Democracy Corps Poll: Kerry Leads by 3%

[pmbryant]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000803.php

October 19, 2004

Democracy Corps Poll: Kerry Leads by 3%

John Kerry leads George Bush 50-47 percent of nation-wide LV's, according to a Democracy Corps Poll, conducted 10/17-18.

Here's the original source: http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_October_17-18_2004_Survey.pdf


Peter

ON EDIT: Here's some info on Democracy Corps' track record:

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000795.php

October 17, 2004

Gallup Vs. Democracy Corps Redux

By Alan Abramowitz

A new Gallup poll has George Bush leading John Kerry by 8 points among likely voters. A new Democracy Corps poll has Kerry leading Bush by 3 points among likely voters. Who should you believe? Hint: If you've been following my previous messages, you should know the answer to this question.

Remember, in 2000, Democracy Corps' final poll, released five days before the election, was right on the money. In fact, every D.C. poll in the final weeks of the 2000 campaign showed the race to be very, very close.

(snip)

[UCLA Dem]

1. awesome!!

Thanks for posting this!!

[lancdem]

2. That's the same as their previous poll

and their track record in 2000 was a helluva lot better than Gallup's.

[Catt03]

5. Read that

Democracy Corp and Zogby were the closest in 2000 right?

[dennis4868]

3. Isn't this a partisan poll....

by the dems?

If the repubs came out with a poll that said Bush by 3 we would throw it in the trash because it was clearly partisan, right?

[MidwestTransplant]

4. Yup

I don't give it much credibility.

[oldsneakers]

7. It's probably as valid as any other poll

Right now any poll with good news is welcome to get out our base

[pmbryant]

6. And Gallup and Rasmussen are non-partisan?

All polls are partisan. The question is credibility. Some have them. Some don't.

Democracy Corps happens to have credibility.

Of course, it's still just one poll. Statistical error alone is enough to call this pretty much even.

--Peter

[Democat]

11. Is there such a thing as a non-partisan poll?

Next we'll hear that the media isn't biased. :)

[mom cat]

8. You just made my day

:hug:

[Ernesto]

9. For you folks that don't remember....

Gore was 15 points behind going into the 2000 election. What's that tell ya Sparky?
For those who don't get it: chimp is going to have plenty of time to clear brush next year (if he can stay out of jail).

[StupidFOX]

10. Happy Dance!!

That suggests Kerry will win by 18% lol

[Ernesto]

12. Holy Shit!

You are FAST!

[StupidFOX]

14. Fast like a fox... fast like a fox...

[hedda_foil]

13. WOW! Take a look at the internals!

What I LOVE about Stan Greenberg's (Democracy Corps and other) polls is how SMART they are. They not only try very hard for a really good demographic sample, but they also test variations on Kerry's messaging against Bush's. The way they do it is astounding, and absolutely captures the national heartbeat. Take a look at how many national cultural demographics they track perfectly, and how completely they break down their sample groups compared to other polls.

Then look at the end of the poll, where the perfect demographics (racial, ethnic, financial, religious, etc) end up lopsidedly Bush in the 2000 race.

<902 Respondents>
Q.81 In the 2000 election for President, did you vote for Democrat Al Gore, Republican George Bush, or
Green Party candidate Ralph Nader?
Total
Democrat Al Gore......................................................................... 44
Republican George Bush............................................................... 50
Green Party candidate Ralph Nader ............................................... 3
(Other candidate)............................................................................ 1
(Don't know/refused)...................................................................... 3

Now go back to the section which tests messages and look at just how the Kerry message they've developed works against Bush's best messages, and how there's an extra bump when he specifically says he'll kill the terrorists before they can hurt us BEFORE going into the rest of the message. This is how Greenberg wins campaigns ... not by just tracking data, but by testing and refining messages.

I doubt VERY much if the pukes have anyone in their stable who can match Greenberg at this game.

[pmbryant]

15. Message testing

One thing the GOP appears to have been very good at in recent years is testing their public message. They don't let their public message affect what they actually do, unfortunately.

--Peter

[fujiyama]

16. I would have been

really skeptical and even dismissive of this simply because it's a partisan poll - BUT they did come very close to nailing the '00 election. They were more accurate than say Gallup.

This is good news...two weeks to go - gotta get the vote out!