Ivan still 160/914 - New Orleans may be in danger

[Zynx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/140010.shtml?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/132133W5.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904P+GIF/132133P.gif

>>IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM. AT 715 PM EDT...SANDINO METEOROLOGICAL
STATION IN PINAR DEL RIO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 124 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 162 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.<<

[RedEarth]

1. Here is a photo of Ivan....truly amazing.....

[DS1]

6. Nice of those countries to pencil in those little black lines for us

:wtf:

[lostnfound]

11. Modern technology can be a beautiful thing...

I love those satellite images cleaned up by computers.

Like this one..just think what it would have meant to Leonardo daVinci or Isaac Newton or Ptolemy..would they ever have learned that the Earth wasn't flat?:

[cprise]

2. It is like an F3 tornado. 100 miles wide.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Not a good analogy. Tornados (serious ones) generally spin 200 to 250 MPH

the scale and duration of the winds are inverse of each other.
Hurricanes are large but not as fast. Tornadoes quite the opposite.
All thing considered, I'd rather take my chances with the F3 than this monster.

[cprise]

15. F3 tornado begins at 158 MPH

So in some sense, THIS hurricane is like a humungous F3 tornado.

[Stuckinthebush]

3. New Orleans???

That thing is headed straing for Pensacola!

[Zynx]

5. Hurricane winds are over 200 miles in diameter

And if it doesn't make that projected turn, New Orleans has had it.

UPDATE: 11:00 PM EST and *still* 160/914.

[Eye and Monkey]

7. Nat'l Weather Service probabilities from 11pm EDT say New Orleans-Gulfport

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/140232.shtml?

Buras, Louisiana - 20%
New Orleans, LA and Gulfport, MS - each 18%
Mobile, AL - 17%
New Iberia, LA and Pensacola - each 16%

Highest probability of landfall on Wed 8am-8pm.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. I think the Mississippi Delta is in for some rearranging

those probabilities are really high now!

[lostnfound]

10. New Orleans is already a city 'underwater' isn't it?

Much of it below sea level?

A hurricane there would be especially disastrous.

[Eye and Monkey]

13. The wetlands below NOLA aren't there anymore.

Or, as said in NOLA - "Ain't dere no mo..."

Yes, much of NOLA is below sea level except for Metairie Ridge, which comes in at a whopping 6ft above. Historically, the wetlands south of the city provided a bit of cushion for some of the effects of big storms. "Wacko-enviro-theorists" have been warning for decades. Those warnings were mostly unheeded, of course.

I hope that "Ain't Dere No Mo..." isn't the headline Thursday morning. Anywhere.

[Ilsa]

12. There's a mandatory evacuation order

for an area (I guess beach) in Pensacola for 6am tomorrow.

[shawmut]

8. Ivan

[WillyT]

14. It's In The Gulf...

:scared: