War Weighs on Bush Hopes; Ratings Higher

[NoBorders]

"When you see an incumbent president running even, if not slightly behind his challenger at this stage and with approval ratings at or below 50 percent, those are indicators of vulnerability," Abramowitz said. "If he dropped much further than this, I would have to say he was in very dire straits."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=703&e=2&u=/ap/20040727/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_bush_vulnerabilities

[Joanne98]

1. give it a five

[acmavm]

2. How in the hell can the Resident's poll ratings be so high? There is

something DEFINITELY wrong here.

We have the most assinine media in the world. Only a handful of real journalists, the rest are just pathetic. They couldn't compete with journalists in other countries.

Hell, I'm beginning to wonder why they were so hard on Jason Blair. They all make up crap as they go along.

[lancdem]

4. The good news is

Bush's share of the vote hasn't really changed. A Repuke pollster said recently there's a measurable gap between his approval and his share of the vote.

[Lexingtonian]

5. 'cause they aren't

Bush has a 'hard' approval rating of about 45% and 3-5% in very soft support. Some polls show the 45, others get the 48 or 49; it probably depends on how the question gets phrased. The 3-5% are the 'I hope things get better' defensive optimism people afaict. Of course Dowd plays them up- why say 'yes, we're pathetic and I suppose my side is doomed- wait, I wasn't supposed to tell you that.'

Yes, it is pathetic how bad political beat journalists are in reading/understanding elementary polling numbers and trends. Just why they can't figure out what election numbers of 43% (1992), 46% (1996), and 48.5%(~0.5% probably went to Nader)(2000) are telling them about the next number in the series....

'Tis a great mystery that some sage will surely solve for us one day.

[Kinkistyle]

9. He's a known name. Been around for 4 years, and named after ex-pres.

Like the movie "Distinguished Gentleman" where Eddie Murphy gets elected to office by sharing the same name of a dead Senator. Bush has been around for 4 years and is a "Bush". That in and of itself is enuff for Maw and Paw Podunk out in the middle of nowhere. John Kerry is still an unknown commodity (hard to believe, I know) except for what FOX News and FOX lites (CNN and MSNBC) are spouting. But not after this week, and definitely not after the real showdown begins after the Pig Rut...er I mean the Republican Convention.

[lancdem]

3. I like this line

Kerry enters his convention stronger than Ronald Reagan in 1980 or Bill Clinton in 1992, the last two challengers to an incumbent president, though Bush's side argues that he is rebounding.

That's huge.

BTW, Dowd is full of it. No incumbent president in the last 50 years who wasn't ahead by a big margin at this point won.

[dusty64]

8. You'd never know it

listening to the media whores.

[The_Casual_Observer]

6. Ratings Higher????

They have been trumpeting this out of nowhere this week. I would love to see the facts behind this. Its as if they simply can't back off of this game.

[truthisfreedom]

7. same BS. he tries to "talk up the economy" and "talk up the war" just like

they try to "talk up his ratings."

bush is toast, toast, toast.

[heidiho]

10. I heard that the incumbent is usually 16 points higher

at this time due mainly to name recognition. Bush is in BIG trouble - no incumbent has ever been this low at this time.

[PATRICK]

11. The easy question

Where are the new enthused voters who are surprised and happy with the last four years? Much much worse than Carter's situation, the logical expectation for what in effect was a LOSING percentage last time, means that except for the fawning cheerleaders, Bush has no hope whatsoever barring some act of Satan- should God be on vacation.

Like falling for the hype for a madly mismatched Superbowl. So far this is just working like a pressure cooker, irritating and angering more people to get out and vote for Kerry. Bush's base can only save him from
the worst electoral showing ever.

[The_Casual_Observer]

12. mismatched Superbowl

Bravo!

[gasperc]

13. and if our side stays home thinking Kerry's got it in the bag

well, I'm hurting somebody

[NoBorders]

14. Georgie on shaky ground

I thought the article was pretty encouraging actually--even the feigned bravado from Dowd revealed nervousness on their part. They know they're on the cusp of defeat. The GOP will get more nasty as they realize how precarious their situation is.