New Oregon poll: Bush, Wu, Measures 34 & 36 win

[lupita]

http://www.kgw.com/


I have been volunteering for Kerry and Wu. I just don't believe Bush can take Oregon.

[lancdem]

1. That's completely inconsistent

with every other Oregon poll. There's no way Bush will win Oregon. If Kerry were concerned, he'd be campaigning there.

[lupita]

2. Edwards was here last week...

You should also see the huge amount of volunteers. Maybe I am in my bubble, but I can't believe it.

On the other hand, I am glad for Wu, Ameri is terrible.

[lancdem]

4. This still matches no other poll - it's not even close

What do you know about the polling outfit?

[Zorra]

48. Riley Research Associates must be RWers, check out this Zogby

comparison from Sept 14:

Cheney, Edwards visits show Oregon still up for grabs Kerry has slight lead, but race still up for grabs

A Zogby International poll issued last Thursday showed Kerry backed by 53 percent to 43 percent for Bush and 4 percent undecided.

However, a recent poll conducted by Riley Research Associates of Portland found the race to be in a virtual tie in Oregon. The poll was taken of 507 voters who said they were "very likely'' to cast ballots on Nov. 2.

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=9389

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

3. Could be the Nader effect...repub fraudsters from Arizona

(the ones that tore up Dem registrations) moved on to Oregon.

[lupita]

37. Nader won't be in the ballot though n/t

[crossroads]

45. Oregon who is usually ahead of the times in their thinking?

Total BS!
:bounce: :kick:

[DarthDem]

5. Absolute Fucking Crap

Oregon is a Kerry lock. I am SICK of rigged polls designed to depress Democratic turnout.

[cliss]

47. Yeah, I'll believe that when I believe in

the Man in the Moon. There's no Flippin' way Old George will win in Oregon. Oregon has historically been a Democratic state. They don't call us the Left Coast for nothing. Multnomah County has a huge Democratic base that hasn't changed for decades.

I read the letters to the Editor every day. I look in the box that summarizes how many letters they got each day. They tally how many responses they've gotten on 'hot topics'.

Without exception, letters favoring Kerry versus Bush have been about 4 out of 5 in his favor. In other words, 80% are favoring Kerry in the Letters to the Editor.

The Oregonian just endorsed Kerry for President. This is a big lie.

[sonicx]

6. about as funny as the NJ poll that had bush ahead

[DerBeppo]

7. jersey's close

neither should be taken for granted.

[sonicx]

8. no it's not. the 2000 polls said the state was 'close' too and...

Gore ended up winning by double digits.

[Freddie Stubbs]

40. Actually, the polls in NJ in 2000 showed Gore with a wide lead

The survey also found Vice President Al Gore with a
comfortable, 12-point advantage over Texas Gov. George W.
Bush among Garden State voters, with 11 percent undecided.

http://www.google.com/groups?q=bush+gore+poll+%22new+jersey%22&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&safe=off&as_drrb=b&as_mind=15&as_minm=10&as_miny=2000&as_maxd=31&as_maxm=10&as_maxy=2000&selm=8thuud%24voj%241%40nnrp1.deja.com&rnum=1

[sonicx]

42. some didn't

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000792.php

snip

In New Jersey, three late polls, two by Quinnipiac University and one by the Gannett newspapers, all showed Al Gore with a fairly narrow lead--ranging from 5 to 8 points. Gore carried the state by 16. This year we're again seeing some state polls showing that New Jersey is close. We'll see if they're any more accurate this time than they were four years ago.

snip

[DarthDem]

11. No, It Isn't

Period.

[DerBeppo]

41. alright.

just keep taking states for granted.

everything is close.

[fujiyama]

49. What does this

"taking states for granted" thing even mean?

The campaign CAN'T spend money on every state where a poll is showing it to be close.

Remember resources are limited and FINITE. They can't spend millions everywhere. I wish they could but that's not the case.

That's why I don't blame the campaign for not spending money in OR and NJ. It's very unlikely a state shifts from giving Gore a winning margin of 16%, to it giving a Bush victory.

BTW, the Riley poll in OR has been right slanted for a while. It has been consistantly showing Bush leads, while all other pollsters have had the state going for Kerry by around 5 points.

[papau]

9. 400 likely voters - no info on just registered voters, 48-43 w MOE 5%

not exactly something you would take to the bank -

but interesting

:-)

[aquart]

14. FIVE PERCENT MOE???

Please. That's like saying "Haven't a clue."

[VegasWolf]

10. New poll: bush ahead in San Francisco by 10 n/t

[marlakay]

12. just came back from trip to oregon

down south there are a lot of bush signs and such but up north and all along the coast it is mostly Kerry. I talked to old and young and most of them want Kerry. It will be close because of the rural vote but I believe Kerry will win.

[movonne]

15. I'm not so sure it will close....remembering all the registering

and probably 3 to 1 would have registered Dems...now it they all get out and vote I doubt it will be close...in all these polls they are not polling the newly registered voters...

[sandnsea]

17. Down south

Jackson County, Medford, gave more money to Dems than Pubs this year. Ashland is solid Dem. So I don't think that area will go Bush anywhere near as much as it did in 2000. Unless you mean KFalls down south, a whole other headache. So I don't think it's going to be close and I don't know who in the world they're polling to get these results. Glad to hear you see what I see, as far as the coast and north goes anyway! Did ya see that stretch of Kerry signs right before Yachats? Too cool, 20 in a row!

[Mary0505]

13. There is no way.

Oregon is too liberal. This has to be a bunch of po po

[stevedeshazer]

16. Take my word for it

No way.

I'm a fifth-generation Oregonian. KGW is full of shit.

[stevedeshazer]

18. Riley Research is a PHONY operation

This Riley guy is a Republican.

Note this article: http://www.portlandtribune.com/archview.cgi?id=26290

Kerry leads in Oregon
Survey shows state may be less close than candidates thought

By DON HAMILTON Issue date: Tue, Sep 21, 2004
The Tribune

Sen. John Kerry leads President Bush 51 percent to 44 percent in Oregon, according to a new poll conducted for the Portland Tribune and KOIN (6).

The survey also showed three incumbent Democratic state officials — Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, Attorney General Hardy Myers and Treasurer Randall Edwards — all leading for re-election.
Oregon, with its modest seven electoral votes, has attracted more attention from the presidential candidates than usual this year because Bush lost here in 2000 by only 6,765 votes. The competition reached a peak Aug. 13 when both Kerry and Bush were in town at the same time.
Most recent polls have shown Kerry leading Bush in Oregon. One, conducted by Riley Research from Aug. 26 to Sept. 1, showed the candidates in a dead heat. But a Sept. 2 survey by Zogby International showed Kerry leading 53 percent to 43 percent.

[stevedeshazer]

23. More Riley Research debunking

State polls have contrary presidential race results

Two surveys conducted in Oregon last week reached opposite conclusions on which presidential candidate is leading in the state. A survey by Portland pollster Mike Riley found President George W. Bush leading Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, 48 percent to 43 percent. A poll by American Research Group of New Hampshire showed Democrat Kerry at 49 percent and Republican Bush at 44 percent.

The American Research poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Oct. 9-12 and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The Riley survey of 400 likely voters was done Oct. 9-13 and had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

The difference can be explained partly by survey methodology. The Riley poll assumes Republicans will be a larger share of the turnout than does the American Research survey. Figuring out exactly who will go to the polls has been a difficult challenge for pollsters this year.

source (read down in column): http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1097928320288440.xml

[lupita]

39. I thank you very much for this... Tomorrow I will be debunking...

the Bush's twins who are coming to Beaverton.
Of course, the public isn't invited. As a professional mom, I am going to explain why I am voting for Kerry.


Lupita

[stevedeshazer]

44. Best of luck, du_fan

I'm sure Jenna and Tonic will have something positive to say to Beaverton!

[fujiyama]

50. Here's a list of polls for the last 2 months

9/1/04 Riley Research 507 LV 4% Bush 46% Kerry 45% Bush +1
9/2/04 Zogby Intl 430 LV 5% Bush 43% Kerry 53% Kerry +10
9/13/04 ARG Link 600 LV 4% Bush 45% Kerry 47% Kerry +2
9/16/04 Mason-Dixon 625 LV 4% Bush 47% Kerry 43% Bush +4
9/16/04 Research2000 600 LV 4% Bush 44% Kerry 51% Kerry +7
9/21/04 SurveyUSA 747 LV 4% Bush 48% Kerry 47% Bush +1
9/21/04 Rasmussen 500 LV 5% Bush 43% Kerry 51% Kerry +8
9/23/04 Research2000 600 LV 4% Bush 44% Kerry 50% Kerry +6
9/27/04 Hibbitts 624 RV 4% Bush 45% Kerry 47% Kerry +2
10/11/04 SurveyUSA 628 LV 4% Bush 44% Kerry 53% Kerry +9
10/12/04 ARG Link 600 LV 4% Bush 44% Kerry 49% Kerry +5
10/13/04 Riley Research 400 LV 5% Bush 48% Kerry 43% Bush +5

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Riley has been consistantly more favorable towards republicans. It's an outlier. It's not worth worrying about.

[sandnsea]

22. Meas 36 doesn't look right either

I think it may well pass, but 57 - 36??? No way. That right there shows you who they polled, don't you think? And if Bush isn't leading with a wider margin than 5 points with a skewed voter pool, he's sunk for sure.

[stevedeshazer]

25. Bingo

This guy wants desperately to be the right wing version of Tim Hibbitts.

I don't buy any of what he is selling.

[stevedeshazer]

34. Yeah, I'm afraid M36 will pass

But not 57-36, no way. Maybe 52-48.

[henslee]

52. Like your straight forward style, Stevie D. Its just a waste of time

linking to such trash. And look at how much energy is wasted reacting to it, my post included.

[Robert Oak]

19. kerry signs everywhere on coast, bush signs nowhere

The American Research poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Oct. 9-12 and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The Riley survey of 400 likely voters was done Oct. 9-13 and had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

The difference can be explained partly by survey methodology. The Riley poll assumes Republicans will be a larger share of the turnout than does the American Research survey. Figuring out exactly who will go to the polls has been a difficult challenge for pollsters this year.

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1097928320288440.xml

[Robert Oak]

20. Ratio of Repukes to demos, this poll reverses the real number

As of August, there were roughly 762,000 registered Democrats in Oregon and about 697,000 registered Republicans. More than 420,000 voters identified themselves as independent and the rest identified themselves with minor parties.

http://www.newsregister.com/news/story.cfm?story_no=186068

[unfrigginreal]

21. Toss it

Sample size of 400.
Here's the age breakdown:
18-24 3%
25-34 9%
35-44 15%
45-54 20%
55-64 19%
65-74 21%
75+ 13%

So, if you believe that there will be more 75 yo.'s voting than 18-34 yo.'s then by all means put some faith into it.

http://www.rileyresearch.com/Riley%20Report%2010-14-04.pdf

[sandnsea]

24. That explains Meas 36

I wondered how they got so many in support of that.

[DarthDem]

26. HAHAHAHAHA

Are you serious??? That is SO funny. Exhibit A as to everything that is wrong with polling these days. Thanks for this great catch.

[stevedeshazer]

29. There ya go

Total BS

[tmooses]

27. I'm a volunteer in Benton County

And I don't think Bush is polling better than Kerry, at least in the phone banking I've been doing for Benton, Linn and Lincoln counties.

[swag]

28. It's an outlier, just like the Riley September poll which KGW's own

political analyst disparaged.

That firm seems to have some problems, though I'm not sure what they are. Their results do not mesh at all with any of the other Oregon polls.

And I can tell you from here on the ground that John Kerry and John Edwards will take Oregon by a substantial margin.

[depakid]

30. Why would you even post such obviously bogus results

from a cheap local media poll?

Frankly, it's insulting... as are the local media outlets who constantly whore for Bush and the war.

[DemMother]

31. Googled Riley Research Associates; his other big Oct. poll was about wild

salmon--whether people prefer it to farmed salmon.

His last poll in September showed Kerry behind the little man by one. Just not to be believed.

The Oregonian pointed out that the earlier poll oversampled repubs--although I think that's only a small part of the problem.

The paper also said that Riley conducted the poll on his own and not for a client. That's just bizarre. Why in the world would a pollster go out and do a poll on his own.

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1094644855224680.xml

[VegasWolf]

32. Maybe its O'Riley Research Associates. n/t

[stevedeshazer]

33. I remember that

When even the Oregonian comes out debunking this guy, you know he's on shaky ground.

[Buck Rabbit]

35. We don't go to the polls in Oregon, we mail the ballots in.

Turnout percent will be huge. This poll is pure crap. Oregon being close would be shocking, a 5 point lead is absurd.

By the way Mrs Rabbit and I mailed in our ballots on Saturday, Kerry takes huge lead in Oregon in real votes!!

[FightingIrish]

36. Southern Oregon is going to be an unpleasant surprise for *

Local media polls have been extremely close and today the Mail Tribune endorsed John Kerry. Bush has to win big in the red parts of the state and Jackson County is slipping from his grasp. An undecided friend who was leaning Bush got to participate in the Bush circus on Thursday. He called me Friday after seeing the bush machine up close and personal. His vote is going to Kerry.

[neverforget]

38. As an Oregonian, I say bullshit! Bush is going down in flames here.

Here in Lake Oswego, a wealthy conservative suburb, Kerry/Edwards signs outnumber * at least 2 to 1. President Phoney doesn't have a chance here.

Measure 36, that I can see winning unfortunately......as for Wu, I don't know. I'm in Hooley's district.

[crossroads]

43. That is a Rep BS poll!

Not possible!
:bounce:

[TriMetFan]

46. For all my fellow Oregonians Kerry will win our state on Nov. 2nd.

I drive for Tri-Met and just yesterday the route I drove went from Gresham to Sherwood and I counted just over 72 car stickers for Kerry and 7 for Bush. And today on the way to church my kid and I counted 82 Kerry lawn signs to 8 Bush. After church we went to Kerry's headquarters to get more lawn signs and when we got home, we started to put them out when a lady that lives a few homes down from us asked if we could give her one. I put one in her lawn, then my kids and I went door to door asking if any one need one. So out of the ten I had gotten I got to keep one. We plan to do this again tomorrow. I do got to say I have gone a little over board cause I have about 7 Kerry signs in my yard. But the #33 runs in front of my home and I want the passengers to see the Kerry signs plus the American Flag that has been flying everyday since 9/11 2001. I plan to put one more sign out tomorrow and that one will be hand made: Save America Outsource Bush.

Now Wu I think he will win. But Measure 36 will pass but not by that much. I say 51% to 49%. It will end up in the State Supreme Court.

[Arugula Latte]

53. It's amazing you saw that many Kerry stickers in Gresham

I would have suspected the margins would have been closer. Great news!

I see an unbelievable amount of Kerry stickers in Portland, but then when I cross the line into Beaverton, it seems like the W04 stickers are not that far behind Kerry stickers, which is quite depressing.

Still, I think that the only way that Bush will win Oregon will be in a context of a Bush landslide, and in that case Oregon won't matter anyway.

[Pastiche423]

51. Here, in our small rural town

our newspaper has an online presidential poll. As of today, October 17, it reads:

John Kerry 72.2%
George W. Bush 26.3%
Ralph Nader 1.6%

Total Votes: 1828


The World

I must admit, I was shocked.