - news - research) announced a surprising second-quarter profit, but continued to warn employees that the airline's long-term prospects were in doubt unless they cut their pay again.

US Airways managed a second-quarter net profit of $34 million, or 59 cents a share, a big improvement from the year-ago quarter's profit of $26 million, or 25 cents a share. Results are an even bigger improvement over 2003 when a $214 million government reimbursement for security fees is taken out. The two Wall Street analysts covering the company expected it to lose $1.34, on average, in the second quarter.

In reaction to the upside surprise, shares of the carrier rose 17 cents, or 7.1%, to $2.55.

Revenue came in at $1.96 billion, up 10.1% from the $1.78 billion it had a year ago, with demand for flights outpacing supply. The company said traffic, a demand metric measured in revenue passenger miles, rose 11.8%, while it increased capacity, a supply metric measured in available passenger miles, rose 6.2%. As a result, US Airways filled 78.9% of its seats in the second quarter, a quarterly record and a 3.5 percentage-point gain from last year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

46. Barrick OKs Chile Project, Profit Slide

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5786131

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) reported a 45 percent drop in second quarter earnings on Tuesday as costs rose and sales of gold fell, and it gave the green light to its giant Pascua Lama gold mine development on the Chile-Argentina border.

Barrick, the world's third biggest gold producer, earned $34 million, or 6 cents a share, in the three months to June 30, bang on market forecasts as polled by Thomson First Call.

Barrick also said it was proceeding with Pascua Lama, its biggest project and one of the world's largest undeveloped gold deposits.

The Toronto-based producer projected that it will cost between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion to build a mine at the site, some 25 percent more than its 2001 estimate. But the company had warned the market that costs had crept up.

...more...

Hmmm... Barrick? Where have I heard that name before?

http://www.google.com/search?q=barrick%2Bpeter+munk%2Bgeorge+bush&sourceid=opera&num=0&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

[54anickel]

49. Heh-heh-heh n/t

[54anickel]

51. When dealing overtakes digging (M&As in gold mining)

http://www.iht.com/articles/531103.html

Newcrest Mining, Australia's biggest gold producer, and its rival Oxiana may get takeover offers as gold companies worldwide combine to shore up reserves.
.
"We've had an increase in approaches by the investment banking community in the last few months," Owen Hegarty, chief executive of the Melbourne-based Oxiana, Australia's second-largest gold miner by market value, said in a recent interview. "That makes me think there is more consolidation to come."
.
Money spent or bid on mergers or acquisitions in the gold industry has risen 70 percent to $7.3 billion this year from the year-ago period, Bloomberg data show. Global spending on metals exploration slumped to a 10-year low in 2002, increasing the appeal of acquisitions as a means to expand.
.
Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold, the world's No.1 and No.3 gold producers, are among potential buyers, said Gary Armor, a fund manager at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.

snip>

The Toronto-based Barrick plans to spend $2 billion on four gold mines in South America and to bolster production by 2 million ounces a year to 7 million ounces by 2007. Barrick needs to replace 5.5 million ounces a year.

more...

[54anickel]

47. After a Recall, Boston Scientific Tries to Assure Wary Investors

(Of course, Shrubco's latest changes that will set precedent to protect mfgs of FDA approved items from lawsuits don't play into this assuring investors business) :eyes:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/27/business/27place.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1090925621-oFc5PTY8VelwusOiS5LJ4A

Boston Scientific says it was still clinging to its lead in the market for drug-coated stents, despite its recall of some devices about 10 days ago. But while company executives sought to reassure investors yesterday in a conference call that it had fixed the problem with the device, some doctors say the next few weeks will be critical to determining whether the issue has been resolved.

"What will be the most reassuring is the passage of time,'' said Dr. Deepak L. Bhatt, an interventional cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic, where some doctors have still not resumed using the Taxus stents. Many investors, though, seemed convinced by the company's assurances and the strong second-quarter results announced yesterday. The shares, which had fallen by nearly a fifth since Boston Scientific announced a recall on July 16, rose $2.12 a share to close at $35.71.

"Despite the recall, we had a blow-out quarter," James R. Tobin, chief executive of Boston Scientific, said in the conference call.

In the first full quarter that reflected sales of the Taxus, the company's profits tripled to $377 million, compared with $126 million for last year's second quarter. Sales reached nearly $1.5 billion, compared with $854 million in a year earlier.

more...

[UpInArms]

48. 11:25 EST numbers and blather (Wheee!)

Dow 10,035.81 +73.89 (+0.74%)
Nasdaq 1,845.90 +6.88 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,088.05 +3.98 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.524% +0.049

11:00AM: Crude oil prices have pushed back near $42, taking some of the enthusiasm from stocks, but the indices remain higher across the board...given the trend in recent sessions, it would not be surprising to see some downward pressure emerge through the day...the 10-year note took a hit on the strong consumer confidence number, and is now down 9/ 32...that has pushed the yield back up above 4 1/2% to 4.52%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1825/1092, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1691/1011

10:30AM: Indices hold most of their gains from consumer confidence boost...after the close today, PeopleSoft (PSFT) and Veritas (VRTS) report...both have already warned, however, reducing the risk...there are still plenty of earnings reports left to come, but most of the major technology companies have already reported and the risk of weak guidance is thus reduced from this sector which has so roiled the market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1957/872, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1795/796

10:00AM: Consumer confidence for July jumps to 106.1 from 101.9 in June and gives the stock market a boost...there have been concerns about economic conditions after soft June numbers, but the July manufacturing surveys were very strong and now consumer confidence appears to have increased as well...the soft June numbers may prove temporary...new home sales fell 0.8% for June but remained at very high levels...NYSE Adv/Dec 1604/979, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1403/918

Dollar:

Last trade 89.61 Change +0.58 (+0.65%)

[UpInArms]

50. Oil Hits $42 on Supply Gloom Before Data

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5786829

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices touched $42 a barrel on Tuesday, as speculative funds took a spate of refinery problems and forecasts of shrinking U.S. crude stockpiles as their cue to bid the market higher.

U.S. light crude (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 56 cents to hit $42.00, 45 cents below 21- year highs logged in early June.

London Brent crude (LCOc1: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 29 cents to $38.44, after hitting an eight-week high of $38.60.

Dealers said funds had fueled the rise as worries over supply disruptions in the Middle East and from financial problems at Russian oil company YUKOS kept prices bubbling.

<snip>

Analysts polled by Reuters expect increased refinery activity to have cut crude stocks in the United States by 900,000 barrels in the week ended July 23. Supplies fell 3.6 million barrels in the previous week.

...more...

[54anickel]

52. More Funnies From The Fed

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/rostenko072604.html

snip>

Will the PPT save the day once again? Only time will tell, but here's the important factor to bear in mind. I believe the market has grown fairly accustomed to stocks not being "allowed" to fall. Arguably, to some extent the bulls have been emboldened by the seeming "protection" below the market while short sellers have grown a bit weary of getting burned. If the market does manage to move sharply under 1076, expect the downside to get quite a bit sharper as folks realize that the powers that be have lost their grip. It'll take a lot of selling to overcome the buying of a team of manipulators with virtually unlimited resources. If it happens, you'll know the downmove is the real deal.

(As a related aside, I received some enquiries regarding how this official market "manipulation" is carried out. We don't know for sure, but we do know that Executive Order 12631 created the President's Working Group on Financial Markets in order to prevent future debacles like the crash of '87. As with all great government schemes, these folks seem to have run amuck and taken it upon themselves to interfere with the markets at key potential turning points. We don't know for sure how and when they operate, but the signs are there: dramatic reversals at key technical levels in the markets.

How do they do it? Doesn't it require oodles of money? Not really. At key levels, the market tends to hit "dead air." Traders are watching and waiting. "Will she or won't she?" No one wants to step in front of a speeding locomotive. Send a few big orders into the S&P futures pit in Chicago, move the market higher and thereby trigger program trades in the cash market. Voila! Programs start buying, futures traders cover shorts, a feeding frenzy begins. Mission accomplished.)

We'll see what happens but on a much lighter note, let's turn our attention to the goings on of this past week. It was, after all, that time of year once again: Uncle Al's Semi-Annual Congressional Comedy Show. And what a hoot it was!

[54anickel]

53. U.S. stocks climb on positive earnings, data

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040727/e5ce99f12a27656a899fd25ac83657b1_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks were solidly higher Tuesday morning, boosted by a series of positive earnings reports, including blue chip Verizon, and news that consumer confidence was at a two-year high.

"We might get a relief rally and we might be able to close on the upside today, but it's still too early to say we've hit bottom here," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and strategist at S.W. Bach.

Cardillo said the market may seem to be cheap but that the technical outlook remains weak and needs to do some base-building before there is a reversal.

"The bottom line is the market is very much gripped by the bears and they for the moment are in control," Cardillo said.

[54anickel]

54. Dollar recharged by U.S. statistics

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={496BB69A-C86D-406B-BBC2-BDB833B6FCC3}&siteid=yhoo

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar turned higher Tuesday as the release of mostly upbeat U.S. economic reports was seen lifting the odds for more-aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes.

Higher U.S. interest rates would presumably make dollar-based investments more attractive to foreign investors.

snip>

Uncertainty ahead of a steady stream of U.S. economic data due out this week, and broader issues such as the persistent near-record U.S. trade deficit, had kept dollar holders on the defensive early Tuesday.

But the greenback continued to be underpinned by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's optimistic economic outlook in testimony before Congress last week. Tuesday's reports on consumer confidence and new-home sales helped back up the Fed chief's view.

big snip of happy, happy, joy, joy>

While U.S. rates are seen heading higher, they may stay significantly below those offered on investments in other parts of the industrialized world. Accordingly, the dollar continues to be dogged by uncertainty that the United States will draw enough foreign capital investment flows to offset its record trade and budget deficits.

[54anickel]

55. 12:57 Lunchtime rally results

Dow 10,058.08 +96.16 (+0.97%)
Nasdaq 1,857.41 +18.39 (+1.00%)
S&P 500 1,090.99 +6.92 (+0.64%)
10-yr Bond 4.558% +0.083
30-yr Bond 5.272% +0.073

NYSE Volume 810,183,000
Nasdaq Volume 863,580,000

12:25PM : Indices push to highs for the day...retail stocks are doing well, as Target said after the close yesterday that same-store sales for July were still above plan...the much-watched SOX semiconductor index is down 0.4%, but bouncing off its lows from mid-morning and not hurting the overall market at this time...the BTK biotech index, on the other hand, is up 2.5%, after having plunged over 10% so far in July...NYSE Adv/Dec 1825/1278, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1756/1168

12:00PM : Stocks opened higher and have held their gains with more resilience than seen in recent sessions...there was no strong reason for the higher open...earnings reports were good this morning, but they have been in prior days as well...there were no headline warnings though...and the major technology companies have mostly reported already, so the risk of disappointing news from that sector, which has driven the market recently, is lowered...the top reports were from Verizon (VZ ), which beat estimates, and DuPont (DD ), which missed...

the July Consumer Confidence index was reported at 10:00 ET to have jumped to 106.1 from 102.8 in June, which gave the market further support...oil prices have pushed back towards $42 a barrel today but have not caused much consternation...volume is light, but the tone is better than it has been in recent days although far from exuberant...NYSE Adv/Dec 1847/1215, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1680/1214

11:25AM : Volume is slow again today, particularly on the Nasdaq...NYSE volume is 528 mln and perhaps on track for 1.3 billion, and Nasdaq volume is barely ahead of that at 568 mln...internals are decent as advancers lead decliners by about 3-to-2 on both the NYSE and Nasdaq as indices hold recent ranges...NYSE Adv/Dec 1812/1185, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1667/1132


B-) Why not give credit to the great coverage of the convention so far!!! Not saying it's the reason, just that they won't say it. They blamed the upcoming convention for the pullback earlier. They need a new blather author! :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

56. Who has the Right to Ask for Your Digits?

This is one of my biggest peeves in applying for a job. Certain employers (including the state of WI job site) require your SSN. I have done the usual, I would be happy to provide it upon employment line they teach you at the UE office, but that is impossible for some of these on-line only application processes which unfortunately the state is one of.

http://banking.yahoo.com/20020123b02.html

While any business or agency can ask for your number, few can actually demand it -- motor vehicle departments, tax departments and welfare departments, for example. Also, SSNs are required for transactions involving taxes, so that means banks, brokerages, employers, and the like also have a legitimate need for your SSN.

Most other businesses have no legal right to demand your number.

"There is no law prohibiting a business from asking for your Social Security number, but people don't know they can say no," says Carolyn Cheezum of the Social Security Administration.

"We recommend that you ask if they'll accept an alternative piece of identification. If they don't, flat-out refuse to do business with them. Bear in mind that there's a possibility they'll refuse to provide whatever product or service you're seeking."

Edwards, for example, won't give his SSN to his doctor's office.

"When you go to the doctor's office and fill out the medical information, they ask for the SSN. I leave it blank. Nothing happens. I'm not reporting income from them."

In fact, chances are good that many companies that routinely ask for SSNs will do business with you even if they can't have your number.

more...

[54anickel]

57. Fed's Bluff and Bluster: Where's Sgt. Friday?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Winter/jul262004.html

Prior to May 5th, and for the previous 52 weeks, the Fed "bought outright" (monetized treasuries typically) about $577 million a week. This is a number that is easy enough for even arm chair market players to follow. After all why wait for the Ministry of Propaganda to tell you all this before a flock of "group-think" Congressmen? It's in Barron's market lab section, or in the Fed's web site here: www.federalreserve.gov

But starting May 5th, the spring break smoke and mirrors drunk and orgy began. Here are the weekly figures for debt monetization by the Fed:

5-12: $2,199,000,000 (that's roughly $2.2 billion)
5-19: $1,748,000,000
5-26: $453,000,000
6-2: $1,441,000,000
6-9: $1,598,000,000
6-16: $1,914,000,000
6-23: $63,000,000 (a break in the action to clean Mr. Porcelain from the night before?)
6-30: $2,056,000,000
7-7: $569,000,000
7-14: $2,106,000,000
7-21 $2,507,000,000

The 12 week average is $1,395,000,000 per week. The last 8 week average purchases were $1,532,000,000 - 266% more than the pre-May 5th level.

And for good measure the Fed has elected to be "diligent" about fighting inflation by adding $13,345,000,000 in permanent injections into the system over the last two months.
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/permanent.html. Permanent injections are another mechanism that the Fed uses to inject high powered money into the system. This is effectively a very low interest loan of medium duration (90 days to over a year) to selected financial institutions. Those "friends of Al" then invest and/or speculate in the debt markets. You will often see these "loans" materialize just before a big Treasury auction, when they are then are used to absorb this paper.

Here are the weekly numbers since early May:

snip>

68. What do you make of the big spike in rates today on 10yr?

With a big spike in rates like today, wouldn't the stock market and certainly interest-rate-sensitive areas typically drop? Given the recent hawkish talk by the Fed...?

Of course, with negative real interest rates, the effect should be magnified, not reversed...

[54anickel]

70. There was a disappointing auction today that helped to drive the

price down even lower. Good news is that foreigners bought more of our worth less debt.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5788141

snip>

The $11 billion in new 20-year Treasury inflation protected notes, or TIPS, went at a high yield of 2.47 percent, well above expectations. The sale, the first of its kind at this maturity, drew bids for a very modest 1.49 times the amount on offer.

One redeeming feature was that indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up $5.15 billion, or almost 47 percent of the whole issue. Primary dealers themselves got $5.76 billion of the sale.

[54anickel]

58. 1:46 and a bit of an after lunch reversal

Dow 10,019.29 +57.37 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,850.11 +11.09 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,087.49 +3.42 (+0.32%)
10-yr Bond 4.574% +0.099
30-yr Bond 5.288% +0.089

NYSE Volume 941,592,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,024,714,000

1:30PM: The market drifts off its recent highs, but continues to boast considerable gains for the session... Industry leadership remains impressive with the bulk of all sectors participating in the uptick... Retail and biotech standout as the biggest winners of the day, both, in part, to rebound efforts off their recent losses... Biotech itself has benefited from a bullish call out of Legg Mason: the firm's analysis of the sector's "bellwethers" (Amgen, BiogenIdec, Celgene, Cephalon, Chiron, Genentech, Genzyme, Gilead, ImClone, and MedImmune) shows that the group is undervalued by approximately 15-20%...
Legg Mason adds that the biotech stocks have historically performed well in Q3 (Sept) and Q4 (Dec) as data flow and milestones from major medical meetings typically cause shares to perform positively...NYSE Adv/Dec 1828/1328, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1785/1205

1:00PM: After the close today, two of the largest companies due to report are insurance companies: AFLAC (AFL) and Chubb (CB)...the largest is WellPoint Health (WLP)...PeopleSoft (PSFT) heads the short list of tech companies...Cardinal Health (CAH 43.70 -6.77) is down sharply after its CFO quit amid pending investigations of its accounting practices and ahead of its earnings report due tomorrow morning...NYSE Adv/Dec 1852/1276, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1779/1194



Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1838 (54%) 1779 (56%)
Declines 1333 (39%) 1220 (38%)
Unchanged 182 (5%) 159 (5%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 462 (51%) 607 (61%)
Down Vol* 424 (47%) 351 (35%)
Unch. Vol* 7 (0%) 27 (2%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 22 16
New Lo's 50 149

[54anickel]

59. 2:48 WHOA BabyCakes!!! Look at that rally go!

Dow 10,085.88 +123.96 (+1.24%)
Nasdaq 1,866.41 +27.39 (+1.49%)
S&P 500 1,095.08 +11.01 (+1.02%)
10-yr Bond 4.591% +0.116
30-yr Bond 5.306% +0.107

NYSE Volume 1,162,287,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,266,225,000

2:30PM: Stocks recover all of their lost ground in the afternoon, and set new session highs in the process... Market internals have improved in the past half hour, with advancers now favoring decliners by a 3-to-2 margin at the Nasdaq... The Composite continues to owe its positive standing to gains in computer hardware, software, biotech, and internet... The blue chips, conversely, are much better positioned following renewed buying interest in financial, energy, material, and telecom... The Dow is currently the strongest index, up just over 1%... 22 of its 30 components are showing gains... NYSE Adv/Dec 1814/1412, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1783/1253
2:00PM: The major indices continue to edge lower although they remain a long way from hitting the unchanged mark... One group that has consistently bucked the positive trend has been semiconductor today - the sector has been in the red, trading around 11-month lows... Merrill Lynch issued a fairly cautious opinion on the group, noting that inventories have continued to increase, even as OEM and EMS firms have kept their own balance sheets in relatively better shape...

The firm's analysis of Q2 (June) results reveals a more substantial problem - inventories (for its coverage universe) rose to 77 days, up from 74 days in Q1 and 71 days in Q403... The increase in inventories, according to Merrill, is not seasonal - in its opinion, the industry simply over-anticipated demand in Q3 (Sept)...SOX -0.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1796/1396, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1723/1284

[Zynx]

60. The advance decline line is not impressive given the rally.

However, we are long overdue for a bounce.

[54anickel]

61. Russia Hits Yukos on New Front

To quote dumbson, "It reads like a novel". Great storyline for movie here.

http://www.crmbuyer.com/story/35385.html

Yukos is staggering under a $3.4 billion bill for back taxes that the company says could bankrupt it, and executives there have warned Russia's oil supply could be disrupted if the government follows through on a threat to seize its main production subsidiary, Yuganskneftegaz.

Shares in Yukos slid 21 percent Monday after a Moscow court issued an arrest warrant for Leonid Nevzlin, a top company shareholder under self-imposed exile in Israel, accusing him of murder and attempted murder.
Prosecutors accused Nevzlin of ordering the killing of a married couple in 2002 by a former Yukos security officer, Aleksei Pichugin, who has been jailed since June 2003 on charges he carried out the killing.

The prosecutor general's office said Nevzlin had arranged for the couple's assassination because of fears that the husband, who had worked for Group Menatep, could blackmail Nevzlin and Pichugin with evidence of various crimes.
"Evidence has been gathered about how L. Nevzlin, a director of Yukos and vice chairman of Yukos-Moskva, entered a criminal plot with A. Pichugin to murder specific people who were a danger to Nevzlin and Pichugin themselves," the prosecutors said in a statement.

more...

[54anickel]

62. Google Sets IPO Sights At Eye-Popping Level Of Up To $135 A Share

http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/040726/feature_1.html

Is the price right for Google?
On Monday, Google said it expects to sell 24.6 million shares at $108 to $135 apiece. That's an unusually high price, but it's launching one of the most unusual, and anticipated, initial public offerings in years.

snip>

The IPO already is unusual because Google plans to use a so-called Dutch auction style. Few companies have used such an open auction, which lets most any investor bid for IPO shares. In a typical IPO, underwriters allocate the shares.

Google is using an auction because it wants to reduce cronyism among investment banks. Investors and regulators have criticized some brokerages for selling high-demand IPO shares mostly to preferred customers or would-be customers, such as corporate executives.

The Google IPO also is unusual because of some of the wording in its filing. It states "Don't be evil," and talks of "doing good things for the world."

more...

66. This is absurd

I plan to do a writeup on the Google thing.

All the whole thing is...a computer program running on a server with a fancy name. MSN, AOL, Yahoo, and others have a tiny search field which is just like Googles entirety.

Are people this dumb??? Why pay billions for a computer program any Indian can write for peanuts?

(probably)

Dan

[54anickel]

69. Now, now Dan. Who are we to question the exuberance behind the

Google IPO? Personally, I think it's rather funny, it's almost like the folks at Google are mocking the whole tech-mania market boom of the 90's.

I wonder if they are saying to themselves right now, "Can you believe this crap? It was suppose to be a joke man! We didn't think anyone would take it seriously or that it would get THIS far! Oh well, we're in the money, we're in the money."

Have to wonder what "evil" they were referring to though.

[54anickel]

63. Close - an impressive rally

The markets staged a rally today as the Democratic Convention begins. Investors, reminded fondly of the grand old days of the 90's as they listened to former president Clintons opening ceremony speech, clamored for the buy windows.....:evilgrin:

Dow 10,085.14 +123.22 (+1.24%)
Nasdaq 1,869.10 +30.08 (+1.64%)
S&P 500 1,094.83 +10.76 (+0.99%)
10-yr Bond 4.595% +0.120
30-yr Bond 5.307% +0.108
NYSE Volume 1,610,199,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,771,348,000

Close: The major indices started with modest gains, and only worked their way higher (up 1.0-1.6%) in a reversal of Friday's action... The market's ability to sustain its slight advance - without the selling pressure that generally materializes over the afternoon - gave investors additional confidence in picking up stocks... The major indices soon took off, under the guise of bullish market internals and strong sector leadership... Virtually every industry group participated in the rally, with the one exception being managed care...
The fallout over the California Insurance Commissioner's decision to oppose Anthem's (ATH 81.49 -6.67) acquisition of WellPoint Network (WLP 99.00 -6.21) continues to weigh on shares... Aside from that, technology, homebuilding, retail, material, and telecom service all posted huge gains and led the market significantly higher... The latter's surge was attributed to recent strength and Verizon's (VZ 37.86 +1.36) upside Q2 (June) report... Other factors that contributed to the advance included the better than expected June New Home Sales and July Consumer Confidence reports... The latter - at 106.1 - rose to its highest level since June of 2002...Russell 2000 +2.0, S&P Midcap 400 +1.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 2073/1233, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2147/972

3:30PM : The indices continue to trek higher amid broad-based buying across the market... It's hard to pinpoint today's late-day advance to much more than the market's resilience over this session... As Briefing.com's In-Play notes (a Platinum product), this is one of the first afternoons in recent memory sellers have not erased the morning's gains, so seeing the market up (near the last hour of trading) prompted additional buying interest...

Whether this is a sign of a new trend in stocks is another thing - it's important to point out the indices have yet to make headway against key technical indicators...NYSE Adv/Dec 2070/1196, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2084/1003

2:55PM : Equity market continues to climb, thanks in large part to a strong tech sector... After weeks of large losses (that culminated in two new yearly lows for the Nasdaq, set yesterday and Friday), buyers have finally come back - no doubt in part to the relative value opportunities created by the pullback... Strikingly, semiconductor has reversed course and is now sporting gains of 0.7%... Volume has been fairly moderate today, and the rally initially tentative - thus, buyers were looking for signs of sustainability...

After the indices refused to back down in the face of early selling pressure, more investors have come in to bid stocks higher...NYSE Adv/Dec 1955/1304, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1984/1074


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2073 (60%) 2147 (65%)
Declines 1234 (35%) 972 (29%)
Unchanged 145 (4%) 155 (4%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 1076 (66%) 1358 (76%)
Down Vol* 497 (30%) 396 (22%)
Unch. Vol* 38 (2%) 17 (0%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 31 26
New Lo's 54 169


Have a great evening everyone! :hi:

[Cocoa]

64. the Clinton Effect

:-)

[54anickel]

67. Heh-heh, I'm sure that if the markets would have continued bathing

today, we'd have been posting articles with all sorts of excerpts from Clintons speech. Blame Clenis.

[TrogL]

65. Can you sing "Happy days are here again"?

I didn't even think of a convention boost. Hang on to your hats in November.