http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5770431/Despite veterans' ad, Kerry remains in the lead
MSNBC
Updated: 10:00 a.m. ET Aug. 20, 2004
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A new Pennsylvania poll from Franklin & Marshall College released Thursday showed Kerry with a six-point lead, 48 percent to 42 percent over Bush, but still within the margin of error, which was 3.8 percent.
The undecided amounted to eight percent. If one accepts the traditional pollster’s wisdom that two-thirds of the undecided ultimately vote against the incumbent, Kerry looks to be in fine shape in Pennsylvania.
Bush has made a remarkable 32 visits to the Keystone State since becoming president. This is puzzling in that he lost Pennsylvania by more than 200,000 votes last time. This could end up as one of the smartest — or most ill-advised — investments in modern campaign history.
But Pennsylvania illustrates the point that we don’t know for sure what the battleground states are and neither do the candidates. It is easier to say which states are not tossup states (Alabama, California, Utah, Rhode Island) than which ones are.
And this week's list of tossup states may not be the same as the week of Oct. 25.