CNN: Latest presidential polls vary widely

[UpInArms]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/17/presidential.polls/

(CNN) -- Two new national polls are giving widely divergent views as to whether President Bush's post-convention bounce has solidified or evaporated.

A Gallup Poll released Friday showed the president widening his lead over Kerry among likely voters to 13 percentage points, with 55 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry.

<snip>

However, a poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, released Thursday, showed the race between Bush and Kerry now a dead heat.

<snip>

The Pew Center conducted two waves of polling over a seven-day period between September 8 and Tuesday.

In the first wave, Bush had a double-digit lead, but by the final wave of polling, the race had become a dead heat, indicating that the president's momentum had eroded.

...more...

[dave123williams]

1. Well, isn't that curious.

My goodness, you might get the idea that polling is total bullshit from this story...

[krkaufman]

9. Funny. Thanks. n/t

[dave123williams]

14. No prob...

This reminds me of when Hillary ran for the Senate in NY. The Marist Institute had polls that showed her in a 50/50 tie with Rick Lazio the day before the election.

She won by 17 points, the worst drubbing in NY statewide elections, ever.

[JuniorPlankton]

2. So, they actually admit the Gallup may not be

the ultimate truth?

That's a step in the right direction.

[rocktivity]

3. And in a related story

Dolly Parton sleeps on her back.

:headbang:
rocknation

[still_one]

4. Maybe they have been reading some of the letters

sent by very dedicated DU people

[John_H]

13. nah...that;s not it. You'll have to watch the shows to see them

prop the Gallop poll and bash the others.

[arwalden]

5. See? This Is Why I Distrust Polls...

If such "scientific" polls are so far removed from each other in their results... it makes me wonder how far removed from REALITY any of them are at any given moment.

Who's got the proper methods?
Who's asking the 'right' questions?
What ARE the "right questions"?
What is the wording of the questions?
Who's doing the analysis?
Who's being asked?
How are the participants screened?


-- Allen

[barb162]

11. if a phd in math with an emphasis in statistics

determines the proper sample size, how areas of the country should be polled, how the parameters are set, etc., you can get excellent results. But you can never tell from these polls what the actual "science" is and if they are stringently applying the mathematical science. All you see on these polls is a typical notation at the bottom of +/- insert number variation or error.

[daleo]

6. Statistical theory says you will get the odd "rogue poll"

But Gallup seems to have become a "rogue poller".

[Beetwasher]

7. Gallup Has A HISTORY Of Putting Out Polls

that oddly go against the trend and do so in favor of Bush at critical times.

They also polled Iraqis last October and came out w/ bizarre results in which a sizeable majority trusted the US and supported the invasion.

Gallup is shameful, disgusting propoganda. Nothing more.

They will be used as cover for another stolen election through rigged voting machines.

[PlanetBev]

8. Gallup pulled this shit on Truman and Gore

They've been honing their skills at this bogus shit for years.

[SoCalDem]

10. They vary widely, because polls are SHIT

Think of how many people YOU know who have given up landline phones, and use their UNLISTED cell phone as their ONLY phone..

Think of how many people have their answering machine answer ALL incoming calls..

Think of how many people work weird shifts and are not even home when pollsters call..

Think of how many people have recently registered, and do not even show up on tried and true phone lists..

Polls are easily "rigged" by zipcodes..(ask an old time insurance/real estate agent about red-lining)

Think about how poll questions are worded(they are usually worded to achieve the result the poll taker wants)

....

The real question should be...


Why so many polls??

I say it's to keep the public in line with the premise that it's a 50-50 nation...close race...no difference...etc etc..

Thinking like that makes it soooooo much easier to accept when a few votes here and there are "fixed" so that * emerges victorious..

Will people take to the streets if * wins by a few votes...when the race was "oh-so-close" for months....in most polls..???

[quaoar]

12. They also admit the problem with cell phones

Miles O'Brien just interviewed Walter Shapiro of USA Today.

Shapiro said that the Gallup Poll showing Bush ahead by 13 was probably an outlier. O'Brien then pointed out that Shapiro's paper was "trumpeting" that poll in its paper today.

And Shapiro just kind of shrugged and then talked about all the problems with polls, including not calling cell-phone users.

[DeepModem Mom]

15. Is CNN admitting the variance on-air, or touting Gallup? nt