STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 28 July

[ozymandius]

Wednesday July 28, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 176
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 97
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 229 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 283 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 496
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 979
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 27, 2004

Dow... 10,085.14 +123.22 (+1.24%)
Nasdaq... 1,869.10 +30.08 (+1.64%)
S&P 500... 1,094.83 +10.76 (+0.99%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.60% +0.12 (+2.68%)
Gold future... 387.00 -3.30 (-0.85%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - weekly charts

SUMMARY

We believe that the U.S. dollar and gold are poised to experience dramatic moves over the next 2-3 weeks, providing great trading opportunities.

We envision two scenarios. In the first one, the dollar makes a double bottom and stages a dramatic rally breaking above the 3-year downtrend, while gold and gold stocks get decimated. In that case we would expect some backing a filling this week and break-out above 90 in the dollar index late in the week or in the week after.

If the dollar index closes convincingly above 90, you don't want to own gold stocks in the near term, or bonds, or housing stocks. They are all gong down in flames and in fact you want to be short all of them. So, the 90 level is the line in the sand, if the dollar index breaks above, start taking pilot short positions in gold stocks, housing stocks, and bonds.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

5. Oil Up as YUKOS Told to Stop Sales

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5798071

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices pushed toward fresh 21-year highs on Wednesday after bailiffs ordered beleaguered Russian oil giant YUKOS to stop sales, threatening further strain on tight international supplies.

The news intensified concerns over the lack of spare capacity in the international oil system, as the OPEC cartel pumps at its highest level for a quarter of a century to meet strong global demand growth.

U.S. light crude (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 52 cents to a new 8-week high of $42.36 a barrel, just nine cents below early June's 21-year high. London Brent crude (LCOc1: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 51 cents to $39.05 a barrel.

Prices jumped after a company source said Russian bailiffs told YUKOS' four production units, which together pump 1.7 million barrels a day of oil, to halt sales of property -- including oil.

...more...

[54anickel]

8. Oh, now that reads like some sort of set up or fake out to take oil

higher. Is this so Shrub can step in and "man-handle" Putin and look like the "hero" or something? And the plot thickens...:eyes:
"It reads like a novel". B-)

snip>

It was not immediately clear whether the order would force YUKOS to halt shipments of oil straight away or simply bar the company from signing any fresh supply contracts.

snip>

Chief executive Steven Theede said he believed the order had been misinterpreted, adding that it did not seem logical for bailiffs to halt output.

Theede has asked for access to YUKOS frozen bank accounts to avoid a production halt later this week.

[KoKo]

56. After the closing bell, some investors jumped off the top....interesting

to see that little drop off. Should be interesting tomorrow. Was today's "rally" just "short covering" or the start of the new "bull."
:D (hysterical grin, there)

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.96 Change +0.17 (+0.19%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1091000518-9e32d306-13504

Forex - US remains near multi-week highs after US consumer confidence data

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar remained near multi-week highs after yesterday's extremely strong US consumer confidence data cemented expectations of a self-sustaining recovery in the world's largest economy

The Conference Board said consumers grew increasingly confident in July on the back of an improved jobs outlook, despite a weaker than anticipated payrolls report for June

Its main index jumped to a two-year high of 106.1 in July from a revised 102.8 in June and expectations of a flat reading of about 102. Sabrina Jacobs, currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, said the scale of the market's response to the data suggested it had become "overly pessimistic" on the prospects for the US economy and the dollar in the wake of June's disappointing payrolls report

"This week's price action reflects a rebalancing of those views and we believe there is now more two way risk in the market than there was a few weeks ago," she added

The data added credibility to US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan's assessment last week that the recent batch of weak economic data was merely a blip

Greenspan's optimistic testimony boosted expectations that the central bank will carry on raising the cost of borrowing by a quarter point at its upcoming rate setting meetings, the next one of which takes place on Aug 5

Though the Fed switched gears last month by raising short-term interest rates by a quarter point from 46-year lows of 1.00 pct in a first step to head off inflation, concern about the pace of the US recovery heightened expectations that upcoming rate increases would not be aggressive

...more...

Although the next article was published July 2, I looked to see if the BoJ had made any changes in their policy of intervention. Here is what was put out then:

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_3-7-2004_pg5_19

On foreign exchange, he said Japan stood by the statement the Group of Seven industrialised nations issued after a meeting in Boca Raton, Florida in February that excessive volatility in currency rates was undesirable, while also calling for exchange rate flexibility.

Japan sold 20 trillion yen last year and another 14 trillion in January- March to tame an export-threatening rise in its currency, raising the hackles of some of its trading partners, but has stayed away from the currency market since.

“There is no change to that view and we will continue to monitor the market and deal with matters accordingly,” he said, declining to comment if that meant Japan would resume the controversial intervention policy if the need arose.

The Durable Orders report is due out 8:30 EST - the Beige Book is due at 2:00 EST.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

(edited to fix html)

[UpInArms]

4. Dollar hits 6-week high vs. yen

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB73AB674%2DBEB8%2D48FE%2D9AEE%2D43FAAAC8C30E%7D&siteid=mktw

TOKYO (CBS.MW) - The dollar traded hit a six-week high against the yen midafternoon Wednesday in Asia, after a bullish showing in consumer confidence data spurred a dollar rally in the United States.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index jumped to 106.1 in July from a revised 102.8 in June, a two-year high. Economists were expecting a flat reading of about 102, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. See Economic Report.

In Asia trade, the greenback hit 111.21 yen, its highest level since June 15, and last traded at 111.08 yen, compared with 110.93 yen late Tuesday in the United States.

"The buying and selling of dollars against the yen mostly matched equally," said Tohru Sasaki, chief currency strategist at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo. "Speculators bought dollars for yen, foreseeing a further gain of the greenback, while some investors (including Japanese exporters) sold the dollars, thinking that the dollar's gain may be capped at this level."

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Dollar's gain wiped away by durable good data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38196.3689467593-816299112&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar halved its gain against the Japanese yen and turned fractionally lower against the euro in the wake of U.S. economic data that fell short of estimates. Orders for new military aircraft pushed orders for durable goods 0.7 percent higher in June, according to government data. Economists were expecting new orders to rise about 1.7 percent in June. Excluding defense goods, orders fell 0.4 percent, the third straight decline. The dollar, which reached six-week peaks against its Japanese rival overnight, was quoted at 111.27 yen in early U.S. trading, a gain of 0.4 percent from late U.S. trading Tuesday. The dollar was also firmer against the euro earlier, but has since been bouncing between unchanged and fractionally lower. The euro was fetching $1.2059 in early U.S. trading.

[54anickel]

9. Well the buck had a nice little run up to 90 -

From today's Wrap-up, the next few days could make for interesting dollar watching again.

Last trade 89.77 Change -0.02 (-0.02%)

Settle 89.79 Settle Time 23:34

Open 89.64 Previous Close 89.79

High 90.05 Low 89.58

[UpInArms]

3. U.S. durable goods orders up 0.7% on military jets

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38196.3556944444-816298409&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Orders for new military aircraft pushed orders for durable goods 0.7 percent higher in June, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Orders had fallen a revised 0.9 percent in May and 2.7 percent in April. Economists were expecting new orders to rise about 1.7 percent in June. Excluding defense goods, orders fell 0.4 percent, the third straight decline. Shipments of durable goods also increased 0.7 percent in June, with an 0.8 percent gain excluding defense. Orders for core capital goods excluding aircraft increased 1.2 percent in June after falling 1.9 percent in May.

Here was the projection:

Jul 28 8:30 AM
Durable Orders Jun
reported 0.7%
briefing.com projected 2.5%
market anticipated 1.5%
last month -0.9%
revised from -1.6%

(edited to correct typo)

[UpInArms]

7. Unilever's Sales Decline for First Time in Four Years

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aH.NCaDb9QoM&refer=europe

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Unilever, the world's biggest maker of ice cream and tea, said second-quarter sales fell for the first time in four years as the company sold fewer Magnum bars and Lipton drinks in Europe.

Sales of Unilever's top brands fell 0.2 percent, Finance Director Rudy Markham said on a conference call with reporters. Analysts had forecast a gain of 2.2 percent. The company's shares fell to their lowest in a year in London on concern Unilever may not meet its full-year targets.

Cold weather in Europe damped demand for ice creams and cold teas, and Unilever cut prices to keep up with competitors including Procter & Gamble Co. Co-Chairmen Niall FitzGerald, 58, and Antony Burgmans, 57, have pared hundreds of brands in five years to focus on the most profitable. FitzGerald said low-carbohydrate Ragu sauces and new SlimFast snacks should bolster sales.

``How the company is being run has a lot to do with the poor sales numbers,'' said Corne van Zeijl, a fund manager at SNS Asset Management in Den Bosch, Netherlands, which oversees about $706 million. ``Competitors are running their companies better.''

...more...

Unilever's product - Slim Fast - hopefully will see a drop since they dropped Whoopi :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

10. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:06AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Guarded tone persists in the futures market as rising oil prices, and soft Durables Orders for June, help keep a lid on market's enthusiasm

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Durables a bit weaker than expected, but altogether tolerable when taking into account the upward revision for the prior month... As such, the futures market showed little reaction to the news and continues to point to a flat to somewhat softer start for the cash market

8:22AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Futures market uninspired this morning, and hence, the cash market looks poised for a flat to somewhat softer start... Oil prices nearing 21-year highs amid Reuters report that Russian oil company Yukos has been ordered to stop sales has contributed to guarded tone

8:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Traders have set yesterday's cash market rally aside and have returned this morning in a reserved frame of mind, as evidenced by the futures market, which is pointing to a flat to somewhat softer start for the cash market... The Durables Orders report at 08:30 ET and misgivings about the sustainability of yesterday's rally are holding things in check for the time being

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's short covering gains. September is also consolidating above key support marked by March's low crossing at 1373. Closes below this support level would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1346 later this summer. Closes above the 10- day moving average crossing at 1395.55 are needed to temper the bearish outlook in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low is in or is near. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 3.00 pt. at 1387.50 as of 6:45 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's short covering gains and remains below the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1095.17. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1079.50 is the next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned neutral hinting that a low is in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1095.39 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 pts. at 1091.40 as of 6:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

11. Treasuries are hurting, and yesterdays auction didn't fair too well

either. Not making a lot of headlines though. Maybe I'm just loosing my research touch these days.

US Treasuries slide after soft auction, firm data

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5788141

NEW YORK, July 27 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices slid on Tuesday as a disappointing auction of new U.S. government debt added to pressure from strong economic figures.

snip>

The $11 billion in new 20-year Treasury inflation protected notes, or TIPS, went at a high yield of 2.47 percent, well above expectations. The sale, the first of its kind at this maturity, drew bids for a very modest 1.49 times the amount on offer.

One redeeming feature was that indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up $5.15 billion, or almost 47 percent of the whole issue. Primary dealers themselves got $5.76 billion of the sale.

more...


And this just in:

US Treasuries losing struggle with economic bulls

NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - Treasury prices struggled to hold the slimmest of gains on Wednesday as durable goods data proved soft on first sight, though upward revisions to past figures complicated the picture.

The benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) edged up 2/32 in price, lowering yields to 4.61 percent from 4.62 percent. The gains were paltry compared to the heavy losses suffered in the previous two sessions, however.

snip>

"Still, you come away from the data with the feeling that the second quarter came in like a lion and went out like a lamb," he added.

Capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, did improve by 1.2 percent and the previous month's fall was almost halved, but that was softer than industry surveys had suggested.

Unfortunately for bond bulls, investors have already discounted the softness in June and are looking for an economic pick-up this quarter. Early July data on consumer and business confidence seem to bear out the recovery scenario, and Federal Reserve officials have made no secret of their optimism.

That in turn has convinced much of the market that the central bank will hike interest rates by a quarter-point at each if its remaining four meetings this year, taking its official fed funds rate to 2.25 percent in time for Christmas.

more...

[JNelson6563]

13. "bleeding" is an appropriate term

I looked today and was shocked to see where yields are today. I hadn't seen since yesterday morning as I had to take a day trip for some of my over-throw work.

Have a good day Marketeers! I check in daily even if I don't post. We're moving our local Dem office to our new storefront location and Carl Levin is coming up Monday to help kick things off. Much to do in the meantime.

:toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

15. Great to see you Julie!

Keep on with your excellent work! :hi:

[54anickel]

20. Is there an echo in here?

I had to catch a phone call before I hit the POST button, so I didn't catch your post beforehand.

[UpInArms]

25. I just thought it was a

delayed simulpost :D

[54anickel]

16. Great to see you again Julie!

Keep up the great work!

[JNelson6563]

57. Thanks to you both!

Though the trading day is long over, I jsut was able to read teh rest of all the updates now. Thanks for the greetings. The overthorw progresses nicely. We will see in November how successful we've been in turning our region blue. A sense of urgency kicking in now.

Thanks for always posting all the great blurbs and commentary both 54, UIA and also Maeve, Ozy and the occassional-Marketeers. It's one of the key ways I keep up with the crazy mixed up world of economics.

:toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

12. 9:43 EST markets are open

Dow 10,081.45 -3.69 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,858.57 -10.53 (-0.56%)
S&P 500 1,092.96 -1.87 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.611% +0.016

dollar

Last trade 89.71 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)

[UpInArms]

14. 10:39 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,058.16 -26.98 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,844.67 -24.43 (-1.31%)
S&P 500 1,087.96 -6.87 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.619% +0.024

10:30AM: After a choppy start, the market has moved to it lows of the session. It appears that oil prices at a record high today and talk of European sellers in tech stocks is driving the market lower... After a brief stay in the green, the Dow has turned negative... Oil stocks are the leaders today as US crude futures set a record high at $42.50 on the order to halt Yukos sales. Overall, cyclical stocks are leading the way today: steel, paper, autos. Rail stocks are strong thanks to a strong report from Norfolk Southern (NSC)... Tech stocks continue to be shunned today. SOX -1.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1009/1808, Nasdaq Adv/ Dec 670/1970

10:00AM: The Dow opened lower, but has moved into positive territory as investors appear willing to overlook the weak Durable Goods number this morning... The Nasdaq is also moving off its lows at the open.... Weak groups include brokers, software, telecom, retail... Seeing early strength in oil services, steel, paper, autos... Education stocks are very weak this morning on Career Education's (CECO) guidance and school enrollment numbers: COCO -7.7%, STRA -4.4%.SOX -1.5%, NYSE Adv/Dec 977/1641, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 744/1670

9:45AM: Indices open lower in line with futures indications... Tech earnings reports this morning were fairly bearish, notably UT Starcom (UTSI -21%)... Semis are weak in early trading as JP Morgan and UBS issued some cautious views... The Semi Index (SOX 396.97 -5.94) has fallen below the psyche 400 level again...

[lfairban]

17. The graphics for the S&P are not updating.

When I first looked at the page, the Dow chart was from yesterday and the S&P stopped at 10 am. I hit re-load and the Dow now looks OK, but the S&P is still funky.

You might try the following link for the S&P:

money.cnn.com/ssi/BC/markets-data/sandp.gif

[UpInArms]

18. 11:12 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,017.00 -68.14 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,836.86 -32.24 (-1.72%)
S&P 500 1,083.98 -10.85 (-0.99%)
10-Yr Bond 4.607% +0.012

11:00AM: The selling in the market has picked up over the past 15 minutes as the Dow and Nasdaq set new session lows as there is market chatter that if Yukos shuts down, crude oil could move to $45/bbl area. If the Nasdaq falls below 1830, it'll be its lowest level since October... The 10-yr keeps rising, sending rates lower... Cyclicals continue to outperform techs... Oil services, steel, autos, rail, coal, and terrorism stocks lead the market higher... Volume is picking up as the selling accelerates.NYSE Adv/Dec 969/2004, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 671/2079

10:30AM: After a choppy start, the market has moved to it lows of the session. It appears that oil prices at a record high today and talk of European sellers in tech stocks is driving the market lower... After a brief stay in the green, the Dow has turned negative... Oil stocks are the leaders today as US crude futures set a record high at $42.50 on the order to halt Yukos sales. Overall, cyclical stocks are leading the way today: steel, paper, autos. Rail stocks are strong thanks to a strong report from Norfolk Southern (NSC)... Tech stocks continue to be shunned today. SOX -1.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1009/1808, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 670/1970

[loudsue]

19. Is the PPT doing everything it can to keep the DOW above 10K???

It looks like the big boys are fighting for their last breath these days!

:kick:

[Media_Lies_Daily]

21. IMHO, yes. They are getting increasingly more desperate.

[54anickel]

22. Mogambo (Now armed & dangerous) - Not an FDR fan by any means!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty072804.html

snip>

Russ Winter, in his essay on Kitco.com entitled "Fed's Bluff and Bluster: Where's Sgt. Friday?" has also taken a look at this monetizing of debt, and notes that "Prior to May 5th, and for the previous 52 weeks, the Fed 'bought outright' (monetized treasuries typically) about $577 million a week. But starting May 5th, the orgy began. The 12 week average is $1,395,000,000 per week. The last 8 week average purchases were $1,532,000,000 - 266% more than the pre-May 5th level. And for good measure the Fed has elected to be 'diligent' about fighting inflation by adding $13,345,000,000 in permanent injections into the system over the last two months." This shows what a dry sense of humor Mr. Winter has, because it is NOT "diligent" about fighting inflation when you are creating $13.35 billion in two months. And remember that this is the original High-Powered Money, which is multiplied via the suicidal fractional reserve Ponzi scheme by almost 100. So multiplying $692 billion by 100, the Fed has created, literally out of thin air, roughly $70 trillion, which is a lot of money!

The Treasury has also been busy, and total federal debt hit $7.3 trillion...

snip>

Greenspan, the most despicable man in American financial history, in his testimony in front of the laughable lame-oids of Congress last week, said that he is insistent on inflation remaining less than 2.5%. To show what kind of a liar he is, his own precious CPE is already running at over 3%, and Barron's uses the figures of 3.3% as "rate of inflation, % (annual unadjusted)," and the Economist magazine listed 3.1% as the American rate of inflation. And remember that these are lagging statistics from prices a month ago; the current readings show inflation running north of 4.5% and accelerating.

snip>

Greenspan demonstrated his unbelievable incompetence when he said, "We cannot be certain that this benign environment will persist and that there are not more deep-seated forces emerging as a consequence of prolonged monetary accommodation. Accordingly, in assessing the appropriateness of the stance of policy, the Federal Reserve will pay close attention to incoming data, especially on costs and prices."

For one thing, things are NOT "benign." And even if they were, it will not persist, because there is not one example, and remember that I said "not one example," of rampant "monetary accommodation" in all of history that did not end in inflationary disaster, and to think that one lying, clueless old man has succeeded where every other person, group and country in all of written history failed is to make me laugh, hahahaha!

So the magical 3% inflation rate is now surpassed. And in case you are unfamiliar with the significance of 3% inflation, this is the level of inflation that is supposed to make central bankers jump out of windows, preferring the relative honor of suicide rather than be fired for gross incompetence.

In a related vein, Ron Paul, one of the very few guys in all of government, at any level, that comprehends economics, reminded him that inflation is, in the final analysis, a monetary phenomenon, and Greenspan, surprisingly, was backed into such a corner that he could not disagree. And with that in mind, we turn to Ken Gerbino, who has his own eponymous investment management company, and who has taken a jaundiced look at the money supply, as reported in the M's. He thinks, as I think, that M2 and M3 are not really money, and that the only real money is M1. To that end, he wanted to know just how much money IS there in that M1 statistic? It turns out, as a result of his being on the phone with a Fed official that he does not name, that M1 is actually close to $3.3 trillion, although it is being reported in the official figures as $1.3 trillion. Big difference!

Tom Dyson, handsome and witty bon vivant at the Daily Reckoning website, notes "But what's this? M2 and M3 are collapsing too. Latest figures show that year-over-year M2 growth has dropped to 3.72%, the slowest rate of growth in the money supply since October 1995, also forewarning a slump in real GDP growth."

A clue as to what this means is provided by Doug Noland, who said "An unsound boom - and this one is of historic proportions - is inevitably vulnerable to devastating bust at any point that lending excesses subside. The All Too Clever Greenspan Fed will, at such time, have met its match. The Fed has committed a grave error in mobilizing speculative finance to accomplish its monetary policy objectives."

more...

[UpInArms]

23. US execs charged over $1.1bn bogus income

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/28/1090694030348.html?oneclick=true

In an escalation of investigations into the food industry, four executives of US Foodservice were indicted on Tuesday on charges of inflating company earnings by more than $US800 million ($1.1 billion). Prosecutors said they were continuing to investigate executives there.

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed a separate civil complaint against the four executives of US Foodservice, a distribution subsidiary of the Dutch supermarket conglomerate Royal Ahold. It accused them of overstating income by a smaller amount - $US700 million - and of pressing many suppliers to help conceal fraud.

One of the four and another man, a supplier to US Foodservice, were also charged with securities fraud and lying to investigators about a plan to trade on advance knowledge of the $US3.5 billion sale of US Foodservice in April 2000. And they were sued by the SEC on accusations of insider trading.

At a news conference in Manhattan, prosecutors and regulators said they would continue to investigate US Foodservice, the parent company, and its American suppliers. Kraft Foods, General Mills, Tyson Foods, ConAgra Foods, Sara Lee and HJ Heinz say they had been contacted by regulators.

...more...

[54anickel]

24. Survey: CEO Pay Rises in 2003 (The transfer of wealth continues)

Seems the working class AND investors are certainly getting "butt cheneyed" these days.

http://www.forbes.com/business/manufacturing/feeds/ap/2004/07/28/ap1473807.html

The median pay for a CEO in the United States increased by 15 percent last year, and rose even more - 22 percent - for chiefs at larger companies, according to a survey by The Corporate Library.

The survey, released Wednesday, showed increases in almost every category of executive compensation, including base salary, annual bonus, total annual compensation, restricted stock, long-term incentive payouts and the value realized from the exercise of stock options. The only category to decline from 2002 to 2003 was the value of stock option grants.

Despite some calls for more restraint in CEO pay, it was a better year for the executives than 2002, when total compensation rose by a median of 9.5 percent.

"With statistics such as these, it would appear that any chance of reining in executive compensation has disappeared," the report stated.

The CEOs of four companies - Oracle Corp., Apple Computer Inc., Yahoo Inc. and Colgate-Palmolive Co. - watched their total compensation packages surge by more than 1,000 percent in 2003, largely through exercising stock options and receiving restricted stock.

more...

[54anickel]

26. Has earnings quality really improved?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={97CD80CF-436B-431F-A3C1-9A1BBA58BC3E}&siteid=mktw&dist=&archive=true

SAN DIEGO (CBS.MW) -- In the wake of Enron, Tyco and EDS, has earnings quality in corporate America improved? Superficially -- maybe, "because companies are trying to clean up the appearance of overtly aggressive accounting," says Donn Vickrey, co-founder of Camelback Research, a Scottsdale-based research firm, which also operates Earningsquality.com.

Camelback, Earningsquality.com and Vickrey -- a former accounting professor at the University of San Diego and the son of an accounting professor -- are no strangers to my regular MarketWatch commentary column or to Herb Greenberg's RealityCheck, where the Camelback/Greenberg Earnings Quality Question now runs from time to time.

While companies may be trying to look cleaner, Vickrey says, "at a fundamental level people are still engaged in the same game of how to make performance look better than it really is.

So, while they might now avoid complex off-balance sheet things like Enron engaged in for fear of prison, that doesn't mean they won't game it another way to have a similar outcome. That might be anything form the way Joseph A. Bank (JOSB: news, chart, profile) cleverly calculates its same store sales to the way Biovail (BVF: news, chart, profile) structures research & development activities."

more...

[Robbien]

29. If earnings reporting was really cleaner

they wouldn't be fighting the accountants so hard on how executive stock options are expensed. The government would also be filling all the vacancies in the SEC which have been unfilled for over a year.

[54anickel]

27. Stocks Still Steep for Insiders

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/rebeccabyrne/10174127.html

Although some analysts think stocks are cheap after a monthlong slide, corporate insiders seem to disagree.

After the recent big drop in the major averages, several analysts have declared that stocks are now attractively priced. Indeed, the price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 is currently sitting at an eight-year low, and many technology stocks have seen their multiples contract sharply.

"According to our valuation model, equities are precisely as undervalued as they were overvalued in December 2000," wrote TrendMacrolytics analyst Donald Luskin in a recent note.

The S&P is now trading at 17.6 times trailing 12-month earnings, the lowest level since 1996, according to Merrill Lynch. And Luskin said the technology sector is "as undervalued as it's been at any time since the October 2002 bottom, and is undervalued even relative to the standards of the conservative pre-1996 era."

Some companies seem to think their stocks are a bargain, too. However, plans to buy back stock don't always come to fruition, and the recent actions of corporate insiders suggest this might not be such a good time to get into the market.

Jonathan Moreland, publisher of the newsletter Insider Insights, said his weekly insider buy/sell ratio ended last week at negative 80%, indicating that there were 80% more companies seeing insider sales than insider purchases.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Farm Subsidies Again Take Front Seat at the W.T.O.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/28/business/worldbusiness/28trade.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1091012038-rwMuQ6FWKHJ8+SMhwTZOYw

snip>

Outside, in splendid summer weather, protesters from Oxfam International, the nonprofit advocacy group, stuck four dummies dressed in pin-striped suits upside down in sand and complained that the wealthy regions - Canada, Europe, Japan and the United States in particular - were turning their backs on the world's poorest farmers.

Some African countries demanded over the weekend that the United States agrees to eventually eliminate its cotton subsidies, revisiting an issue that helped destroy talks last year in Cancún, Mexico.

At the same time, a small group of 10 of the world's wealthiest countries, including Switzerland and Norway, were trying to block attempts to rein in their protections of special agricultural products in their countries, like rice for Japan.

The European Union also came under criticism - even as it won praise for offering to cut all of its nearly $3 billion in export subsidies - for trying to protect too much of its agricultural market as special products. Delegates wondered whether complaints from France would eventually undercut the European offer.

Yet all the factions said they understood that if no compromise is reached this week, the Doha round of trade talks to help the developing world could well be ruined, which seemed to make some more determined to reach a pact. After raising serious objections to farm subsidies of developed countries at a news conference, India's minister of commerce, Kamal Nath, nonetheless said: "I'm looking at the next three days with optimism. It is possible to make improvements."

more...

[54anickel]

30. Is the Real Estate Boom Sustainable?

http://www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,14850||T|2421,00.html?f=home_todayinfinance

on edit:
OK, I have no idea how to fix that link. You can get to the article from the home page if interested.
http://www.cfo.com/cfo_home?f=bc

snip>

Home sales last month were 17.4 percent higher than the year-ago period, and numbers for the second quarter were 15.3 percent higher than for the second quarter of 2003. But "June's record breaking pace," writes Moody's analyst John Lonski, might very well serve "as a top" to the recent surge in home sales.

According to Lonski, the continued loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will continue to prop up home prices. "A run-up by mortgage yields that exceeds what is warranted by economic fundamentals serves as the most likely trigger for a significant lowering of home prices," he wrote. "By our estimate, the 10-year Treasury yield would have to quickly jump up from its current 4.5 percent to 6 percent if home price deflation is to menace the U.S. economy. A 6 percent 10-year Treasury yield would imply a 30-year mortgage yield of 7.5 percent to 7.7 percent.

Since the Fed is aware of "the acute sensitivity of home prices to interest rates," continued Lonski, it will probably hike interest rates "with caution" and probably be willing to "tolerate a somewhat higher rate of inflation than otherwise."

The only remaining possible trigger for serious home-price deflation, added Lonski, would be unlikely, albeit catastrophic: "A major sell-off of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign bondholders."


I thought the bond markets can and will move on their own. The Fed may have little if anything to say about what the market does with rates, correct? :shrug:

[54anickel]

32. Are you irrationally exuberant?

http://money.cnn.com/2004/07/27/real_estate/buying_selling/irrational/index.htm

If you think you can't lose with real estate, think again.
July 27, 2004: 5:53 PM EDT
By Sarah Max, CNN/Money senior writer


BEND, Ore. (CNN/Money) - In hindsight, it wasn't the high P/E ratios or absurd IPOs that marked the height of the stock market in the late 1990s.

It was the dimwitted brother-in-law bragging about what a killing he'd made on Pets.com (on paper of course), the college kid hanging on Maria Bartiromo's every word, and the soccer mom explaining how you couldn't lose in "the new economy."

snip>

Now that dimwitted brother-in-law is bragging about the killing he's made on rental houses in Las Vegas (on paper of course), the college kid has dumped Bartiromo for "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki, and the soccer mom is quick to point out that you simply can't lose with real estate.

Does all this enthusiasm spell trouble?

"I would say a bubble is happening," said Robert Shiller, whose book "Irrational Exuberance" (Princeton University Press, 2000) warned, correctly, that the stock market was grossly overvalued by investors' unfounded optimism.

"When it's going to burst is the real question," he said. "It's difficult ."

The Yale economist and principal at real estate firm Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss is now working on the book's second edition, which will among other things look at whether America's obsession with the stock market has been displaced by exuberance for real estate.

more...

[TrogL]

31. Dive, dive dive!!! (12:13 EDT)

Dow... 10,013.69 -32.930 (-0.71%)
Nasdaq... 1,836.17 -71.45 (-1.76%)
S&P 500... 1,083.89 -10.94 (-1.00%)

[54anickel]

33. Hmmm, looks like they are willing to sacrifice the NASDAQ for the

benefit of the DOW and S&P. Have to see if there's more trickle into the NAS over the lunch break.

[TrogL]

35. those numbers don't look right

I think I transposed the DOW and NASDAQ changes and percentage changes

[TrogL]

34. glug, glug, glug (12:29)

Dow... 10,000.93 -84.21 (-0.84%)
Nasdaq... 1,834.90 -34.20 (-1.83%)
S&P 500... 1,082.93 -11.90 (-1.09%)

[54anickel]

36. Recession Watch

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/mauldin072704.html

snip>

"In the 17 years from the end of 1964 to the end of 1981, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained exactly one-tenth of 1 percent. In the bull market that followed from 1982 to the peak in March 2000, the Dow rose from 875 to 11,723, a spectacular rise of 1,239 percent or over 13 times from the starting point.

"We all remember what a difficult time that first period was. There were three recessions, oil shocks, Vietnam, stagflation, the collapse of the Nifty Fifty, Watergate, short-term interest rates rising to 18 percent, gold at $800, and very high inflation. "Bad news on the doorstep" seemed to be the theme of the period.

"Compare that to the subsequent period. Tax cuts and lowering interest rates fueled a boom in the stock market and the economy. Computers invaded our lives, making us more productive. By the end of the period, even Alan Greenspan was extolling the virtues of technology-led productivity growth. Inflation became a nonfactor, and mortgage rates dropped almost as fast as our property values rose. The Internet promised new ways to prosper. Peace seemed to be breaking out, and government budgets ran to surpluses.

"It stands to reason, doesn't it, that the economy did poorly during the long bear market period and far better during the bull market? You would think that, but the reality is far different. Gross domestic product (GDP) actually grew 373 percent from 1964 through 1981. During the period from 1982 until the beginning of 2000, the economy grew only 196 percent, or about half of the earlier period.

"Even if you take out the effects of inflation, you find the economy grew almost identically in both periods. In the first period (a total of 17 years) real GDP growth was 74 percent, and the second (a total of 18 years) GDP was slightly higher at 87 percent.

"Yet if you take into account inflation, you didn't see a profit in your 1966 buy-and-hold portfolio of Dow stocks in 1982; you had to wait another 10 years, until 1992, for an inflation-adjusted return.

"Yet, if you listen to many advisors and analysts today, you should be buying stocks because the U.S. economy is growing, or at least getting ready to grow. "It is always a bad idea," we are told, "to bet against the U.S. economy."

more...

[54anickel]

37. Cliffhanger Financial Markets (more charts & analysis)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wilday/wilday072704.html

Many of the financial market indexes are at critical points this week. These include the NASDAQ, Dow, US Dollar, and Gold. This has been an interesting year so far. Making money has been difficult due to the vacillating nature of the markets. It has also been particularly entertaining to read the arguments of Bull vs. Bear as well as Inflation vs. Deflation. What we've witnessed this year has been consolidation and correction. A decision point is yet to come, though a forecast of what that decision will be can be speculated upon.

Here we see 3 points of support and 3 of resistance defining a downward trend. Additionally, the NASDAQ is hanging on the precipice of its 65 week average. This average has provided resistance several times through the 3 year bear and was also a key breakout point from the '02 to early '03 consolidation. However, the RSI is nearing oversold which has often provided a lift to this index. Perhaps, the most striking feature of this chart is the volume during this correction. The volume is clearly more intense on the down weeks vs. the up weeks. There is clearly distribution occurring at this point. So, despite the RSI nearly bottoming, I believe this index will be going down.

I put a little bullish upward line for the hopeful because there is some chance this index could move higher. This is based on the RSI being oversold and because the formation looks suspiciously like a reverse head and shoulder in the making. I say it looks this way because the Dow did not confirm the NASDAQ's reach for the support line. It must reverse now to be bullish. So this week is critical! Will the Dow reach for the bottom support line or turn for the neckline? Perhaps the volume holds the key. Again there is some bearish distribution on this index, particularly in the last week. If the Dow breaks out I see 11000 as the ultimate top due to the measured move principle. But, more likely the Dow will continue downward.

more...

[UpInArms]

38. 12:57 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,014.28 -70.86 (-0.70%)
Nasdaq 1,835.30 -33.80 (-1.81%)
S&P 500 1,084.34 -10.49 (-0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 4.591% -0.004

Close: Today's dominant theme has of course been the surging price of crude oil and the inverse impact it has had on the stock market. A recent push toward morning highs in the front month crude oil futures contract has resulted in a move to fresh session lows for the market indices. Tech continues to be the biggest drag with the Semi and Disk Drive sectors down over 3% while airline tops the sector loser list at -3.6%. Volume is running at a modest pace with internals decidedly bearish. NYSE Adv/Dec 1012/2127, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 742/2185

12:00PM: Mid-Day Summary: The market continues its recent downward trend today as the Nasdaq looks poised for its third down day in a row. The overall market is weak due in large part to oil prices spiking to a new 21-year high on news that Russia's largest oil firm, Yukos, is halting production. A weak durable orders number did not help. Also, there were disappointing earnings, notably from UT Starcom (UTSI -28%), PeopleSoft (PSFT -2%) and Career Education (CECO -24%). Semis have been weak all day as JP Morgan and UBS issued some cautious views causing the Semi Index (SOX 393.54 -9.37) to fall below the psyche 400 level again... The 10-yr keeps rising, sending rates lower... Cyclicals continue to outperform techs...

The markets are not "closed" - I think it just may be wishful thinking on briefing.com's part :eyes:

[54anickel]

40. They are all really trying to hang-on for those technical numbers

cited in todays Wrap-up.

[54anickel]

39. BOTH PARTIES GET BLAME FOR THE ECONOMIC MESS

Interesting interview....

http://www.nypost.com/business/28134.htm

snip>

Peterson: This is going to sound a bit sanctimonious and maybe self-righteous, but I've got five children and nine grandchildren, and I spend a lot of time thinking about them. I've been deeply moved by the German philosopher, Banhoeffer, who once said, "The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world it leaves to its children." I think we're failing that test.

Me: Do Americans care about these problems — Social Security and the federal budget, the so-called twin deficits? Do they even know about the problems?

Peterson: The American people have been badly served and deceived by not only our political leaders but the media in the sense of being so dominated by the short term.

I know the vast majority of parents and grandparents are not coldhearted about their kids and their grandkids. They have simply been badly misled.

For example, I consider the Social Security trust fund an oxymoron.

more...

[54anickel]

41. Groupthink and the slide into fascism

:scared:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/FG27Aa01.html

snip>

In a further parallel to the 1930s, on July 9 the conservative Chicago Sun-Times (one of the United States' top 50 papers) ran a commentary on US fascism, stating that "fascism' is not an exaggeration", and adding that anyone who doubted this "doesn't know what fascism is". It went on to note: "Some liberals suggest that the administration is capable of canceling the November election on the grounds of national security if it looks like Bush would lose. I doubt this." But on July 11 and 12, news of the administration seeking legal authority for just such an election postponement - a delay in the November election for national-security reasons - widely broke.

Burston had said he believed the US could be poised "on the verge" of a corporate fascism, and eminent political scientist Dr Michael Parenti (Yale PhD in political science and author of 18 books) spoke similarly. And indeed, the slippery slope of "groupthink" in effect provided the basis for the psycho-dynamics dominating the rise of 1930s fascism, its proponents of a "new order" perceiving endless lies, propaganda, repression, mass violence, and even mass murder as legitimate means to what they perceived as their "noble" ends, versus tragic and criminal delusions. Students of history will note the "groupthink" evidenced in Germany's 1930s mass rallies at Nuremberg, though the realization of what was then occurring didn't fully emerge until the Nuremberg War Crimes Tribunals of the 1940s.

snip>

In discussing questions of contemporary fascism with Asia Times Online, Dr Parenti said, "When fascism came to power , what it did was cut back on the public sector, privatize a lot of state-owned industries, abolish inheritance taxes and other taxes on the rich, abolish corporate taxes, cut wages, destroy labor unions, and destroy or undermine opposition parties." He described fascism as simply a tool employed by ruthless power-elites in achieving their ambitions. He added: "There's a concern that we're heading towards fascism, or that we're replicating fascism today."

snip>

In a purely American vein, Parenti recalled that former US secretary of state John Foster Dulles had said: "To get the people to support large military budgets and intervention, you've got to conjure up a threat, and you've got to make this scenario of 'one nation is a hero, another nation is a villain'. It's got to be hero versus villain." And the Senate Intelligence report does aid parallels between Dulles' vision and the Iraq war.

"You fool the people into thinking that you're protecting them, you're watching out for their interests, and you get them to vote against their own interests," Parenti charged.

Comparing today's United States to the 1930s, Parenti addressed the recent US Supreme Court decision allowing Vice President Dick Cheney and the Bush administration to refuse public access to the documents of Cheney's so-called Energy Task Force. Indications exist that oil-war questions were discussed within this group, a September 2003 Inter Press Service article, "Oil war questions surround Cheney energy group", addressing such concerns. Parenti strongly emphasized the implications of the court decision.

more...

[Media_Lies_Daily]

44. This should be mandatory reading for all Americans. Thanks!

[54anickel]

45. Thanks MLD! Glad someone caught it ;-)

[KoKo]

55. Yes...it's very scary and one wonders how far down that path we've

already gone, inspite of our optimism over 2004 election.

I didn't want to be a "doom & gloomer" but, I am...

[54anickel]

58. Hi KoKo! Yep, very hard to turn back the hands of time, much that

needs to be undone once we win in November. Gotta dump an awful lot of Congress Critters. Don't even want to think about what will happen if Shrub gets another term.

[54anickel]

42. 2:27 update

Dow 10,030.20 -54.94 (-0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,840.08 -29.02 (-1.55%)
S&P 500 1,086.88 -7.95 (-0.73%)
10-yr Bond 4.604% +0.009
30-yr Bond 5.324% +0.017
NYSE Volume 1,022,223,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,214,944,000

Close: A modicum amount of buy side interest surfaced as the Nasdaq Comp held slightly above yesterday's low while crude oil futures slipped back after failing to punch through the morning high of 43.05. Strength continues to be limited to energy (oil service, oil, coal) and gold (XAU +1.4%) along with minor upticks in utility. The weakest performing market index is the Nasdaq 100 (-1.9%) which is dominated by large cap tech. DOT -1.2%, SOX -2.5%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1075/2115, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 745/2222
Close: Quiet action slightly above the session lows for the averages. There is little of interest taking place over the next hour so the indices are expected to continue to watch the surging oil market for short term direction The Fed's Beige Book is to be released at 14 ET and traders will be watching for anything in the headlines but no surprises are expected. Volume continues at a moderate pace but it is running ahead of yesterday's rally attempt. NYSE Adv/Dec 1047/2115, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 739/2212

Close: Today's dominant theme has of course been the surging price of crude oil and the inverse impact it has had on the stock market. A recent push toward morning highs in the front month crude oil futures contract has resulted in a move to fresh session lows for the market indices. Tech continues to be the biggest drag with the Semi and Disk Drive sectors down over 3% while airline tops the sector loser list at -3.6%. Volume is running at a modest pace with internals decidedly bearish. NYSE Adv/Dec 1012/2127, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 742/2185

12:00PM: Mid-Day Summary: The market continues its recent downward trend today with the Nasdaq erasing all of yesterday's recovery attempt. The overall market is weak due in large part to oil prices spiking to a new 21-year high on news that Russia's largest oil firm, Yukos, is halting production. A weak durable orders number did not help. Also, there were disappointing earnings, notably from UT Starcom (UTSI -28%), PeopleSoft (PSFT -2%) and Career Education (CECO -24%). Semis have been weak all day as JP Morgan and UBS issued some cautious views causing the Semi Index (SOX 393.54 -9.37) to fall below the psyche 400 level again... The 10-yr keeps rising, sending rates lower... Cyclicals continue to outperform techs... The strongest groups are oil services, steel, autos, rail, coal while most techs and biotechs are hurting.DOT -1.1, Russell 2000 -1.6, SOX -2.3, XOI +0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 985/2109, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 734/2150


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1142 (33%) 824 (26%)
Declines 2084 (61%) 2181 (69%)
Unchanged 146 (4%) 138 (4%)

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Up Vol* 272 (28%) 167 (14%)
Down Vol* 668 (70%) 982 (84%)
Unch. Vol* 10 (1%) 8 (0%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------
New Hi's 25 23
New Lo's 83 153

[54anickel]

43. Oh yeah, and the buck is just a tad above where it started the day out

after quite the roller coaster ride for the day.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 89.72 Change -0.07 (-0.08%)

Settle 89.79 Settle Time 23:34

Open 89.64 Previous Close 89.79

High 90.14 Low 89.58

[UpInArms]

47. 2:55 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,047.46 -37.68 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 1,844.06 -25.04 (-1.34%)
S&P 500 1,087.88 -6.95 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.599% +0.004

2:30PM: The market averages were able to edge to a new afternoon recovery high in the wake of the release of the Fed's Beige Book. While the Fed noted that 5 of the 12 Fed districts noted slower growth, inflation news was reassuring and manufacturing came in stronger in all regions. Additional upticks after the initial flurry of buying has yet to surface and with crude oil still hovering near it session/record high, aggressive follow through will likely prove difficult. NYSE Adv/Dec 1130/2099, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 824/ 2181

2:00PM: The indices have lifted off their respective session lows over the last hour but relatively little has been accomplished. With the crude oil contract still hovering near today's record high it will continue to be difficult for short term bulls to gain any traction. The Fed's Beige Book is due shortly (14 ET) suggesting potential for some volatility but nothing significant is anticipated. There has been a significant amount of volatility, however, in selected individual stocks such as Ask Jeeves (ASKJ -17.4%). The stock has been hammered in the wake of its earnings report and guidance. NYSE Adv/Dec 1133/2083, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 798/2184

1:30PM: A modicum amount of buy side interest surfaced as the Nasdaq Comp held slightly above yesterday's low while crude oil futures slipped back after failing to punch through the morning high of 43.05. Strength continues to be limited to energy (oil service, oil, coal) and gold (XAU +1.4%) along with minor upticks in utility. The weakest performing market index is the Nasdaq 100 (-1.9%) which is dominated by large cap tech. DOT - 1.2%, SOX -2.5%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1075/2115, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 745/2222

dollar

Last trade 89.71 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)

[54anickel]

49. 3:30 and check out the rally! To the moon!!!!!

Dow 10,112.56 +27.42 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,859.61 -9.49 (-0.51%)
S&P 500 1,095.26 +0.43 (+0.04%)
10-yr Bond 4.585% -0.010
30-yr Bond 5.306% -0.001

NYSE Volume 1,302,385,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,541,962,000

[TrogL]

46. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2004-06-28 Monday, June 28 0.744325 USD
2004-06-29 Tuesday, June 29 0.742666 USD
2004-06-30 Wednesday, June 30 0.745879 USD
2004-07-01 Thursday, July 1 0.750469 USD
2004-07-02 Friday, July 2 0.754489 USD
2004-07-06 Tuesday, July 6 0.754091 USD
2004-07-07 Wednesday, July 7 0.757805 USD
2004-07-08 Thursday, July 8 0.759648 USD
2004-07-09 Friday, July 9 0.757174 USD
2004-07-12 Monday, July 12 0.758265 USD
2004-07-13 Tuesday, July 13 0.754205 USD
2004-07-14 Wednesday, July 14 0.756144 USD
2004-07-15 Thursday, July 15 0.755287 USD
2004-07-16 Friday, July 16 0.763825 USD
2004-07-19 Monday, July 19 0.764409 USD
2004-07-20 Tuesday, July 20 0.763417 USD
2004-07-21 Wednesday, July 21 0.755173 USD
2004-07-22 Thursday, July 22 0.761267 USD
2004-07-23 Friday, July 23 0.756487 USD
2004-07-26 Monday, July 26 0.750751 USD
2004-07-27 Tuesday, July 27 0.748895 USD
2004-07-28 Wednesday, July 28 0.751371 USD


The loonie gained modestly against all major currencies today.

[TrogL]

48. PPT must be desperate

What a turnaround!

[UpInArms]

50. 3:30 EST and YEEHAW!

Dow 10,110.21 +25.07 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,860.02 -9.08 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,095.64 +0.81 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.585% -0.010

3:00PM: The averages were able to further trim the declines noted into midday over the last half hour. The worst performing sectors are still holding on to sizeable losses but they are now firmly off the lows. Some buy side interest has been noted in the biotech (BTK +0.6%) and Materials (XLB +0.3%) which have recently pushed in positive territory. Volume is running ahead of yesterday's above average pace with market breadth improving but still firmly bearish. NYSE Adv/Dec 1301/1929, Nasdaq Adv/ Dec 924/2112

[hatrack]

51. If $43 oil doesn't say "rally", gosh, then what does? nt

.

[54anickel]

52. Check out the updated blather - Fedspeak & shortcovering

Isn't that what all great recoveries are made of?

3:30PM: The modest afternoon bounce picked up some momentum lifting the Dow, which was down more than 90 points, and the S&P 500 into positive territory. There has been no change in the dominant factor of the day (crude oil) which remained near record high and merely reassuring comments this afternoon from the Fed's Beige Book. The ability of the Nasdaq Comp to hold above yesterday's low apparently brought some buy side interest into the picture and Merrill Lynch put out a bullish technical call this afternoon. There were reports that short covering added to the upside bias. Issues reporting earnings after the close today include: APPB, AHS, BYD, BOBJ, CTLM, ESRX, FSH, FLR, INSP, JDSU, KOMG, POG, PDG, SOHU, ZMH. NYSE Adv/Dec 1570/1688, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1085/1963



When the dow bites,
The S&P stings,
When I'm feeling sad,
I simply remember recovery things,
And then I don't feel so bad.

[54anickel]

53. End of Day cheerleading article

U.S. stocks in late-day rebound; Dow goes positive


http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040728/0ab3ebfb1cfce43dac1ac5ec0ef0682f_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Stocks rebounded in late-day trade Wednesday with the Dow surging into positive territory, shrugging off earlier caution generated by a spike in oil prices to record highs.
"I think the market has pretty much washed out as far as sellers are concerned," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.

snip>

"You saw today when oil did soar there was really not much liquidation pressure. I think there is a lot of money on the sidelines looking for a chance to buy on weakness -- I think they came in this afternoon," Metz said.

[54anickel]

54. Closing numbers & yada

Dow 10,117.07 +31.93 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,858.26 -10.84 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,095.42 +0.59 (+0.05%)
10-yr Bond 4.585% -0.010
30-yr Bond 5.306% -0.001
NYSE Volume 1,554,185,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,845,054,000

Close: The session began in disappointing fashion with the averages pushing steady lower into midday trade. The main culprit behind the pressure was a spike in crude oil futures to a new record high slightly above $43.00 amid reports that Russia's largest oil firm, Yukos, was potentially going to be halting production. Weaker than expected API and EIA crude oil inventory data add fuel to the crude oil rally. The early economic data didn't help the situation as Durable Orders for June came in at +0.7% vs the consensus of +1.5%. Cautious calls from the Street (JP Morgan, UBS) on the widely followed Semi sector added another negative to the mix. Crude oil stabilized near midday as did the stock market with confined trade dominating into roughly 14 ET. At this point things became a little bit more interesting. The Fed's Beige Book was reported at this time and it noted that while 5 of the 12 Fed districts noted slower growth, inflation news was reassuring and manufacturing came in stronger in all regions (Materials and cyclical sectors rallied). A short term technical call from the Street was also noted in the afternoon but the real spark for the upside acceleration/short covering was again related to oil. Speculation made the rounds that Yukos had reached a settlement in its dispute (unconfirmed) and this appeared to be the factor behind the push into positive territory by both the Dow and the S&P 500. A minor pullback was noted in late trade. Volume was higher at the Nasdaq, which ended with a minor loss, but lower at the NYSE. Market breadth also improved significantly from morning levels but only the NYSE A/D line was slightly positive. Russell 2000 -0.6%, SOX -0.8%, S&P Midcap 400 -0.5%, XOI +0.7%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1673/1612, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1186/1889


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1666 (48%) 1186 (36%)
Declines 1624 (47%) 1889 (58%)
Unchanged 151 (4%) 146 (4%)

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Up Vol* 703 (45%) 605 (32%)
Down Vol* 832 (53%) 1210 (65%)
Unch. Vol* 18 (1%) 22 (1%)

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New Hi's 31 30
New Lo's 87 170


Have a great evening Marketeers! :hi: