STOCK MARKET WATCH, TUESDAY AUGUST 26.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday August 26, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 515
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 283
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 258 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 316 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 158
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 642
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 25, 2003

Dow 9,317.64 -31.23 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,764.31 -1.01 (-0.06%)
S&P 500..... 993.71 +0.65 (+0.07%)
10-Year Bond 4.53% +0.07 (+1.53%)
Gold future...... 361.90 -0.50 (-0.14%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Hat-Trick in the Red

Stocks, U.S. Treasury debt and the dollar were all sold today, lowering the value of U.S. paper assets across the board. The sell-off in stocks from Friday continued through the opening hours, but by late morning the broad stock market indices reached their lows and wandered higher for the balance of the afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 31 points to close at 9,317, the NASDAQ almost made it back to breakeven by dropping only 1 point to close at 1,764, and the S&P 500 closed flat at 993. By looking at the volume, most traders were either singing the Monday Blues, or they’re still on vacation. Trading on the New York Stock Exchange didn’t even make it to a billion shares today. The NYSE traded 858 million shares while the NASDAQ was also light at 1.01 billion. This will probably be a slow week with families winding up their summer vacations, gearing-up for back-to-school and getting ready for the long Labor Day Weekend.

Stocks are priced for perfection in anticipation of the improving economy and second half recovery. While the stage is set for improving economic numbers, most of the improvement is already factored into stock values. For stocks to go appreciably higher, earnings will have to go higher. There’s a good chance stocks could pull back 5-10% and then hold in a trading range until we can get a better feel for third quarter earning reports. I’m looking for stocks to grind lower over the next two weeks then we will start to get indications in mid-September from companies that don’t expect to make their numbers.

Good for Real Estate, Bad for Bonds

The National Association of Realtors announced existing home sales in July rose to a record level of 6.12 million annualized, up 5% from June. Even bigger than the number of homes sold, the median sales price rose by 12.1% which was the biggest single month increase in almost 23 years. (This is probably the final blow-off top for home prices.) Housing has clearly been the most robust sector of the economy for a couple of years now. The lowest interest rates in a half-century have increased the number of houses changing ownership and the selling price of all the homes. Remember that the sale is recognized at the close of escrow, which means there is at least a thirty-day lag time from when the deal is done to the time it is officially booked. The low interest rates in June translated to the biggest ever sales that were realized in July. The numbers should come down noticeably in August since mortgage rates went from the low in June at 5.2% to over 6% in July. Time will tell.

more...

[ozymandius]

2. Avoiding strike three

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Investors will eye the latest economic numbers, as well as some cautious comments from Intel's CEO, and try to regroup Tuesday after two days of losses on Wall Street.

Stocks looked set for a weak start, with S&P and Nasdaq futures pointing lower in before-hours trading.
<..cut..>

Tuesday will bring reports on consumer confidence, orders for long-lasting durable goods and new home sales.

In addition, Intel CEO Craig Barrett cautioned Tuesday that its third-quarter sales rebound that excited investors might be temporary and was not a sure sign that the sector had emerged from its three-year slump.

story

[JNelson6563]

3. Good Morning Ozy

Boy you've got it ALL covered this morning, eh? Well good to see somebody is on the ball (cause today it just ain't me haha).

I took a peek at futures, looks grim. I see durable goods for July are up 1% and that doesn't seem to be doing much to change the futures yet.

Looks like Treasuries are already getting hit too.

What kind of wild ride are we in for today??

Julie

[ozymandius]

7. Good morning Julie! Here's what I think will happen.

It appears that tech will once again be driving the NASDAQ. This will not bode well for stock prices. The NASDAQ will be the dead weight on today's stocks overall. I will not be surprised if the Intel-driven tech downturn bleeds onto the Dow and the S&P.

[Maeve]

4. An interesting Tuesday ahead of us

Let's see how the old Consumer Confidence numbers rack up at 10--forecasters expect 79.6 to 80.5, up from 76.6. New home sales expected to stay steady or drop a bit (I think they could also rise, based on the existing home report yesterday) and those reports could be wild cards with the market today.

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[JNelson6563]

5. tell me if I am wrong here Maeve

It seems to me that this big burst in housing is because everyone who was sitting on the fence sees the writing on the wall. Interest rates are going up better act now. So they all act now giving this big boost to housing. I've seen enough charts to know this sort of burst often precedes a sharp decline, ok.

So with everyone rushing to lock in now cause the times they are a changin' (for the worse) this tells me that consumer confidence would be down, not up.

Of course after nearly three years of black is white, up is down and war is peace, I may be a bit disoriented. ;-)

Julie--looking to use every cliche' known to man today haha

On edit: kant spel :-)

[Maeve]

6. The only thing "wrong" in what you said is

These are July's figures, so you might want to change to past tense--folks saw the rates rise and bought before it was too late.

To add to the cliches, I think the horse had left the barn and the well is running dry... :crazy:

[Maeve]

8. 9:35, off and running (down)

Dow 9,294.42 -23.22 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,757.30 -7.01 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 991.12 -2.59 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.585% +0.058

[JNelson6563]

9. didn't like the numbers?

10:04 and after a quick jump we are here:

Dow 9,295.26 -22.38 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,752.70 -11.61 (-0.66%)
S&P 500 990.63 -3.08 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.585% +0.058


Looks like the Treasuries don't like the thought of ever-increasing deficit numbers.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

10. falling fast

3 minutes later:

Dow 9,262.76 -54.88 (-0.59%)
Nasdaq 1,747.65 -16.66 (-0.94%)
S&P 500 986.89 -6.82 (-0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.581% +0.054


Ouch.

Julie

[Maeve]

11. Hmmm...all the Confidence gains were in "future expectations"

"The Conference Board's "expectations" index, which measures how consumers feel about the future, rose to 94.4 from a revised 86.3 in July. The "present situation" index dropped to 61.6 from a revised 63.

"The welcome bounce back in confidence this month was entirely due to consumers' increasing optimism about the future," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, which surveys 5,000 homes monthly.

In the survey, the percentage of people saying jobs were "hard to get" rose to 34.1 from 32.7 in July. Expectations for future job growth rose, however, with 18 percent expecting future improvement in the job market, compared with 16.6 percent in July.

U.S. stock prices fell after the report. Treasury bond prices also fell."

http://money.cnn.com/2003/08/26/news/economy/consumer/index.htm

No confidence in the consumer's judgment? :shrug:

[Maeve]

12. New home sales slip

Sales drop 2.9% in July to 1.16M rate, above expectations of 1.15M; Southern U.S. leads.
August 26, 2003: 10:11 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new homes dipped 2.9 percent in July but still were ahead of expectations because June's record high sales pace was even greater than believed, a government report showed Tuesday.

The Commerce Department said sales of new single-family homes slipped to a seasonally adjusted 1.165 million annual rate -- the second highest pace on record -- from an upwardly revised 1.200 million rate in June. Analysts polled by Reuters had on average forecast a 1.150 million rate.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/08/26/news/economy/home_sales.reut/index.htm

[Maeve]

13. 10:22 downdate

Dow 9,258.00 -59.64 (-0.64%)
Nasdaq 1,741.13 -23.18 (-1.31%)
S&P 500 985.77 -7.94 (-0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 4.580% +0.053

[lanlady]

14. I just wanted to say...

...that I'm truly in awe of all of you--Maeve, Ozy, Julie et al. who do the Stock Market Watch. I read it faithfully throughout the day, although I rarely have anything to contribute (my one economic "insight" being: whatever Larry Kudlow says will happen, expect the exact opposite to occur.). You're the ones who should be on TV giving viewers the straight dope! Thanks for everything you do.

[ozymandius]

23. Hello - I'm back for awhile. AND Thank you very much lanlady.

It is good to know that this thread is appreciated. Saying so makes the effort much more worthwhile.

[JNelson6563]

15. thanks lanlady plus update

Lanlady, thanks for your kind words, sometimes I wonder if anyone reads this thread anymore.....sometimes I think of it as Coffee Club for a very few marketeers.......glad to know someone's reading.

With that said, looks like we're screwed at 10:36-

Dow 9,243.61 -74.03 (-0.79%)
Nasdaq 1,739.35 -24.96 (-1.41%)
S&P 500 984.67 -9.04 (-0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.568% +0.041


I'm off to do my bit as a volunteer at the Jr. High to get everyone registered. See you all in a couple of hours! :hi: I hope we still have an economy when I get back...haha

Julie

[jeffreyi]

17. I do I do!

Check it first thing. This thread is my favorite on DU....I'm 'way too ignorant to post here, but get a lot out of reading it. Thanks, y'all!

[shrike]

18. Yeah, I love this thread

Check it out every day. You all are so entertaining ... as well as knowledgeable.

[Spazito]

16. I, too, read this thread every day!

I applaud those who keep this up-to-date. It is much appreciated!

I also LOVE the cartoons that are posted here everyday, that way I can at least start the investment day with a smile even if it doesn't end that way so, THANKS ALL who contribute!

[5thGenDemocrat]

20. Yup. Me too.

I don't have a dime in the stock market but it's the best read here through the day. Keep up the good work!
John
A bear, BTW. Always have been. I come from a long line of folks who stuff their money in their mattress, so to speak.

[Coventina]

19. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello! :hi:
No changing lines today either!

Today's reading is MEDITATION. Ching says, "Because of the complexities in worldly matters, it is of great importance to achieve inner peace. This will allow you to act in harmony with the times, rather than reacting with impulsiveness."


Ok, everyone. All together now ---- ooohhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......

Ahhhh. I feel better already, although I predict a down day for the markets.....

[ozymandius]

25. Quiet complexities

It seems as though the I Ching is telling us to keep calm while the maelstrom of frantic selling assaults us.

[mrsteve]

21. 12:15 numbers

Whadday mean, no one reads this thread? Some of us gotta hide from their boss while we read and post, but we do read (and post when possible)! ;-)

Dow 9,246.14 -71.50 (-0.77%)
Nasdaq 1,742.56 -21.75 (-1.23%)
S&P 500 985.83 -7.88 (-0.79%)
10-Yr Bond 4.531% +0.004

Ouch...a grouchy bear day in the markets.

[On the Road]

22. Just Added More Bear Funds to My Rollover IRA

I have about $50,000 in an Ameritrade account. Over the last two weeks, I've been putting money into bear funds that should increase if the market goes down. So far:

$10,000 in BEARX
$10,000 in URPSX (twice the volatility of the S&P 500)
$10,000 in URPIX (twice the volatility of the NASDAQ 100)

Just added another $10,000 in URPSX a few minutes ago. It's a gamble, but the odds are very good the market will drop between now and Thanksgiving. Will probably sell just before Halloween. Missed the whole rally this year. Maybe this will make up for it.

[ozymandius]

24. 1:05 and the money keeps sliding of the table.

That NASDAQ is a real drag.

DJIA 9,244.87 -72.77 (-0.78%)
NASDAQ 1,742.11 -22.20 (-1.26%)
S&P 500 985.70 -8.01 (-0.81%)

[JNelson6563]

26. checkin' in

Wow! Great response from all those readers!! Thanks all who read it and to those who contribute. Ribofunk--I hope your plan goes well, it sounds as good as any I've heard these days.

Numbers are right around what Ozy just posted. Not as horrid as I thought they'd be lookin' right now but the Nasdaq, zowie! Somebody better get in here with some gauze and start applying pressure.

Boy, just wait till the really crappy numbers start coming and folks return from vacation and sending the kiddies off to school.

I think many with join 5thGenDem and kin in some serious mattress stuffing. :-)

In and out the rest of the day--will check back in a bit! Hope all are having a good day in spite of the markets.

Julie

[Maeve]

27. Also checking in

Having to restock the cupboard--the kids aren't the greatest shoppers...And I also appreciate the cheers from our "readers". We all need the occassional "atta-boy" to make it worth the doing!

The word that comes to mind looking at today's market charts is "flatline".

Dow 9,239.68 -77.96 (-0.84%)
Nasdaq 1,742.09 -22.22 (-1.26%)
S&P 500 985.33 -8.38 (-0.84%)
10-Yr Bond 4.502% -0.025

[ozymandius]

28. Someone took notice of the abyss.

1:47 - It looks like nothing but black coffee for the captain for the rest of the day.

DJIA 9,258.20 -59.44 (-0.64%)
NASDAQ 1,745.61 -18.70 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 987.64 -6.07 (-0.61%)

[mrsteve]

29. 2:10 - aiming for a little rise

Dow 9,263.26 -54.38 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,748.27 -16.04 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 988.38 -5.33 (-0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 4.515% -0.012

Yahoo analysis:

"2:05PM: A sign of life as the indices pop up a bit...but noting major...another event worth noting is the Novellus (NVLS) mid-quarter update at 1:30 ET on Thursday...the market is always sensitive to comments from semiconductor firms about the outlook for demand...NYSE Adv/Dec 1091/2071, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1053/1998"

[ozymandius]

30. My - my. You could've knocked me over with a sledgehammer.

3:14 - all black
DJIA 9,342.14 24.50 (0.26%)
NASDAQ 1,766.48 2.17 (0.12%)
S&P 500 996.51 2.80 (0.28%)

[mrsteve]

31. Wow - what happened?

Perhaps we should troll the 2:30 and 3:00 Yahoo blurbs for clues:

"3:00PM: The "big rally" continues, with the indices pushing back towards unchanged...traders are willing to ascribe the move to any number of reasons, including rumors not really worth mentioning...but Greenspan is definitely still alive...the week before Labor Day the S&P has lost an average of 4.3% the past six years, but the market also has a habit of rallying after Labor Day...not that these trends are necessarily playing out this year, but the pattern has been known in the markets for years...bonds have rallied and the 10-year is now +10/32 with the yield back under 4.50%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1299/1905, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1252/1841

2:35PM: Market bounces up...some talk of short covering ahead of the long weekend, even though it is only Tuesday...in light volume, any action and any talk might get exaggerated...there were also rumors about Greenspan's health this morning, which we didn't publish because they seemed so tenuous, and there has been no followthrough on that...30 points in the Dow seems like an awfully big move on a day like today... . NYSE Adv/Dec 1134/2066, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1103/966"

[JNelson6563]

32. I nearly put my eye out when

I looked at the Dow chart and saw that spike!

I say we dust for prints.....PPT prints. After all, considering one of the most mentioned market items of late is the low volume, well, does it get any easier? I'm talking a little song, a little dance, a little manipulation in the pants (as it were).

Ah well, if that's the case they're gettin' off a lot cheaper than those heavier volume days they sometimes have to lug up that hill.

3:40 and it looks like nobody has to sit in their own poop and cry any more today.......


Dow 9,338.00 +20.36 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,765.26 +0.95 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 995.98 +2.27 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.486% -0.041


Julie

[Maeve]

33. Add the 3:35 blather

3:35PM: The market bounce has been largely ascribed to short-covering to square positions ahead of the weekend...one trader pointed out that we had just heard the explanation for recent declines as selling to square positions heading into September...the day's action rates as a solid intra-day bounce, but nothing that should be seen as a clear reflection of the underlying tone...volume is simply too light, and ultimately, the indices are ending up near unchanged, with the Dow now up about as much as it was down yesterday...(emphasis added by Maeve)
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[ozymandius]

34. Can you imagine the conversation?

EXECUTIVE: "Mr. Greenspan, our stock price has just hit a miserable low. Do you think that you could secure our credit line with one of those big banks so that we could buy back our stock that our board execs just dumped, thus inflating the trading price."

GREENSPAN: "Why sure. I'll just make a couple of calls to those big banks and we'll have you outta this mess before the closing bell."

EXEC: "Thanks."

GREENSPAN: "No problem."

3:50
DJIA 9,343.54 25.90 (0.28%)
NASDAQ 1,768.93 4.62 (0.26%)
S&P 500 996.58 2.87 (0.29%)

[JNelson6563]

35. It's a miracle.

And you know it isn't Snow's work. Idiot that he is.

Julie

[Maeve]

36. Not a miracle--nothing supernatural about it

More like "stage magic", if you get my drift...

Dow 9,340.17 +22.53 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,770.64 +6.33 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 996.72 +3.01 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.486% -0.041

[JNelson6563]

37. yes indeed

one of those more common miracles. The cheaper kind. ;-) No Divine Intervention needed.....good thing. If there is a Divine to intercede, I suspect it/he/she wouldn't be in a favorable way to the earthly powers that be......not this bunch anyhow.

I'll be tuning in tomorrow like the rest of you to pick out the facts as the spin goes by. See ya then! :hi:

Julie

[ozymandius]

38. final numbers

DJIA 9,340.45 22.81 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 1,770.64 6.33 (0.36%)
S&P 500 996.73 3.02 (0.30%)
10yr Note 4.49% -0.04 (-0.91%)
Gold future 365.40 -1.40 (-0.39%)