STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 2 September

[ozymandius]

Thursday September 2, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 140
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 61
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 265 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 319 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 532
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1015
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 1, 2004

Dow... 10,168.46 -5.46 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq... 1,850.41 +12.31 (+0.67%)
S&P 500... 1,105.91 +1.67 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.12% -0.01 (-0.22%)
Gold future... 410.80 -1.80 (-0.44%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[Systematic Chaos]

1. Good morning you wonderful SMW regulars!

Nothing insightful to add here, but I notice the dollar isn't faring so well lately....

I'm wondering also just what the impact of this major hurricane will be when all is said and done? They're saying it might actually travel parallel to the coastline for quite a distance before making landfall in a zone that hasn't seen a major hurricane in a century or more. This could be ugly. My prayers are with you people out there. :(

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.91 Change +0.04 (+0.05%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH43348_2004-09-02_11-57-22_L02333941

FOREX-Dollar cautious on US payrolls jitters

LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - The dollar remained near recent one-week lows against the euro and Swiss franc on Thursday as investors grew cautious Friday's U.S. jobs data might add to recent weak U.S. data and cloud the interest rate outlook.

Wednesday's Institute for Supply Management data showed national manufacturing activity expanded for a 15th consecutive month but the reading fell to its lowest level in 10 months.

Recent U.S. data have mostly underperformed expectations and analysts say another weak jobs number after past disappointments would cast doubts over a widely-expected interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this month.

"The market is unwilling to place bets before the data. Recent data have raised questions over (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan's assertion that a soft patch in the economy is transitory," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York.

"If we don't see a healthy rebound in the jobs data it will underpin growing pessimism the economy is not as rosy as Greenspan thinks."

...more...

oopsie!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38232.3548726852-819429277&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Jobless claims rise sharply due to hurricane

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose sharply in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending August 28 rose 19,000 to 362,000. It's the highest level since the week ended April 10.The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to fall to 340,000. A Labor Department spokesman said a portion of the increase in claims was a result of Hurricane Charlie. The spokesman said the hurricane accounted for a "little less than half" the increase. The four-week average of initial claims rose 6,250 to 343,000. This is the highest level since the week ended July 31. Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state jobless benefits fell 5,000 to 2.882 million in the week ending August 21. This is the lowest level since the week ended July 10. The four-week moving average of continuing claims fell 4,750 to 2.89 million.

other reports for the day:

Sep 02 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 08/28
report -
briefing.com anticipates 335K
market anticipates 340K
last report 343K
revised -

Sep 02 8:30 AM
Productivity-Rev. Q2
report -
briefing.com anticipates 2.9%
market anticipates 2.7%
last report 2.9%
revised -

Sep 02 10:00 AM
Factory Orders Jul
report -
briefing.com anticipates 1.4%
market anticipates 1.1%
last report 0.7%
revised -

It's MaeveDay!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

3. U.S. Q2 productivity revised lower to a 2.5% gain

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38232.3549421296-819429338&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Productivity in the U.S. nonfarm business sector increased at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter, revised down from an earlier estimate of 2.9 percent, the Labor Department estimated Thursday. The downward revision was slightly larger than expected. Economists polled by CBS.Marketwatch thought non-farm productivity probably expanded 2.7 percent in the revision. Unit labor costs - a key gauge of inflation and profit pressures - increased at a 1.8 percent annual rate, down from the earlier estimate of 1.9 percent. Over the past four quarters, the output per hour of American businesses has increased at a 4.6 percent rate, down from a 5.6 percent rate in the first quarter.

[54anickel]

23. U.S. 2nd-Qtr Productivity Rises at 2.5% Rate; Costs Up 1.8%

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aa.ZVMQQuCi0&refer=home

snip>

Productivity, which gauges how efficiently the economy operates by measuring the amount of work done by an employee in an hour, slowed from a 3.7 percent annual rate in the previous three months, the Labor Department said in Washington. The government previously estimated second-quarter productivity at 2.9 percent. Labor costs rose at a 1.8 percent annual rate, the fastest in two years.

Companies may be approaching the limits of efficiency gains that they can wring out of their existing workforces, and economists forecast increased hiring in coming months. In the last two years, productivity exceeded 4 percent on average.

``The real question is whether productivity growth has peaked, and I think it's likely that it has,'' said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania, before the report. ``With slower economic growth and gains in employment we're looking at a slowdown in productivity.'' After a 9 percent rate in the third quarter last year, productivity has slowed.

The median forecast of 58 economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for productivity to grow at a 2.7 percent rate in the second quarter. Unit labor costs, or the amount paid for each unit of production, were expected to rise 2 percent.

Last week the government lowered its estimate of second- quarter gross domestic product to a 2.8 percent annual rate from the 3 percent rate it estimated a month earlier. The economy cooled from a 4.5 percent growth rate in January through March.

more...

[UpInArms]

21. they're spinning the factory orders report - but here are the

numbers:

10:00am 09/02/04 U.S. JULY FACTORY ORDERS UP 1.3% VS. 1.2% EXPECTED

10:00am 09/02/04 U.S. JULY FACTORY SHIPMENTS UP 0.6%

10:00am 09/02/04 U.S. JULY FACTORY INVENTORIES UP 0.8%

10:00am 09/02/04 U.S. JULY DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS REVISED TO 1.6% VS. 1.7%

10:00am 09/02/04 U.S. JULY FACTORY ORDERS EX-AIRCAFT DOWN 0.4%

U.S. July factory orders up 1.3

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38232.4169212963-819436719&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Orders for U.S.-made factory goods rose 1.3 percent in July, boosted by orders for new civilian aircraft, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. The increase was in line with expectations. Factory shipments increased 0.6 percent, unfilled orders rose 1.2 percent and inventories increased 0.8 percent. June's orders were revised higher to 1.2 percent from 0.7 percent previously. All of July's increase was accounted for by the 101.3 percent increase in orders for civilian airplanes. Excluding civilian aircraft, factory orders fell 0.4 percent. Orders for durable goods in July were revised slightly lower to 1.6 percent from last week's preliminary estimate of 1.7 percent. Orders for nondurable goods increased 1 percent in July.

[54anickel]

4. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose 19,000 Last Week to 362,000

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a6QKG_Ox_Q9M&refer=home

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. initial jobless claims rose last week to the highest level since April 10, partly reflecting lingering effects of Hurricane Charley, a government report showed.

First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose by 19,000 to 362,000 in the week ended Aug. 28 from 343,000 the week before, the Labor Department said in Washington.

Floridians put out of work by Hurricane Charley accounted for about half of last week's increase in initial claims, a Labor Department spokesman said. Claims have averaged 343,000 in August. The economy probably created 150,000 jobs last month, about five times the number added in July, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before tomorrow's report.

Claims are ``consistent with what we've seen at this point in past recoveries,'' said Timothy Rogers, chief economist at Briefing.com in Boston, before the report. :eyes:

more...

[54anickel]

5. German Unemployment Increases Most in Five Months (Update4)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aTr92sQYJ0dU&refer=europe

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Unemployment in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, rose the most in five months in August as stagnant consumer spending and the threat of slowing growth discouraged executives from hiring.

The number of jobseekers in Germany rose a seasonally adjusted 24,000, to 4.41 million, the highest since May 2003, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said. The jobless rate was unchanged at 10.6 percent.

German business confidence declined for a third month in four in August and consumer confidence for September fell to the lowest in more than a year. Companies including Volkswagen AG, Europe's biggest carmaker, are asking employees to forgo pay increases or work longer in order to secure their jobs.

``My goal is to avoid having to cut jobs,'' said Joachim Rohwedder, chief executive officer of Rohwedder AG, a maker of industrial robots that employs 750 people, in a telephone interview from his office in Bermatingen in southwestern Germany. He said the company had agreed with labor unions to increase weekly working hours to 40 for 280 employees.

Protests

Seven consecutive monthly rises in unemployment are eroding support for Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's government as it prepares to implement the first reductions in jobless benefits since World War II. Tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets on each of the past five Mondays to oppose the cuts.

more...

[UpInArms]

6. articles regarding housing prices

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B129BCCA9-F2E4-496A-AF9F-E322EBC8DEDA%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

Q2 home prices rose most in 25 years
`No signs' of slowing of house price inflation, U.S. says

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. home price jumped 9.4 percent in the second quarter, the biggest year-over-year gain since 1979, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said Wednesday.

The numbers show that home-price appreciation accelerated in the quarter; the year-over year gain in the first quarter was 7.7 percent.

"These data show no signs of the long- anticipated, and ultimately inevitable, slowing of house price inflation," said Patrick Lawler, chief economist at the oversight office, in a statement.

Home prices were up 2.2 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter. They'd risen 1.45 percent in the first quarter and 3.71 percent in fourth-quarter 2003.

Over the past four quarters, house-price rises have exceeded gains in the prices of nonhousing goods and services incorporated into the Consumer Price Index. House prices rose 9.36 percent, while the price of other goods and services rose 3.03 percent.

"House prices may become increasingly vulnerable to potential sustained higher interest rates in the future, but that has not happened so far," said Lawler.

...more...

http://dallas.bizjournals.com/dallas/stories/2004/08/30/daily32.html?jst=b_ln_hl

Metroplex house prices growing faster than incomes

Almost one-third of homeowners in the Dallas-Fort Worth area -- up 20 percent from 2000 -- spend a third of their incomes or more on housing this year, according to figures released last week from the U.S. Census Bureau.


Housing costs are considered reasonable if they take 30 percent or less of a household's income, but as housing prices rise and incomes stagnate, more and more North Texans are finding themselves living in homes they can't afford.

On a positive note, however, the Dallas-Fort Worth area still remains one of the most affordable in the nation, among large metropolitan regions.

The housing cost statistics come from the census bureau's American community survey, which polls 800,000 households across the nation, measuring demographic, social, economic and housing characteristics for the nation, states, and certain counties, cities and regions.

The survey found that median household incomes in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex stayed steady from 2000 to 2003 while median home values climbed by about 16 percent. In spring 2003, the median family income in the Dallas area could qualify to purchase a home that was 9 percent higher than the median-priced home. In spring of this year, the number had dropped to 1 percent.

Not coincidentally, the number of Dallas-area houses posted for foreclosure in September climbed 21 percent from a year ago, and the total is expected to hit about 15,000, according to the Addison-based Foreclosure Listing Service Inc.

[54anickel]

7. Affluent Investors' Optimism Declines in August

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wrap2.1sep02,1,3688293.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Optimism among wealthy U.S. investors polled monthly by a consulting firm fell in August to its lowest level this year as uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and higher fuel prices eroded their economic outlook.

Chicago-based Spectrem Group said Wednesday that its "affluent investor index" hit a 2004 low of 5 in August. The index's most aggressive investment orientation is 100.

"Just three months from election day, investors cited the presidential race as their biggest cause for concern about the economy, followed closely by higher oil and gas prices and to a lesser extent the Iraq war," said George Walper, president of Spectrem Group.

"Affluent investors grew increasingly pessimistic in August, with their investment outlook declining close to bearish levels," Walper said. "With political issues front and center, it's not at all clear what, if anything, will reverse this negative trend in sentiment prior to Nov. 2."

The proportion of wealthy investors indicating that they did not intend to invest at all rose to 36% in August from 29% in July.

[54anickel]

8. Fewer Dividends Increased

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-dividend2sep02,1,300136.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Fewer U.S. companies raised cash dividend payments to shareholders in August than in the same month a year earlier, suggesting that some chief executives turned wary about parting with corporate savings.

snip>

The last two months mark a change from the trend of the previous year. Since May 2003 — when Congress cut the maximum personal tax rate on dividend income to 15% from 38.6% — many firms have responded by sharply raising their payouts.

The trend of higher dividends coincided with a boom in corporate earnings as the economy rebounded. Dividends typically are paid directly from profit.

The new reluctance to raise dividends could reflect corporate managers' concerns about the health of the economy and a possible slowdown in profit growth, analysts said.

snip to the "or maybes">

It's possible companies are withholding higher dividends in favor of greater capital spending, analysts said.

Some companies also may be concerned that a victory by Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry in the presidential election could mean a rollback in the dividend tax cut, said Joseph Lisanti, editor of S&P's Outlook investment newsletter in New York.

[54anickel]

9. BIG SIX CAR PUSH FALLS FLAT

http://www.nypost.com/business/19084.htm

September 2, 2004 -- U.S. auto sales dropped 12 percent to 1.4 million vehicles in August, as near-record gasoline prices hurt demand. The six largest automakers all had sales drops for the first time in almost two years.
Cars and light trucks sold at an annual rate of 16.6 million units in August, down from 18 million, according to Autodata Corp.

Sales at General Motors fell 14 percent from a year earlier while Ford's sales declined 13 percent and DaimlerChrysler slid 5.7 percent, with its Chrysler unit down 6.5 percent. The slump hit Japanese makers, too, as revenue at Toyota, Honda and Nissan fell.

Fuel prices have prospective buyers "evaluating whether they should move down to a car or a smaller SUV and that takes time," Global Insight Inc. forecaster Rebecca Lindland said. "They know they can wait because incentives aren't going away."

Consumers are putting off vehicle purchases with gasoline at levels about 25 percent more than at the beginning of the year. U.S. consumer confidence fell in August for the first time since February, partially because of higher fuel prices, forcing the U.S. to scale back estimates of economic growth.

more...

[Tarheelhombre]

12. How do fuel prices hurt car sales?

[54anickel]

15. Wondered the same thing when I read that. It's more like rising fuel

prices hurt ALL sales as it eats away at ones disposable income. But that type of statement would point to an over-all economic slowdown. Can't have that now, can we?

Guess the author didn't want to be known as an "economic girlie-man".

[ozymandius]

16. I am extrapolating this line of logic:

Fuel prices have prospective buyers "evaluating whether they should move down to a car or a smaller SUV and that takes time," Global Insight Inc. forecaster Rebecca Lindland said. "They know they can wait because incentives aren't going away."

Gas prices have been all over the scale between $1.60 and $2.00/gal for the past six months. It stands to reason that potential car buyers are weighing whether or not gas prices will settle into a 'low' or accelerate to a permanent high and get higher. So if you were considering the purchase of a new vehicle that has a mileage rating of 15mpg or less, it stands to reason that fuel cost would factor high in the purchase of that vehicle.

Second point: if incentives are better than they have been in the past year, one might gamble on lower prices and higher rebates on the purchase of the vehicle. The smart shopper will usually wait until October to purchase a car. The 2005 models are moving onto the lots and car dealers are anxious to unload last year's models to make room for the new ones. Dealers also want to avoid paying ad valorem taxes on old inventory. Better the incentive for buyers to wait.

edit: spelling

[54anickel]

20. Oh Ozy, there you go again. Pulling logical analysis and making sense!

This is the week of the RNC where all serious decisions and discussions must be based purely on fear and emotions!

Your second point is a textbook example of the expectations of deflation. Wait to purchase since you expect the out of pocket expense to be lower in the future. Granted, with vehicles it's more than likely a temporary delay of purchase. I'm waiting to see if that expectation will hit the housing market in the next year or so if/when credit tightens.

[UpInArms]

10. today's layoff news

http://www.manufacturing.net/ctl/article/CA450216?spacedesc=latestNews

Newport plans closings, layoffs to integrate Spectra-Physics following acquisition

Irvine, CA—To save $10-12 million per year, Newport Corp. plans to shutter two manufacturing facilities, consolidate product lines, operations and administrative functions, and layoff 75-100 employees, following its recent acquisition of Spectera- Physics in mid-July. Newport will make these changes over the next nine months.

The plants that Newport will close include one it acquired in Oroville, CA, and an existing facility in Chandler, AZ. Manufacturing activity at these two plants will be relocated to other facilities in California and Arizona.

Meanwhile, duplicate product lines, administration and operations identified in the U.S. and Europe will be consolidated into other company locations. Newport adds that it’s downsizing mostly due to these consolidations, and that redundant positions will be eliminated in operations, information technology, accounting, marketing, communications and human resources. While some current staff will be relocated and some other new ones hired, Newport acknowledges its overall plan will reduce its total workforce by 4-5%.

...more...

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/02/Business/Capital_One_works_to_.shtml

Capital One works to soften layoffs

The company takes pains to help the 1,100 employees it's laying off to find new jobs. A job fair Wednesday is one early effort.

excerpt:

Capital One endured a flurry of negative publicity in July when it said it was eliminating 1,100 jobs at its sprawling Tampa center. Some objected to the company receiving millions of dollars in tax breaks for bringing the short-lived jobs to the bay area; some workers complained their jobs were being shipped to locales outside the United States.

But in the weeks since its decision, the Virginia financial services powerhouse is showing a gentler, more caring side to laid off employees. With each layoff comes paid time off to search for a new job, one on one career counseling, the string of job fairs and in-house seminars on such topics as productivity, interviewing skills, dressing for success and "negotiating your worth." One full-day seminar, which employees can attend on company time, offers tips for entrepreneurs.

Wednesday, the company staged the first of several job fairs it's hosting for soon-to-be-former employees such as Verba. Twenty-eight companies came to interview and take resumes from about 800 job seekers throughout the day.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Aurora eyes layoffs, closings - $11 million in spending cuts

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~53~2374298,00.html

Aurora - The city manager has proposed closing two pools, a recreation center and a library in an effort to cut $11 million in spending next year.

Fifteen city employees would be laid off, 28 vacant positions wouldn't be filled, and workers would be forced to pay more for health care, according to the proposal that was released Wednesday.

"Like most cities, Aurora has seen a cooling off in sales taxes as Colorado and the Front Range has lost jobs," said Mayor Ed Tauer. "Our job now is to work within our budget and provide the most important services the best we can. There are no easy cuts. Every program we have is serving someone."

<snip>

City Manager Ronald Miller said weak revenue and increases in mandated costs have put the city in a hole and are forcing the adjustments.

<snip>

This year's budget shortfall was $4.5 million.

...more...

[ozymandius]

11. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

ECONOMIC DATA INDICATES SLOWING ECONOMY

Bond prices were higher once again this morning on continuing concerns of an economic slowdown. Treasury yields touched five-month lows in the first hour of trading as bond investors worked on digesting the weaker than expected ISM manufacturing data. The recent weakness in economic reports runs absolutely contrary to the quote of the year that must now be awarded to Mr. Arnold Schwarzenegger for this beauty he let out last night at the Republican National Convention, “To those critics who are so pessimistic about our economy, I say: Don’t be economic girlie-men!” What a classic…the problem stems from the fact that while Arnold was rehearsing his speech the last few days, he failed to check-in on the currently deteriorating economic trends. Let’s backtrack to Monday and look at a brief recap of the economic news so far this week to see why Arnold’s rousing words don’t have much muscle.

-cut-

One of the things that really caught my attention this morning was when I heard a news commentator say “interest rates were back to a five-month low.” The first thing I thought was, “Wow, is that an understatement!” While the statement is accurate, it can be construed as somewhat misleading. I look at it from the broader perspective to say interest rates are now roughly at half-century lows. These historically low interest rates are really set at desperation rates to keep the credit (money) flowing. If you take a look at the chart of the 30-year bond price you can easily see it is very close to its high for the last few decades or at least on this chart the most recent decade. The symmetrical triangle that has formed is an unsustainable formation since it must break out either up or down before reaching the apex. Note that these formations typically resolve themselves before 85% of the triangle is consumed. Count the total number of days in the triangle and it should resolve with at least 15% of the days remaining before the apex is reached. The main thing I really wanted to show is the area above the thin red line. I call that the nosebleed section for the 30-year bond. In the last many decades it has only traded above the red line for a grand total of about 12 weeks. Today the 30-year bond closed at 111.41 driving the yield down below 5%. Five percent for 30-year debt…now that’s cheap money.

-cut-

Stocks and the Dollar

With all the money moving into bonds recently with perceived economic weakness, I’ve been scratching my head as to how stocks and the dollar are also holding their ground. The dollar barely moved today versus most major currencies. The Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar were up about a half-percent and the euro and yen were slightly weaker against the U.S. dollar. With no yield on U.S. Treasuries relative to inflation, a massively negative trade balance, and record government budget deficits I believe the dollar will move lower.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

13. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

09:14 ET: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: - 3.0. Still trading below fair value, the futures trade signals a lower start for the indices at the end of the pre-market session.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Futures indications improve some but continue to point to a lower open for the cash market... Disappointment surrounding this morning's economic data and yesterday's 4% spike in the price of crude oil have curbed buying enthusiasm in the early action.

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: - 0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Futures trade drops on the weaker than expected revision to Q2 productivity and the weekly jobless claims report... Initial claims rose 19K whereas Q2 productivity was revised 0.4% lower... As a result, the cash market is poised for a lower open.

8:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Looks like a slightly weaker open for the cash market... The past two days of gains in the Nasdaq, in particular, has merited some caution particularly ahead of INTC's mid-quarter update tonight.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates just above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1376.80. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term has likely been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1353.50 would confirm that the rebound off August's low has come to an end. If September extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 1351.78 is the next downside target. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 2.50 pt. at 1367.50 as of 5:45 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1103.05 and the 10-day moving average crossing at 1102.47. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought hinting that a short- term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 40-day moving average crossing at 1094.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If this month's rally continues, the 62% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1113.16 is the next upside target. The September S&P 500 Index was down 0.30 pts. at 1106.40 as of 5:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

14. U.S. stocks aim lower

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040902/3802990df40142bb7b06e0bc5bda7804_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks were headed for a lower open Thursday amid negative economic news, a series of soft August sales reports from the retailers and a slip in Intel ahead of its midquarter update.

snip>

Futures weakened after the Labor Department announced a larger-than-expected downward revision in second-quarter productivity gains to 2.5 percent from 2.9 percent. Economists polled byhad thought non-farm productivity expanded 2.7 percent in the revision. See Economic Report.

Jobless claims in the latest week, meanwhile, rose 19,000 to 362,000 - its highest level in five months. Labor said "a little less than half" of the increase was a result of Hurricane Charley. Read more.

snip>

On the first Thursday of the month investors were deluged with August sales reports from the retailers.

more...

[UpInArms]

17. 9:37 EST markets are open

Dow 10,164.78 -3.68 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,848.40 -2.01 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,105.82 -0.09 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.142% +0.019

dollar dancing the "happy happy joy joy" dance :eyes:

Last trade 88.96 Change +0.09 (+0.10%)

[UpInArms]

18. 9:55 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,178.35 +9.89 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,849.57 -0.84 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,106.94 +1.03 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.140% +0.017

9:40AM: A mixed start for the major indices as buyers exhibit a sense of caution ahead of the day's events... After the close, Intel (INTC 21.36 -0.07) will be giving its mid-quarter update - of which, expectations are fairly low - and tomorrow, the August employment report will be released... Today's own economic data have not been that encouraging, with Q2 Productivity revised lower to 2.5% (consensus of 2.7%) and jobless claims for the week of August 28 rising 19K to 362K (consensus of 340K) - their highest level since April 10...

July Factory Orders will be released at 10 ET, and the consensus estimate for that is set at 1.1%...

[UpInArms]

19. Starbucks to Raise Prices

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20040902-000198-0441

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), the coffee giant that acclimated millions of Americans to paying unheard-of sums for a drink once largely made at home, is planning to raise its prices for the first time in four years, Thursday's Wall Street Journal reported.

Citing higher costs for milk and other commodities, as well as higher rent and health-insurance expenses, the Seattle company plans to charge more across its beverage menu board. "Prior to the end of the calendar year, Starbucks will be taking a modest price increase," Chairman Howard Schultz said in an interview. The company is mum on how much.

<snip>

Given current pricing pressures, some restaurant analysts are anticipating Starbucks will bump up prices 4% to 5% this time, adding a dime or so to the average $2 to $2.50 drink.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. 10:06 EST numbers and blather (YeeHaw!)

Dow 10,189.71 +21.25 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,853.21 +2.80 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,108.17 +2.26 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.150% +0.027

10:00AM: Stocks continue to hug the flat line as the morning's indecision sets in... Tech is the biggest weight on the proceedings as sellers have moved in following two days of solid gains... Semiconductor, networking, and disk drive have been hardest hit and the source of the Nasdaq's underperformance... Meanwhile, the blue chip averages have benefited from buying interest in energy, material, and most notably, retail...

August same store sales were released in mass this morning, and most came in in line to ahead of expectations - helping to calm concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending following July's disappointing results... Meanwhile, July Factory Orders were just released and came in at +1.3% (consensus of 1.1%)... Buying has picked up somewhat following... SOX -1.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 1174/1221, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 957/1137

[54anickel]

24. Huh? Retailers? Retail Sales Sluggish; Wal-Mart Cuts View

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6135596

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. retailers reported worse-than-expected August sales on Thursday and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) scaled back its financial forecasts as soaring fuel prices cut into back-to-school spending.

The poor retail sales figures -- which came one day after top U.S. automakers posted weaker sales and announced production cuts -- deepened worries about consumer spending and the overall health of the U.S. economy.

The back-to-school selling season usually peaks in August and is considered the second most important period behind the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas holiday sales season.

Analysts had expected a lackluster August performance because last year's sales were inflated by child tax credits, but results from Wal-Mart, Sears, Roebuck and Co. (S.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , Limited Brands Inc. (LTD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST.O: Quote, Profile, Research) were even worse than expected.

Retailers also blamed the poor sales on record-high oil prices, a late Labor Day weekend that pushed some demand into September, and hurricanes that ravaged Florida and other parts of the U.S. East Coast.

Kurt Barnard, head of Retail Forecasting Group, said despite the laundry list of reasons offered up for poor August sales, there were two primary causes: "It's the price of gasoline and a pervasive sense across the nation that there aren't any jobs available."

more...

[UpInArms]

26. Fed adds reserves through overnight system repos

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6135886

NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it was adding temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Earlier, the Fed added $15.0 billion in temporary reserves to the system through 14-day system repurchase agreements.

The fed funds rate last traded around 1.50 percent, the Fed's current target for the rate.

...a bit more...

gotta keep that liquidity flowing!

[UpInArms]

27. Greenspan favours labour-saving tech, immigration

http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage.php?hpFlag=Y&chklogin=N&autono=165882&leftnm=lmnu3&lselect=0&leftindx=3

US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan believes that America should allow the creation and adoption of labour-saving technologies (outsourcing?) and easier immigration to offset a presaged decline in the growth rate of US working-age population over the next two decades.

In his opening remarks made in a recent symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas city, Wyoming, Greenspan also said that the US capital markets should be more receptive towards immigrants.

The Fed chairman added that that outsourcing will help offset the rising pressure of retirement incomes and growing scarcity of experienced labour, while higher immigration would offset the decline in fertility seen in the country.

Statements like these will be more than welcome for the Indian information technology industry that’s facing outsourcing heat in the run-up to the US presidential election.

...more...

[ramapo]

29. Easier immigration?

How much easier can it get?

An outsourced (doesn't he mean offshored) worker doesn't pay taxes, support social security, or buy anything to support our economy. This is going to help us?

[punpirate]

38. "Labor-saving technologies" could also mean...

... investment in automation.

But, if investment loans (required to buy and install robotics) are tight and expensive, moving jobs offshore has more immediate effects on the bottom line, especially with places like India developing infrastructure to make the transition of jobs quicker and easier (and more profitable) for American companies.

Unfortunately, our friend Greenspam avoids considering the ways in which current tax policy encourages both a very short-term attitude to investment and offshoring, thus making it much more likely for a company to opt for quick fixes such as outsourcing, rather than long-term investment in capital equipment. (Admittedly, with excess capacity at high levels, no one wants to put money into more capacity, either.)

But then, Greenspin has always been more interested in policies promoting wealth creation, rather than policies which spread that wealth to the workers. Since 1973, it's been policy to turn the economy from manufacturing to financialization, and we're now seeing the inevitable results of that change. Combine that with recent tax changes which lock up more money in the very top tier of investors, and American workers are inevitably going to get screwed.

[Maeve]

28. Salutations, Marketeers!

Just a quick note that I am still around, just dealing with a few things on the personal front (thinking too much about family finances to deal with the national level and trying to get my career back on track as the new school year starts)

Keep countering the spin! :hi:

[54anickel]

32. Hey Maeve. Good to see you, it is Maeve day after all.

I need to get myself back on track as well. Started school last week and it's been tough applying myself. Got to addicted to DU during my long hiatus.

[54anickel]

30. The Twin Deficits: Myths and Truths (Mises)

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?control=1598

Open the business section of a newspaper today and you are likely to find some mention of (a) America’s wide trade gap; (b) the increasing Federal budget deficit; and often (c) the two of these, yoked together as ‘The Twin Deficit" problem.
Indeed, such is the current focus that listed in the NY Times non-fiction best sellers list for much of the past month or so has been Peter G. Petersen’s "Running On Empty: How The Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It." Mr. Petersen, once Commerce Secretary under President Nixon, is decidedly a man with first-hand knowledge of how political expediency can wreck the process of wealth creation.

As usual with such issues, there is a deal of truth in the figures marshaled by the commentators and there is, indeed, a good deal of substance to the anxieties to which the numbers are giving rise. However, there is also enough false logic on display to fill a major law practice and, consequently, there is no shortage of erroneous prescriptions dealing with how to address the matter.

It might be worthwhile to see if we can review the subject with seriousness.

more...

[54anickel]

31. Stocks Up, Shrug Off Sluggish Retail Sales

Still wonder if some of this isn't the result of the changes made in the indices the night before last. Certainly seemed to by timed with the RNC :shrug:

http://www.forbes.com/infoimaging/feeds/ap/2004/09/02/ap1528405.html

Stocks inched higher Thursday as investors shrugged off sluggish retail sales, a disappointing reading on worker productivity and a surge in oil prices.

snip>

Volume has been extremely thin this week, with the Republican National Convention taking place in New York and the Labor Day holiday still ahead. Analysts say it's difficult to pinpoint market trends when trading is light.

In economic news, worker productivity rose a disappointing 2.5 percent in the spring, the smallest gain since late 2002. The reading by the Labor Department, which measures the amount an employee produces for every hour on the job, missed economists' estimates for a rise of 2.8 percent, and was down sharply from the 3.7 percent pace posted in the first quarter.

snip>

The nation's largest retailers reported a third consecutive month of weak sales, as low-to-middle income shoppers became more frugal in response to rising energy and grocery bills and growing worries about the job market.

[KoKo]

34. Mike Hartman did say...he expects markets to hold up until Friday....

just to get the Repugs through the convention. :D Hurricane coming to Florida ..oil tankers can't deliver and wells in gulf being closed..much property loss and devastation...but hey the Repugs are in Town...can't rain on their big parade can we...Ugh.

[54anickel]

33. COMEX gold starts soft, awaits jobs, long weekend

http://www.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=MTFH46180_2004-09-02_14-14-04_N02357635_NEWSML&ric=MUL

NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - COMEX gold fell early Thursday as traders ignored a jump in weekly jobless claims and reined in long positions before Friday's employment report and an early market close for the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday.

The market was not expected to weaken too much as the specter of political extremism around the world kept gold in vogue as a safe haven and a rebound in oil prices revived interest in inflation hedges.

snip>

COMEX trade will wrap up around noon Friday and the exchange will not reopen until Tuesday.

Some investors bought gold as portfolio insurance before this week's Republican National Convention. It hit a four-month high at $416.80 two weeks ago.

snip>

"December gold has been managing to close above the $400 level, which has to be constructive somewhat, with all the activity going on in different parts of the world," he said, mentioning the U.S. presidential campaign, oil prices and "various uprisings and bomb scares."

more...

[54anickel]

35. 11:40 heading into the lunchhour and ugh, talk about lackluster

Dow 10,172.45 +3.99 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,853.12 +2.71 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,107.14 +1.23 (+0.11%)
10-yr Bond 4.15% +0.027
30-yr Bond 4.949% +0.015
NYSE Volume 378,516,000
Nasdaq Volume 416,342,000

11:00AM: Major indices continue to trade in positive territory with most sectors up for the day... Retail, telecom, airline, and basic material have performed well and secured the market's place about the unchanged mark... With the exception of retail, however, most groups have just eeked out small gains - not robust enough to inspire a broad-based rally... Sentiment remains muted with volume totals still low and worries about Intel/the August jobs report pressing... The price of crude oil has headed higher following yesterday's ascent, now up 1% to $44.40/bbl...

Yukos is back in the news as a Russian court ruling froze three of its units, possibly causing a halt in production...NYSE Adv/Dec 1656/1230, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1300/1289

10:30AM: Market maintains most of its gains following the better than expected July Factory Orders report... The reading rose 1.3% (consensus of 1.1%) for its strongest gain since March as shipments rose 0.7% in July... Inventories also increased 0.8% to leave the inventory/sales ratio at 1.23 for the month - auguring well for August inventory rebuilding... As such, the industrial shares have caught a bid in the last 30 minutes, along with the rest of the market...

Transportation, energy, and consumer discretionary are all sporting gains of 0.5% or more, and the tech group has also lifted off its lows of the day... Market internals reflect the positive tone of the session...DJTA +0.6, SOX -0.5, XOI +0.8, NYSE Adv/Dec 1537/1171, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1247/1192

[MARALE]

36. kick n/t

:dem:

[54anickel]

37. 12:58 and no real surprises over lunch

Climbing a wall of worries? Doubtful with that volume....

Dow 10,177.39 +8.93 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,854.25 +3.84 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,107.68 +1.77 (+0.16%)
10-yr Bond 4.177% +0.054
30-yr Bond 4.971% +0.037
NYSE Volume 509,075,000
Nasdaq Volume 550,653,000


12:30PM: Major indices slip a bit lower but continue to hang onto slim gains... Within the Dow, 16 out of the 30 components have posted losses for the day with Wal-Mart (WMT 52.29 -0.34), 3M (MMM 82.53 -0.33), and Caterpillar (CAT 72.47 -0.15) rounding out the list... Wal-Mart itself has been the largest laggard after reporting August comps of +0.5% (consensus of 1.1%)... Goldman Sachs has cut its Q3 (Sept) and FY05 (Jan) EPS estimates by $0.02 each to $0.52 and $2.38, respectively (consensus $0.54 and $2.40)...
The firm notes that September will not be easy since the world's largest retailer is up against a 6.0% increase last year...NYSE Adv/Dec 1775/1297, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1388/1433

12:00PM: The stock market has treaded in modestly higher territory today as a batch of encouraging August same store sales and a strong July Factory Orders reports have prompted buying... The latter rose 1.3% (consensus of 1.1%) for its best gain since March as the inventory/sales ration increased to 1.23 - suggesting August should show similar results...

August chain store sales also impressed the market - most retailers coming in ahead of the Briefing.com consensus estimate (see the Same Store Sales Calendar) - and helped dispel worries about a discretionary spending slowdown following the July report... All, however, has not been good this morning as two other economic reports (weekly initial claims and the revision to Q2 productivity) missed market expectations and crude oil has continued to climb higher... The commodity now sits at $45.10/bbl (up 2.5%) in an extension of yesterday's 4% surge... Talk that Russia's largest oil exporter, YUKOS, had three of its units frozen in a court ruling has renewed supply fears...

Worries that Intel (INTC 21.45 +0.02) - tonight with its mid-quarter update - and the August employment report - tomorrow before the open - will disappoint the market have led to the restraint seen among buyers and mixed industry leadership... Technology and financial - two influential groups - have trailed the broader market and counterbalanced gains seen in retail, transportation, and basic material...NYSE Adv/Dec 1725/1309, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1390/1404

[54anickel]

39. U.S. stocks erase gains as oil spikes to $45

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040902/195d00d7eeb0ad300f2c9d5935bda70d_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stocks erased early gains in thin midday trading Thursday as oil prices jumped and investors waited for Intel's midquarter update after the closing bell and Friday's U.S. employment report.

Also weighing on blue-chip shares was Wal-Mart, which issued a third-quarter sales and profit warning.

snip>

Market professionals say much trading has been muted as investors await the Intel and jobs news. Some investors are poised to adjust their portfolios ahead of getaway day for the long Labor Day holiday weekend, analysts said.

"I think it'll be a rangebound, back-and-forth market," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and strategist at S.W. Bach. "We're not heading off a cliff -- that's for sure."

Crude-oil futures topped $45 a barrel for the first time since Aug. 25 amid renewed concerns about oil exports from Russia's Yukos and Wednesday's reports of inventory declines. October crude was last up 96 cents at $44.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a high of $45.37. See Futures Movers.

All week long, trading volume has been low as many are getting in their vacation days of summer while many others intentionally avoided Wall Street as New York hosts the Republican National Convention. Click here for a complete coverage of the convention.

Heh-heh, sort of funny ain't it? When they raised the terror alert to orange and had all those warnings about specific targets in the financial district, the talking heads raved and praised all those traders for showing up to work. Even Snowjob made a comment. Now the RNC is in town and they're all scared off!!!

The Repugs are coming! The Repugs are coming! :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

40. And now for a plug - check out this table posted over in Econ if you

haven't already done so. It shows tax liability based on income under Shrub's vs Kerry's plan. The numbers were run by the good folks over at Deloitte & Touche.

Thought a plug for this post was appropriate in light of Shrub pushing his ownership society and tax cuts again.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x11061

[54anickel]

41. Voracious growth puts China in a power crunch

http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2004-09-01-china-energy_x.htm

WENZHOU, China — It's not even 5 p.m. on a workday and the corridor outside Li Chengwen's office is dark. The air is moist and warm.

Li may be the CEO of an established electronics manufacturer, but in China these days, electricity is far too precious to waste on unnecessary lighting or air conditioning. The booming economy has outstripped the country's ability to generate power, leaving companies like Li's Fato Group to fend for themselves with private generators and conservation schemes.

In the capital, Beijing, officials earlier this month issued their first-ever "yellow" alert warning of possible electricity shortages. Shanghai has resorted to switching off the neon lights that brighten the famous riverfront boulevard known as the Bund. And in 24 of China's 31 provinces, electricity shortages have forced periodic power rationing. The nationwide shortfall is estimated at a staggering 30 gigawatts — an amount equal to Turkey's entire electric grid.

Here in China's coastal capitalist heartland of Zhejiang province, the impact has been acute. Most factories can rely on the public electricity network no more than three days a week. Beyond that, they're on their own. "This is definitely a big problem for us," Li says. "Generating our own electricity increases our costs. ... We are feeling the pressure."

more...

[54anickel]

42. State Street will be marketing agent for gold ETF (Ugh)

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=22909255&brk=1

BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- State Street Global Markets, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly-owned subsidiary of State Street Corp., will be the marketing agent for a gold exchange-traded fund sponsored by the World Gold Council, according to an SEC filing.

According to previous filings, the ETF was to be named Equity Gold Trust, but the name has been changed to streetTRACKS Gold Trust. StreetTRACKS is the brand name of several ETFs managed by Boston-based State Street Global Advisors.

The expense ratio has been increased from the previous 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent, according to the filing.

Barclays Global Investors has also filed a gold ETF with the SEC to be called iShares COMEX Gold Trust. Both ETFs are designed to reflect the price of gold owned by the trust, less the expenses of the trust's operations.

more...

[KoKo]

47. I don't know "54" but why does this sound like the next "scam" to me.

They've run out of "index funds" to hype..because they are tanking and now they start a "gold index fund?"

Can't wait to see what some of our Bearish Gold Bugs think about this, though.

[airstrip1]

55. Serious gold bugs like to own the physical metal.

They regard nearly all these gold indexes as some sort of perversion perpetrated by the supporters of the fiat money economy.

[KoKo]

56. Thanks for a verification that my dark thoughts on this might have some

truth. But, I imagine those who want to catch "the next wave of new economy investing" will be piling in when they hear the hype. :eyes:

[54anickel]

60. Yeah, there are a few of the bugs that like the idea. Paul van-something

over at Kitco is one (I think). The true bugs, Mogambo for sure, or DUs own junker, won't like it though.

[54anickel]

43. 2:12 and here comes that 2:00 pump we've read about in the past

And yet another delay on the blather as they attempt to dream up some sort of explanation. :eyes:

Dow 10,202.53 +34.07 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,859.01 +8.60 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,110.42 +4.51 (+0.41%)
10-yr Bond 4.173% +0.050
30-yr Bond 4.968% +0.034
NYSE Volume 648,859,000
Nasdaq Volume 688,439,000

1:30PM: The market continues to trade just above the unchanged mark with a strong retail group supporting the broader market... Department store, apparel, home improvement, and drug store have all advanced significantly in a welcome move for this group that has been underwater most of the year... Every other sector has registered much smaller gains, with sectors like energy, material, industrial, and telecom all sporting gains of 0.2-0.5%... Tech remains the biggest loser of the session and the source behind the Nasdaq's negative A/D line...NYSE Adv/Dec 1807/1292, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1444/1449

[UpInArms]

44. 2:15 EST and moving straight up

Dow 10,209.83 +41.37 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,860.91 +10.50 (+0.57%)
S&P 500 1,111.16 +5.25 (+0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.172% +0.049

the calvary has come to save the day! must have that market looking good for W tonight!

I mean, it only makes sense 'cause all the reports this week have just been stellar :crazy:

[UpInArms]

45. adding 2:00 blather

2:00 ET The Dow and S&P 500 have ticked slightly higher over the last hour but remain confined within the range that has dominated in the wake of the push to the morning highs. Continuing to underpin these indices are the retail, consumer discretionary, basic materials and energy sectors. The Nasdaq Comp retains its firmer posture amid modest strength in tech (disk drive, software, Internet) and biotech but semi (SOX -0.5%) remains a laggard ahead of the mid-quarter update from Intel after the close. Volume has slowed significantly from yesterday's pace with the Nasdaq currently running just slightly ahead of Monday which marked the lowest volume of the year. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1837/1292. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1467/1451.

[KoKo]

46. The "Chimp" speaks tonight about "Ownership." Gotta make him look

good when he talks about the healthy economy and putting you in charge of investing your own money for retirement when he ends SS. Kudlow/Cramer have to have something good to say as they pump and blather on CNBC as the "warm up" and we gotta cover up what's probably going to happen in Florida this weekend.

[UpInArms]

48. meanwhile... in the real world

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6137850

Retail Sales, Productivity Sluggish in August

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A string of government reports on Thursday offered a mixed picture of the U.S. economy while unexpectedly poor August sales at major U.S. retailers fanned fears about consumer spending.

U.S. worker productivity grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Labor Department said, down from the originally estimated 2.9 percent pace and the slowest clip since the fourth quarter of 2002.

The tally of new claims for jobless benefits rose in part on the effects of Hurricane Charley for a second week and factory orders climbed more than expected in July.

However, financial markets showed scant reaction to Thursday's data with traders fixated on Friday's employment report for August.

Economists said some downward revision in productivity growth was expected after the government cut its estimate for the pace of economic growth in the period. Nor was it necessarily a bad sign for the economy.

<snip>

"I would be a bit more worried if we got a disappointing job number tomorrow," he added.

The news was less ambiguous on the retail front as major retailers posted sales that failed to beat already lowered expectations.

Analysts had expected a lackluster performance since last year's sales were inflated by child tax credits, but results from Wal-Mart, Sears, Roebuck and Co., Limited Brands Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. were even worse than expected.

In the wake of Wednesday's reports on surprisingly weak auto sales, the retail data may heighten worries consumers are pulling back amid high energy prices and sluggish job growth.

"People are not spending money," said Kurt Barnard, president of Retail Forecasting Group. "They are intimidated by the (economic) outlook."

...more...

[54anickel]

49. 3:08 and WHOA BABYCAKES!!!

Dow 10,255.85 +87.39 (+0.86%)
Nasdaq 1,869.25 +18.84 (+1.02%)
S&P 500 1,115.55 +9.64 (+0.87%)
10-yr Bond 4.190% +0.067
30-yr Bond 4.981% +0.047
NYSE Volume 825,741,000
Nasdaq Volume 883,952,000

3:00PM: The stock market has retained its favorable afternoon posture with minor new highs set again in recent action. Crude oil declines have been cited as the trigger for the push but short term buyers have also surfaced as the S&P 500 broke out above its recent trading range as well as its 200 day average. Thinner trading conditions may have played a role too with volume continuing to run below the pace of the last few days. NYSE Adv/Dec 2094/1121, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1762/1188

2:30PM: The market has pushed modestly higher across the board over the last half hour with new session highs achieved. The S&P 500 has been the best performer during this latest run with it reaching its highest level since July 21. While the averages have not been closely following crude oil of late, a sizeable intraday drop in the front month contract has coincided with the stock market upticks. Currently the S&P 500 is hovering near its 200 day simple mov avg at 1112.23. Semi has returned to positive territory with little other than gold, oil service and health provider in the red. Volume remains slow with internals modestly bullish. SOX +0.2%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1976/1209, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1721/1220

[UpInArms]

50. goosing it for all they've got!

3:11 EST

Dow 10,276.86 +108.40 (+1.07%)
Nasdaq 1,874.40 +23.99 (+1.30%)
S&P 500 1,117.28 +11.37 (+1.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.194% +0.071

[nolabels]

51. They always do, more predictable than the cycles of the moon

"SeaLion"
(snip)
There's a golden handshake hanging round your neck,
as you light your cigarette on the burning deck.
And you balance your world on the tip of your nose ---
like a SeaLion with a ball, at the carnival.
You wear a shiny skin and a funny hat ---
the Almighty Animal Trainer lets it go at that.
You bark ever-so-slightly at the Trainer's gun,
with you whiskers melting in the noon-day sun.
You flip and you flop under the Big White Top
where the long-legged ring-mistress starts and stops.
But you know, after all, the act is wearing thin ---
as the crowd grows uneasy and the boos begin.
But you balance your world on the tip of your nose ---
you're a SeaLion with a ball at the carnival.
Just a trace of pride upon our fixed grins ---
for there is no business like the show we're in.
There is no reason, no rhyme, no right
to leave the circus `til we've said good-night.
(snip)

http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/jethrotull/sealion.html

[Snellius]

52. These "political bounces" always seem manipulated

Maybe not. But the coincidence always seems more than accidental and the next day everyone seems to sell out.

[loudsue]

53. LOL! Yep....prolly a good time to buy Puts

There will be hell to pay once bush is through climbing down off his little "stage" at the convention.

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

57. Yeah, I won't be home tonight to catch the lil' boob on the boob-tube

tonight (wouldn't be able to stomach it anyway). Hope someone here catches what he has to say. It will be interesting to see if he mentions the stock market being up again. I remember him mentioning the market at least once before as evidence of a recovery. Dimwit!

[54anickel]

54. U.S. stocks surge to session highs as crude retreats

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040902/7139bd0f438ffe98326365ffb8632c2d_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - A pullback in crude oil prices lifted the major indexes to session highs Thursday afternoon as investors nibbled on stocks even as they awaited Intel's midquarter update after the closing bell and Friday's U.S. employment report.

snip>

"It's a nice little bounce here -- but why?" said Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates who said it's difficult to put a lot of weight on these daily moves because volumes have been so light.

"Nevertheless, it counts for something -- I'm taking this as a positive," he said.

Market professionals say much trading has been muted as investors await the Intel and jobs news. Some investors, meanwhile, may be adjusting their portfolios ahead of getaway day for the long Labor Day holiday weekend, analysts said.

Gee, in the past didn't they usually tend to pull some chips in before a holiday? :eyes:

[KoKo]

58. "Crude Retreats" but...but....what about this this latest from AP?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040902/oil_prices_8.html


Associated Press
Oil Prices Rise on Russia Supply Worries
Thursday September 2, 4:11 pm ET
By Brad Foss, AP Business Writer

Oil Prices Rise Slightly on Russia Supply Concerns in Volatile Day of Trade


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040902/oil_prices_8.htmlWASHINGTON (AP) -- Oil prices briefly bolted above $45 a barrel Thursday, then retreated toward $44, in a volatile day of trade after Russian oil giant Yukos said its output could suffer because of a court ruling that froze some of its assets.

The company's comments heightened supply fears that had been raised a day earlier after government and industry data showed a sharp decline in U.S. oil inventories.

After prices jumped as high as $45.37, traders began locking-in profits as analysts voiced skepticism toward the dire picture painted by Yukos Oil Co., which owes the Russian government $3.4 billion in back taxes for 2000.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040902/oil_prices_8.html

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

59. Question from a noob: Why would a stock (AMD) drop like a rock after

news that their flash memory is top for the 1st half of 2004 and that they are beating Intel in the release of a dual core processor?

The news hit at 4:15 and the stock dropped from 11.65 to 11.25 in a heartbeat.

What am I missing here?

[54anickel]

61. Japanese Yen Revaluation

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/norcini082704.html

Of the many items that currency traders concern themselves with in attempting to ascertain the overall trend and/or value of a particular currency, the strategy of that nation's Central Bank is perhaps the most dominant. Does the Central Bank intend to lower or raise rates? Do their official press releases indicate a bias towards loosening or tightening? Are they making noises about intervention? Have their threats habitually been backed up with actual intervention? Are they raising the issue of inflation or deflation? Are they upbeat on the native economy or pessimistic? The answers to these questions, among others, go a long way into formulating how currency traders approach a particular currency when originating a trading position.

This is especially true regarding the Japanese Yen for the primary reason that the Bank of Japan has a formidable arsenal at its disposal when it comes to official intervention in the Forex markets particularly if they intend to weaken the Yen at the expense of the Dollar. Without getting into the details of the actual mechanism as to how this is done, suffice it to say that they are feared and respected among Forex traders for good reason. One thing currency traders learned late last year and earlier this year is that the BOJ is not the least bit shy when it comes to announcing their intentions nor are they reluctant to pull the trigger and let the specs know exactly where they have drawn the line in the sand saying, "thus far shall you go and no further". They managed to successfully institute a type of "quasi-peg" with the yen preventing it from strengthening much beyond the 105 level. Time and time again the BOJ would come out of its chamber like some sort of angry behemoth and smash any attempts by speculators to drive the yen above that level. All bids were simply overwhelmed with huge offers and down she would go. Apparently, they finally grew tired of toying with the hapless speculators and decided to thrash them soundly once and for all which they did in February of this year (I should know as I was on the receiving end of that and am still carrying the scars). They literally inundated the Forex arena with offer after offer until they set in place a massive panic among yen traders who bailed out en masse of their yen long positions precipitating an exodus of the giant hedge funds who had amassed a sizeable long position against the sickly dollar. The Yen has yet to recover from that beating even after six months.

The question of course if is why did the BOJ seem so determined to cap the yen rally? The answer is because it suited their purpose. To their credit, unlike the denizens lurking in secret at the Federal Reserve who love to utter incoherent and cryptic messages which apparently none but the initiated can unravel, the BOJ officials, alongside of the Ministry of Finance officials, stated quite clearly that they desired a weak yen for the benefit of their export markets. Japanese domestic demand was and is still comparatively weak and thus the export segment of their economy has become their main priority. It is essential that they take the necessary steps to see that any hindrances to that particular segment are summarily dealt with and removed. A weak yen facilitates the sale of Japanese manufactured goods abroad and thus a weak yen it is! Simply put, that is where we are at today. The BOJ seems quite content with the current level of the yen vis-à-vis the dollar and has been very quiet of late. Gone are the reporters waiting outside the offices of the various finance authorities waiting with bated breath for the next pronouncement as to official intentions. It is reminiscent of the quiet after a storm.

Notice the following chart compiled from data collected on the Bank of Japan's web site. It will illustrate my point in regards to how a weak currency facilitates export demand by keeping exports competitively priced on the international market. As you can see, since 1998, the Japanese have managed to keep the price of their exported goods relatively cheap. Year on year percentage changes have been negative with very few exceptions. In other words, they have managed to keep the price of goods made there falling at a steady pace. It is obvious that this factor has greatly contributed to Japan's enormous trade surplus.

more...

[54anickel]

62. Capture those final number (a bit late)

Dow 10,290.28 +121.82 (+1.20%)
Nasdaq 1,873.43 +23.02 (+1.24%)
S&P 500 1,118.31 +12.40 (+1.12%)
10-yr Bond 4.194% +0.071
30-yr Bond 4.985% +0.051
NYSE Volume 1,113,079,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,215,575,000

Close Dow +121.82 at 10290.28, S&P +12.40 at 1118.31, Nasdaq +23.02 at 1873.43: The market averages began the session on a favorable but trade once again was restrained. Helping to underpin in the early going were some positive developments in the retail sector. While the news was not overwhelming bullish in terms of the number that topped the consensus vs those that did not (see Briefing.com Same-Store-Sales calendar), there were favorable results from American Eagle (AEOS +6.7%), Gap (GAP +5.6%) along with Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF +9.7%) and upside guidance that helped to dispel worries about a discretionary spending slowdown following the July report. Also providing a boost was the stronger than expected Factory Order report for July which came in at 1.3% vs the consensus of 1.1% with the previous month revised higher to 1.2% vs 0.7%. Consolidative action near the highs dominated into the afternoon as caution in front of the Intel (INTC +0.9%), further intraday gains in oil and concern about the weekend hurricane limited follow through. Buyers returned in fairly aggressive fashion over the last two hours as crude oil reversed to the downside with the average breaking above technical levels. Rumors of better than expected jobs data, possibly fueled by positive comments from Council of Economic Advisors, was also cited for the afternoon strength. Volume did pick up during the run but it was still below the pace of the last few days. The Treasury market was under pressure throughout with position squaring in front of the employment report and the bearish oil reversal pressuring. DOT +1.6%, Nasdaq 100 +1.4%, Russell 2000 +1.3% , SOX +1.5%, S&P Midcap 400 +0.9%, XOI +0.9%, NYSE Adv/Dec 2365/932, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2019/1004