THE BOUNCE: (Are you ready for this?) KERRY AHEAD by 2 points IN THE SOUTH

[Dems Will Win]

Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South. While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South. President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.

Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.

There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first is President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics – who will potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and young voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting – will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr. Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore voters in 2000.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

Zogby won't release the totals yet on this new post-speech poll!! Look at age 18-29!! Here come the Millennials!

YEEEHAH!

[Citizen Daryl]

1. "Kerry in a landslide, baby!" n/t

[Dems Will Win]

2. But the pundits all say its going to be close...

[jobycom]

3. Well, if they said it would be a blowout, no one would watch

Pundits only care about ratings.

[squidbro]

18. This is okay for now.

Bush needs to believe he has a chance at winning.

Else, he might try to stage something, declare martial law and change our government into an autocracy.

Let the polls say whatever. I know who I'll be voting for.

Let's also not forget, the 18-29 year old population is huge. By and large, none of them want to be drafted. Despite Bush's rhetoric, American's aren't stupid. There will be a likely draft.

America can handle Iraq unilaterally if need be. Bush was either lying or delusional. Still, with the manpower strain on the military, how can there not be a draft if we continue to fight unilaterally? At least Kerry is willing to attempt to build a consensus. If our allies commit troops, we just might be able to avoid a draft.

There is no hope for such if Bush is put in for another 4 years. The young people know that.

The key now is to get those young people out to the polls to vote.

[Arugula Latte]

25. I want the "Pioneers" and "Rangers"

to realize they threw oodles of money after a skunk.

[Citizen Daryl]

26. Screw the pundits! Go for the irrational exuberance! n/t

[Corgigal]

4. I posted this on another thread

but it should be here: I have never seen this before. EVER


Well something flashed on my TV yesterday that amazed me. I live in a red state in the good ole bible belt and the local news conducted a phone poll. I have been contacted by this poll twice in 2 years so I know they actually call people. It showed Bush and Kerry only one point apart. My jaw hit the floor and I turned to the family and shouted can you believe this? One point separation. Amazing.

Could South Carolina (aka the Baptist belt) actually be in play?
Oh be still my heart

[Dems Will Win]

5. It's the military vote.

One DUer said her husband's unit in Iraq only has 2 guys voting for Bush.

Florida is certainly lost for Bush, and South Carolina and southern Virginia are now happy hunting grounds for our new skipper!

[REVOLT823]

10. I knew the military wouldn't put up with this crap

[Algorem]

15. can't bleev they'd put up with him blaming Aboogreyb on "a few soldiers"

[mom cat]

7. I grew up in the Bible belt and I for one am not surprised.

There are a lot of negative stereotypes of the South. Not everyone wears white sheets on Saturday night. The values that Kerry and Edwarda are enuciating are held deeply in the South. I think that the religious base will start to crumble, because has made a mockery of religion. Kerry and Edwards are speaking straight to the values and beliefs of the faithful....except for the extreemists.
Nice post for #999 Corgigal. Welcome to the 1000 club. :toast: :hug:

[Carni]

6. Let's all send "depends" to the whitehouse

To the attention of Karl Rove!

[shockingelk]

8. I think a Massachusetts liberal running for prez ....

Can win the South.

TX, LA, MI, AR, GA, SC, and NC all went to the first JFK.

[quaoar]

9. Here in Alabama

The latest poll shows Bush up by 21 fucking points.

You have no idea how depressing that is.

[Norton]

12. Sweet Home Alabama?...

Neil Young was right ya know!

"Alabama"
Oh Alabama
The devil fools
with the best laid plan.
Swing low Alabama
You got spare change
You got to feel strange
And now the moment
is all that it meant.

Alabama, you got
the weight on your shoulders
That's breaking your back.
Your Cadillac
has got a wheel in the ditch
And a wheel on the track

Oh Alabama
Banjos playing
through the broken glass
Windows down in Alabama.
See the old folks
tied in white ropes
Hear the banjo.
Don't it take you down home?

Alabama, you got
the weight on your shoulders
That's breaking your back.
Your Cadillac
has got a wheel in the ditch
And a wheel on the track

Oh Alabama.
Can I see you
and shake your hand.
Make friends down in Alabama.
I'm from a new land
I come to you
and see all this ruin
What are you doing Alabama?
You got the rest of the union
to help you along
What's going wrong?

[merh]

13. Yes I do, I am in MS and the numbers don't look good here.

But Obama is going to be speaking in Jackson MS next week. I have to find the details.

[TedsGarage]

22. What is Obama doing in Mississippi?

Barack, we love you, but you belong here in Illinois.

[merh]

24. Fund raising and speaking for the party!

I suspect that he was invited to try to awaken the dems in MS, its also a fund raiser for his campaign.

[Wednesdays]

11. There are a few "W '04" bumper stickers

around Oklahoma City, but not that many. Support for * is very soft here.

(I know, Oklahoma isn't a "southern" state, but still very much a red state and indicative of how the political winds are blowing.)

[nightperson]

14. What 18-29 year old that can spell "draft" would vote for Bush

and

Team

Chickenhawk

:shrug: ?

[DeadHead67]

16. That 'Chickenhawk' link is EXCELLENT !!!!

The lists of Democrats who served in the military and Republicans, nearly all of whom did not, is priceless. I 'saved' it and plan to use it in the upcoming struggle. Thanx!!!:bounce:

[marlakay]

17. Bush can't count on military vote!!

My son-n-law officer in airforce, started out with Bush 3 years ago now both him and my daughter and many others voting Kerry!!!!

[Guaranteed]

19. My God...no wonder my grandfather seemed so depressed today

After seeing Kerry's speech, he just knew (of course the poll numbers have nothing to do with that, right? Or am I wrong here?)

Anyway, I think the Republicans know that they're in serious trouble, especially after Kerry's speech. It....was....STRONG.

[lebkuchen]

20. Hit those southern papers with letters to the editor

to ensure public opinion doesn't sway before the election.

[0007]

21. .........wait, watch out for this bounce....big things to come.

When Zell Miller speaks at the republican convention. Kerry will get another bounce. Watch and see.

All right you girls, "Bounce your Boobies" and sing it!

[Disturbed]

23. Kerry Campaign

They should play that video of his Bio before every speech he makes in his 18 state tour.

[Rose Siding]

27. Isn't this analysis of the pre-speech poll?

That had the same #s for the So

[carolinayellowdog]

28. The South has never been *'s best region

Republican strength is greatest in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states. Racial minorities and liberals give most Southern states a 40% Dem base lacking in the more solidly Republican areas.

[Zomby Woof]

29. how many threads on this now?