Economists Lower 3rd-Qtr U.S. GDP Forecast in Survey

[swag]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aS_OycFM1Aeg&refer=home

. . .

The world's largest economy will probably grow at a 3.9 percent annual rate from July through September, slower than the 4.2 percent estimated last month, according to the median of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. For the year, the economy is forecast to grow 4.4 percent, a tenth of a percentage point less than what was estimated in the June survey.

``The high energy prices are taking a toll on consumers and now, with less hiring, there is less income as well,'' said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland. DeKaser marked down his estimate for third-quarter growth to 3.7 percent from 4.8 percent.

Hiring slowed for a fourth month in July as businesses added 32,000 employees to payrolls, the fewest this year. Concern about possible supply disruptions pushed crude oil prices to a record last week. Less hiring and higher fuel costs may knock consumer spending and give the Federal Reserve greater pause as policy makers consider interest-rate increases this year, starting with tomorrow's meeting.

``There can be no mistaking the reality check of this summer's disappointing data,'' Stephen Roach, chief economist for Morgan Stanley in New York, wrote in a report today. ``This recovery now looks more mythical than ever.''

. . .

[swag]

1. Note to all: Steve Roach is the Morgan Stanley economist

who said as early as Q4 last year that "this recover is rented from Walmert," and predicted that things would begin to fall apart around the second half of 2004.

Right on time.

[phillybri]

2. Roach is great...

He always keeps it together...

[Frodo]

3. That doesn't add up.

That means they either expect the second quarter to be revised upwards substantially or they are predicting 4th quarter growth in excess of 6%.

Based on what? That would be a pretty big jump.

[swag]

4. Sorry

I don't have details on the survey.

Perhaps you would email the author of the piece linked at the site at the bottom of the story and report back.

Thanks in advance.

[Mountainman]

5. "This recovery now looks more mythical than ever"

Hear that Fox and CNN ?

[Massacure]

6. Looks like they gotta lower the bar for Bush (Again)