STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 8 November

[ozymandius]

Monday November 8, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 332 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 21 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1082
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 5, 2004

Dow... 10,387.54 +72.78 (+0.71%)
Nasdaq... 2,038.94 +15.31 (+0.76%)
S&P 500... 1,166.17 +4.50 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.19% +0.12 (+2.90%)
Gold future... 434.30 +3.20 (+0.74%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[54anickel]

1. Good Morning Ozy. Great Toon again today. n/t

[ozymandius]

8. Good morning 54anickel. Thanks.

It is very active around the house today and we need to run some errands in a little bit. So I will be scarce.

I'll hang out as long as time and activities allow.

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 83.96 Change -0.05 (-0.06%)

Dollar Turns to Fed Meeting for Some Help

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/defaultnew.asp?f=N20041107D.mgn

As we head into this week’s much expected rate hike by the Federal Reserve, we doubt whether a quarter-point tightening to 2.0% in the fed funds rate would alter the deteriorating sentiment injuring the US currency. This notion is especially reinforced by the possibility that the Fed’s rate hike may be the last of the year. Although there stands a 50% chance of another rate hike in December, such a tightening would also be seen as the last of the Fed’s current tightening cycle as the combination of high oil prices and low US inflation spells slowdown.

Dollar bulls could well point to rising cash positions in US companies to be mobilized into higher business spending and even hiring especially now that election uncertainty has given way to 4 more years of fiscal stimulus. It can be agreed that Friday’s haughty October report was a reflection of a month’s data benefiting mostly from post- hurricane demand for construction jobs. Manufacturing jobs were down for the second straight month. The question is will we see a continuation of the sharp growth in services jobs.

SEE LATEST ARTICLES & IDEAS FOR MORE ANALYSIS ON JOBS, FED & THE DOLLAR.

The other key events from the US are Wednesday’s US deficit figures for September and US October retail sales on Thursday. Germany’s ZEW sentiment survey on Tuesday is expected to have slipped in November after a slight increase in October. A crucial event for the UK shall be Wednesday’s Bank of England quarterly inflation report, which shall determine the central bank’s inflation outlook in the medium-term and the long medium term (2-year horizon).

<snip>

Aside from concerns with the US structural imbalances, we saw last week how German Chancellor Schroeder’s benign comments on the euro’s appreciation and ECB president Trichet concern with inflationary pressures were instrumental to the euro’s jump on Thursday and Friday. Should neither of the key Euro politicians (Schroeder, Eichel, Chirac, Sarkozy or Prodi) show any concern this week, we could easily see the euro shatter the $1.30 level and onto to 1.3030. More importantly, traders should also watch for comments from ECB officials (Trichet, Papademos, Issing, Weber or Noyer).
With eyes set on the $1.30 figure, euro resistance stands at $1.3030 and 1.3050.. Support lifts up to 1.2830-35, followed by 1.2790 and 1.2740-50.

Japan unlikely to intervene as long as its dollar problem

Apart from the usual remarks threatening to take action in the event of rapid currency moves, Japanese officials have done nothing else in stemming the yen’s appreciation. We think that as long as the yen’s rise is part of a dollar problem, Japanese officials are unexpected to intervene aggressively because such action would be eventually short-lived. Officials recognize that it would be fruitless to stem a move that is widely borne out of deteriorating dollar sentiment. But we expect the BoJ to do the following: 1) step up its intervenionist rhetoric once the ECB begins to show concern in order to gain more effect; 2) to launch operational intervention when the dollar decline is stabilized.

...more...

Fed Expected to Stay the Course for Now

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/08/business/08fed.html

WASHINGTON, Nov. 7 - If there is a good rule of thumb about the Federal Reserve, it is this: A startling economic report is not enough to sway policy.

When the Labor Department reported on Friday that employment surged by 337,000 jobs in October, far faster than most forecasters had expected, market speculators immediately raised their bets that the Federal Reserve would not pause in its course of gradually raising interest rates.

Fed officials have left no doubt that they will raise short-term rates on Wednesday by a quarter point, to 2 percent, but they are still keeping their options open for December and next year.

<snip>

Even if the central bank announces another rate increase on Wednesday, as most analysts expect, "real" short-term rates will still be slightly below zero after subtracting the effect of inflation.

Historically, the real federal funds rate, the rate charged on overnight loans between banks, has averaged about three percentage points above the inflation rate. While Fed officials have warned that there are no clear rules for a neutral or normal rate, they have made it clear that today's rates are low enough to aggravate inflation if left unchanged.

<snip>

The "trend" growth rate is about 3 percent a year, Mr. Hale said, which would probably mean modest growth in employment and relatively little pressure from workers for higher wages.

"If growth is at trend, the Fed will be under less pressure to act against inflation and can afford to wait for more data," he predicted

...more...

Treasuries Decline on Concern Fed to Lift Rates Amid Debt Sales

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aVUL7tJE2D.8&refer=us

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year notes fell in Asia as traders prepared to bid for $51 billion of debt being sold this week and on expectations the Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point in two days.

Notes had the biggest decline since July on Nov. 5 after the government said the economy added the most jobs last month since March. The surge in job creation raised speculation the central bank will boost its target rate at meetings Nov. 10 and Dec. 14.

``Treasuries could go even lower with the Fed expected to raise interest rates at least once more this year,'' said Hidetaka Namiki, head bond trader at the Tokyo unit of Banc of America Securities LLC, one of 22 primary U.S. government securities dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

...more...

China to pursue more flexible currency mechanism

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2004/11/8/business/9348092&sec=business

BEIJING: China's central bank said the country will further reforms to “create a more flexible exchange-rate mechanism,'' responding to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommendation that the yuan's peg should be relaxed.

``We will take measures in various ways to further this reform, in a gradual and steady manner,'' the People's Bank of China said in a statement on its website. Last Friday the IMF released a 72-page report, which said a more flexible exchange rate would help China's government achieve its goal of a gradual economic slowdown.

China buys dollars to ensure the yuan stays at about 8.3 per US dollar and the government is concerned that a loosening of its nine-year-old currency peg might trigger capital inflows, hampering state efforts to cool the economy, according to the IMF report. Inflows would force the government to issue more yuan, boosting money supply. – Bloomberg

...very short newsblurb...

No reports due today.

Great 'toon, Ozy! :hi:

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

4. UIA, what or who is pumping the buck up this morning? Looks extremely

volatile today. "Achieved" a Low of 83.76 (twice)since open. Sure trying to avoid that technical 83.75 from last week! Just shot up to 84.04 in less than an hour. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

7. probably hedgers

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/defaultnew.asp?f=N20041108B.mgn

USD Mired Near Lows Amid Quiet Session by Korman Tam

At 11:50 AM Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Longworth Speaks

Although dollar selling let up slightly in a quiet overnight session, the currency remains mired near record lows against the euro around 1.2985 and a fresh multi-year low against the Swiss franc at 1.1760. Interestingly, not only did Friday’s unexpectedly strong US labor report fail to trigger a dollar rally, a sharp dumping of the currency subsequently ensued. Market sentiment for the currency remains heavily bearish, as evident from the CFTC futures data, which saw net buying in euro, Australian dollar, and Swiss franc at fresh record highs.

The coming week will see several key reports including US trade balance, GDP data from Japan, Germany and the Eurozone, and the BoE’s monthly inflation report. Also of note this week will be Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision, in which the Fed is widely anticipated to hike rates by 25-bp to 2.0%. More importantly however, will be the accompanying statement, in which markets will scrutinize for clues as to whether another 25-bp hike may be slated for the December meeting. Nevertheless, with markets already pricing in a Fed hike this week, dollar gains may be short-lived and viewed as a better level to sell.

...more...

[54anickel]

12. Ahh, I see thanks. I've got all kinds of questions, not sure if you can

answer them or not though.

When those multinationals start repatriating their dollars next year (due to that 30% tax-break), what effect might that have? That's a lot of $ washing back up on shore to be cycled back into our economy. I'm thinking it would be about the same as printing lots of bucks, which means inflation. Would it feed bubbles in the stock market since profits will rise?

With China spending their excess bucks to buy oil rights and gold mines and god only knows what else in places like Canada, Sudan, Iran, etc - Do they pay these foreign entities with US$, or sell the US$ for the native currency? Are they spreading worth less (or worthless) bucks around the globe or are they selling them (lowering the $ even more) at Forex?

I'm just trying to figure out the odds for hyperinflation, stagflation, deflation, or the slim Repuke prospect of elation before I place a wager. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

I would assume that the repatriation of dollars

will only swell a minority of coffers - CEO and executive board salaries and bonuses, stock dividends (not taxable) and the like.

I will also assume that those dollars will not be spent on investment in the US (job creation) as it is unnecessary to put more people on the payroll to do a job that has been offshored or outsourced.

Merely more corporate profits and governmental subsidies that go to the top.

Look for no benefit for the average US citizen residing within this country's borders.

[54anickel]

20. Oh yeah, they admitted that in one article I posted over the weekend. I'm

just wondering what effect it will have on the US$ and economy in general. The article I read said those surveyed had no plans to create jobs, it will go to dividends, stock buy-backs and R&D.

[UpInArms]

16. also remember, talk is cheap

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38299.3775603819-826080000&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Dollar improves against euro in wake of Trichet comment By Rachel Koning
CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar was trading modestly higher against the euro in early U.S. trading, finding some footing after cautionary comments from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. Trichet said following a meeting with central bankers in Basel that the euro's latest advance on the dollar was "brutal" and "not welcome." His remarks served as "verbal intervention," said analysts at Action Economics. The dollar improved from an all-time low of $1.2985 against the euro hit earlier Monday to trade around $1.2922, or up 0.3 percent from Friday's U.S. level. The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 105.65 Japanese yen.

[UpInArms]

43. European Bank Chief Talks Up Dollar

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6747711

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc and the euro on Monday as traders took profits after the head of the European Central Bank said the euro zone unit's recent climb against the dollar was "brutal" and unwelcome.

<snip>

Earlier Monday before traders had started taking profits, the euro had hit a fresh record high just below the psychologically important level of $1.30.

Analysts believe sentiment on the dollar remains bearish, however, owing to deep-seated concerns over U.S. trade and budget deficits.

<snip>

He said the euro zone's central bank, by commenting on the market, seemed to be taking a first step in containing any further rise in the euro. A stronger euro shields the euro zone from high oil prices but makes its exports more expensive.

"I wouldn't rule out more noise, and the next wave of noise would be on the policy front," Tenengauzer said.

...more...

(stupid one sentence paragraphs :grr: )

[54anickel]

49. Dollar stabilizes after Trichet comment

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?page=1&guid={62D4D07F-2E15-438F-80DE-D5113B843F6A}&siteid=mktw

snip>

Treasury spokesman Rob Nichols was asked to comment on criticism from a French official earlier in the day.

Nichols said Treasury Secretary John Snow has said strong dollar policy has not changed. See related item.

French Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy stressed earlier on Monday the Group of Seven's joint statement from its February meeting, in which officials spoke out against "excessive volatility" in currency markets.

"The Europeans and Americans jointly signed the Boca Raton G-7 statement and we believe the statement remains valid and I think the United States must remember it," Sarkozy said, according to Reuters.

snip>

Pain tolerance

The dollar has fallen sharply against its counterparts in the wake of the U.S. presidential election. President Bush's win of another four years in the White House is seen doing little in the near term to reverse record U.S. budget and trade deficits, which contribute to economic uncertainty and weigh on the U.S. currency.

"The market is now being made by hedge funds, so pressure remains on the dollar across the board," said Kaneo Ogino, head of foreign exchange trading at HSBC in Tokyo. "There's still selling pressure as long as people see the twin deficits."

snip>

Even without intervention, Japan's foreign exchange reserves in October rose to a record $837.88 billion, the government said on Monday. That's up $6.89 billion from the previous month.

more...

[UpInArms]

3. U.S. Treasuries Decline on Concern Fed to Lift Rates

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=adUARvs87Y74&refer=us

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell in London before the government's sale of $51 billion of bonds and a Federal Reserve meeting at which policy makers probably will raise their benchmark interest rate.

Notes had the biggest decline since July on Nov. 5 after the government said the U.S. economy added the most jobs last month since March. The surge in job creation raised speculation the central bank will boost its target rate by a quarter of a percentage point at meetings Nov. 10 and Dec. 14.

``The market is telling us that 25 basis points for November is pretty much a given and even for December we have now more than 80 percent chance,'' of a another quarter-point increase, said Tobias Hartmann, a bond strategist in London at Commerzbank AG, Germany's fourth-biggest bank by assets. ``For bonds, everything points lower with higher yields.''

...more...

[54anickel]

5. Heh, so what if you held an auction and nobody came?

We get to watch 3 daily auctions in a row this week. It will be interesting to see who shows up.

[ozymandius]

11. What was it that I read a few days ago about trends...?

The buyers have been trending away from private individuals. The concentration of buying has been among central banks.

I wonder how heavily invested Greenscam is at this point.

[ozymandius]

15. Interest rate rise expected this week

Federal Reserve (news - web sites) policymakers are widely expected to raise interest rates to their highest level in three years when they meet Wednesday.

But the increase, the fourth this year, might be the last for 2004.

Although news Friday showed employers added jobs at the fastest pace in seven months in October, uncertainties in the economy might lead Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) and his colleagues to stay on the sidelines next month. High oil prices, slower-than-expected business investment and a cloudy outlook for consumer spending could lead Fed officials to leave rates unchanged in December.

-cut-

Still, Fed officials are widely expected to raise their target for short-term interest rates by a quarter-percentage point to 2% when they meet Wednesday. That will bring rates to their highest level since November 2001, when the Fed was swiftly cutting interest rates following the Sept. 11 attacks. Even at 2%, the Fed's rate target, which influences borrowing costs across the economy, would still be extremely low historically.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=677&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/usatoday/20041108/bs_usatoday/interestrateriseexpectedthisweek

[UpInArms]

21. US Treasuries struggle with supply as Fed looms

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6745001

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Treasuries gave ground on Monday as the market prepared to absorb $51 billion of new supply in a week where official interest rates are likely to rise for the fourth time this year.

The sale of three-, five and 10-year paper also comes hot on the heels of a strong October payrolls report which significantly raised the risk of a more aggressive tightening path from the Federal Reserve.

The Fed meets Wednesday and is widely expected to hike its funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to 2.00 percent, with the announcement due just an hour after the 10-year auction closes. Thus investors are being asked to buy all this paper without knowing what the Fed might say in its post-meeting statement.

"This is not going to be the easiest Treasury refunding sale," said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

"The market's tone is negative after the hard sell-off following the jobs number. Bond futures have backed up some already ... but this may not be enough of a concession," he added.

In early trading, the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 5/32 in price, lifting its yield to 4.20 percent from 4.17 percent late on Friday and from lows last week near 4.00 percent. Bears are now looking to test a major chart barrier around 4.25 percent, the peak for yields last month.

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. Treasuries drop, Fed worries outweigh strong sale

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6747981

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices fell on Monday despite a solid three-year note auction as the bearish tide that followed last week's robust jobs report continued to sweep the market lower.

Just two days before the Federal Reserve meets to decide on its next monetary policy step, bonds were still reeling from news of a considerable pickup in hiring during October.

Not only did the U.S. employment data cement expectations for another quarter percentage point rate hike this week, it also boosted the chances for another tightening in December.

Traders said worries about just what the Fed's statement on Wednesday might bring largely overshadowed a surprisingly strong auction of $22 billion in three-year notes.

The new debt went at a high yield of 3.090 percent and drew bids for 2.24 times the amount on offer, well above August's 2.02 level and the average of 2.12 for the year.

Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up a hefty $11.55 billion, or 53 percent, of the issue, well above August's 36 percent share, which should please traders. Primary dealers took $9.96 billion of the sale.

...more...

[54anickel]

6. Second-Term Realities

The article is the last entry on the page

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

Vice President Cheney spoke confidently of having won a broad national “mandate,” while President Bush exclaimed, “I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.” There is no reason to doubt that the Administration will forcefully pursue its ambitious agenda. The President and his team are empowered, with an overarching goal of a second term worthy of an historic legacy. It is, as well, rational that they would today edge toward overconfidence and complacency when it comes to the great risks they will confront during the next four years.

I have no intention to attempt what would surely be amateur political analysis, and I am an analyst and not a partisan. There is no shortage of political insight and pontification these days. Yet I do see a dearth of cogent analysis of the financial, economic and social backdrop that will play a profound role in the political process as we go forward. We witnessed an incredible campaign of “guns and butter” from the opposing parties, heavy on promises and featherweight on economic realities. And now the undoubting victor will attempt to lead a deeply divided nation on an aggressive course in an environment fraught with significant and myriad risks – some discernable.

Never before have financial markets played such a central role in society. More are exposed to marketable securities; more giddily play the mortgage and housing markets; and more have their retirement tied directly to the stock and bond markets. And never before have so many livelihoods been associated with financial and real estate asset prices. The melding of politics to wealth creation – in this case financial wealth - is an innate process, and fanciful notions of an “ownership society” do indeed captivate while in the bosom of an historic asset Bubble. I believe it is reasonable to suggest that had the stock market not recovered, had mortgage rates not dropped to record lows, and had home prices not inflated significantly, the political agenda today would be altogether different. I don’t think one can exaggerate the profound political and social effects of The Great Reflation. And with no intention of being flippant, I do not expect gay marriage to be a major issue in 2008.

In my mind, there is a paramount analytical issue to contemplate: The Bush administration today ardently believes that their policy choices were responsible for what has developed into sustainable economic recovery. And having persevered through a stock market scare, technology collapse, recession, 9/11, Enron and corporate malfeasance, a sinking currency and going to war, there must now be great faith that a much more favorable financial and economic backdrop exists to bless their aggressive agenda. Yet the reality of the environment is not as perceived, and this fact of life will not be efficiently recognized: An historic reflation, inciting “blow-off” Credit Bubble excess, was the dominating feature of the second-half of President Bush’s first term. It is, moreover, at best unsustainable.

more...

[RawMaterials]

9. Don't worry about when * bankrupts America, because

in the new binlodin tape he says thats what he wants to do.
so when * policy's on taxation and deficit spending ruin are country, we still have the good old boogie man to blame. Plus we still can sell all are weapons to who ever wants them(n Korea, china, Iran and Israel)

[ozymandius]

10. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Sectors and Cycles

In today’s wrap up I want to examine a few sectors to see just how well they are participating in the current market rally. When I look at these sectors I have to look at them from a cyclical perspective. So, please don’t let your eyes glaze over on me here. By using cycles it allows us to segregate the moves into moves of the same degree. Then, we see if the particular sector has moved above or below the previous high or low point of the same degree. In an effort to keep this relatively straight forward I will look primarily at the intermediate term cycle highs and lows. We can then gauge the relative strength or weakness based on the price movements above or below these intermediate term price points.

The first index that I want to look at below is the Housing Index. I have marked the recent intermediate term cycle lows with an “IT.” I want to begin with the May 2004 cycle low. This low constituted both an intermediate term low as well as a low of the next larger degree. This was an important low. From that low this index rallied into the recent October high at 412.96. By doing so, this index was able to push marginally above the previous intermediate term cycle high point, which occurred in March at 407.93. Failing to have moved above the March high would have constituted a failure at this level. The fact that this index was able to push above this level kept the cyclical structure of this sector positive. Also, notice that the October intermediate term cycle low occurred above the May intermediate term low. This all serves to keep the intermediate term cyclical structure and trend positive. From the October intermediate term cycle low the Housing Index is once again moving up and the test is now on. The question is, “Will this intermediate term cycle expend its energy moving up or moving down?” If this index can push above the October high at 412.96 it will mean that this index has a chance to run much higher as the new intermediate term cycle has just begun. A break above 412.96 would be bullish and as insane as the housing market already is, this index will then be telling us that it could become even more insane. But, failure of this intermediate term cycle to move above 412.96 would constitute a failure, which would indeed be bearish. Also, for this sector to remain bullish it must hold above the October low at 367.60. For now, I have to be bullish on this sector and especially so if 412.96 can be penetrated.

-cut-

Next we have the dollar. This is obviously not a sector, but the events that transpired this week in the dollar are extremely important and for that reason I wanted to talk about it.

The February 2004 low was not only an intermediate term cycle low, but also a 4-year cycle low in the dollar. Historically, the dollar has held up above that low for at least the duration of an annual cycle. This has been true 100% of the time following each of the previous 4-year cycle lows. What we saw this week was a FIRST. With the dollar moving below the February 4-year cycle low prior to completion of the annual cycle, the dollar has now moved into uncharted waters. Confirming this move is the weekly Cycle Turn Indicator and the weekly Trend Indicator. I’ll add that these indicators are all now negative on a monthly and quarterly basis as well. There are some intermediate and short term cycle lows coming due in the dollar. However, because of the break below the February 2004 low any moves up from here in the dollar should be a counter trend bounce against the larger declining 4-year cycle.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

13. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Drop; Pfizer Falls in Europe

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aq.4qlLhlF5k&refer=us

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures fell on concern nine consecutive gains for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, its longest winning streak since 1997, may have outpaced the outlook for corporate earnings growth.

Pfizer Inc. slid in Europe as New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer requested information on its drug promotions. International Business Machines Corp. also fell.

S&P 500 futures expiring in December lost 3.1 to 1164.50 as of 10:36 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 22 to 10,368. Nasdaq-100 Index futures declined 2.5 to 1528. Twenty-three Dow stocks declined as four rose.

The Dow had its best week since March 2003, helped by President George W. Bush's re-election and a report showing faster-than-expected job creation in October. Oil prices above this year's average and a possible interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve Wednesday means profits may still suffer, strategists including Jordi Padilla said.

``With last week's gains, there is room for some short-term selling,'' said Padilla, a strategist at Atlas Capital in Madrid, which manages $185 million. ``Stocks still need to gear up to high oil prices and to a possible increase in interest rates this week.''

more...

[54anickel]

14. Check out these article titles from the WSJ listed at Prudent Bear today -

China's Next Export Could Be Inflation As Its Own Costs Rise - WSJ ($) (11/8/2004 6:30 AM)
How Good Was 3rd Quarter? Not as Rosy as You Thought - WSJ ($) (11/8/2004 6:32 AM)
Surging Imports Of Food Threaten Wider Trade Gap - WSJ ($) (11/8/2004 6:27 AM)
The Long View: ‘An accident waiting to happen’? - FT ($) (11/7/2004 8:20 PM)


I'll try to login to the student library and find the articles later today when I get home. I've got some errands to run as well today.

[54anickel]

17. Here's one, someone posted in another thread and for some reason

you don't need a subscription.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x968782

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB109987062938867100,00.html?

[ozymandius]

18. Related article: nevermind that it is AFP

China and Asia should brace themselves for US trade friction: economist

BEIJING (AFP) - China and other Asian economies should brace themselves for possible severe trade friction with the United States due to large American trade deficits, a top US economist says.

The specter of a more protectionist America is rising even though the US trade shortfalls are largely a problem of its own making, according to Stephen Roach, the chief international economist for US investment bank Morgan Stanley.

"I do believe that the risk of protectionism will rise, largely because the Bush administration refuses to accept its responsibility in pushing down US savings through its reckless fiscal policy," he told a briefing in Beijing.

"That is an early sign for Asia in general, and you in China in particular, to prepare for the likelihood that trade frictions could intensify, in large part because of actions taking place in Washington rather than in Beijing."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=2&u=/afp/20041108/bs_afp/china_economy_asia_us&sid=96001027

Looks like Wal-Mart is about to raise its prices.

[54anickel]

23. Thanks Ozy! And here's an article about the IMF putting pressure on

China as well.

IMF warns of Chinese hard landing

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13132-1345954,00.html


snip>

The research behind this month's IMF report was completed in July. Since then China has enacted some of the measures advised by the body. Last week, China raised interest rates for the first time in nine years in a move designed to moderate economic growth.

The IMF called for further far reaching measures and reiterated that "greater exchange rate flexibility remains in China's best interest".

The IMF board said that economic conditions favoured such a move "without undue delay."

Chinese government officials have told the IMF they are worried about the potential impact of an appreciation of the coutry's curreny, the yuan, on the domestic economy. A rise in teh value of the yuan would make Chinese exports more expensive.

They were also concerned that a small initial move could only lead to greater capital inflows.

The Chinese authorities said yesterday that it would crack down on speculative foreign exchange trading to maintain its economic stability.

Chana's foreign exchange regulator said it would act to deter speculators from betting on a revaluation of the yuan, following last week's rise in interest rates.

more...

[54anickel]

19. S.E.C. Is Said to Examine Stock Pricing by Big Brokers

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/08/business/08sec.html?oref=login&oref=login

The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating about a dozen brokerage firms - including Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Ameritrade, Charles Schwab and E*Trade Financial - on suspicion that they failed to secure the best available price for stocks they were trading for their customers, according to people who have been briefed on the inquiry.

At issue is the way the companies executed trades of Nasdaq-listed securities when the markets opened in the morning, a period of intense trading activity resulting from the backlog of orders since the market's close the previous day.

After examining trading data from the last four years, the investigation found evidence that trades were often processed in ways that favored the firms over their clients, these people said.

Securing the best price is one of the industry's critical obligations to investors. If the investigators' suspicions are confirmed, these practices are not likely to add up to significant costs for individual investors - the difference would be pennies a share traded - but in total they could represent substantial amounts of money for the brokers.

More important, the investigation opens another possible conflict of interest involving the big firms on Wall Street. In the last few years, the financial industry has been jolted by a series of scandals over practices that rewarded company insiders at the expense of ordinary investors.

more...

[UpInArms]

22. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:18 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -1.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Steady action in the futures market this morning as the futures have been holding close to fair value with no meaningful interest from either buyers or sellers... A weakening dollar is being cited for the cautious tone, but the truth is that the cautious tone is simply a case of there being a sense that some profit taking is in order following the market's big run of late (S&P +6.4% in past two weeks)

8:48AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5.

8:36AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Still a mixed tone in the futures market that reflects a lack of buying and selling interest... Accordingly, look for the same mentality to take root with respect to the cash market when trading begins.

8:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Not much conviction in the futures market, which is setting the stage for a relatively flat and mixed beginning for the cash market... Oil prices are down, but an underlying sense that some profit taking may occur in the early-going following last week's strong gains is acting as a limiting factor

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. A breakout above June's high crossing at 1532.50 would open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 1563 later this year. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1497.35 would signal that a double top with June's high has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 2.50 pts. at 1528 as of 5:48 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and is rising, which signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of monthly fib resistance crossing at 1170.60 is the next upside target. Closes below broken resistance crossing at 1146.50 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was down 2.90 pts. at 1164.80 as of 5:50 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

24. Holy sh*t! Maybe I'm an alarmist, but this is a must read!

Fahrenheit Gold & Oil Carving up the Spoils of Iraq

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ridley/ridley110804.html

Well it's official. Bush is in for another four years and the neo-conservative agenda will move forward as planned. For investors, we can look forward to a continued bullish run with gold, and very likely a huge spike in oil prices due to another Mid East crisis.

The big prize for the Bush administration though will be securing the Iraqi oil fields and putting these prized assets into the hands of friendly U.S. oil corporations. The big dogs of the corporate world stand to clean up but so will the common investor who can read the writing on the wall. Today I will outline how the agenda will play out in Iraq over the next four years and how you can protect your assets and make significant profits in the process.

In my last article, I mentioned that in February of 2003 while Colin Powell was trying to drum up international support for invading Iraq, a secret government document was being formed which would outline plans to privatize Iraq's oil sector and the rest of the country's economy. At that time BBC investigative journalist Greg Palast obtained a copy of that report which originated from inside the State Department.

Carving up the spoils from the Iraq war were initiated back in the spring of 2001 when the Cheney Task Force on Energy met with the leaders of the corporate oil world. Inside the meeting room the executives passed around a map of Iraq but unlike most maps we have seen, this one was devoid of cities, towns, or regions. This map detailed Iraq's oil fields.

From Palast's article Adventure Capitalism - The Hidden 2001 Plan to Carve-up Iraq, Palast stated "The Economy Plan goes boldly where no invasion plan has gone before: the complete rewrite, it says, of a conquered state's policies, laws and regulations. And when it comes to oil, the Plan leaves nothing to chance-or to the Iraqis. Beginning on page 73, the secret drafters emphasized that Iraq would have to "privatize" (i.e., sell off) its "oil and supporting industries." The Plan makes it clear that-even if we didn't go in for the oil-we certainly won't leave without it."

"If the Economy Plan reads like a Christmas wish list drafted by U.S. corporate lobbyists, that's because it was."

more...

[shrike]

26. Go to the Harpers magazine website and look for "Baghdad

Year Zero," by Naomi Klein. Gives a very good account of how we're gutting Iraq. America, the pirate ship.

[54anickel]

28. Yes, I have that one bookmarked. I may have even posted it here

in the past couple of weeks.

Here's the link again.


http://www.harpers.org/BaghdadYearZero.html

[54anickel]

25. Dollar expected to fall amid China's rumoured selling

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/257979a6-30f4-11d9-a595-00000e2511c8.html

The dollar could slide still further, in spite of hitting an all-time low against the euro last week in the wake of George W. Bush's re-election, currency traders have said.


The dollar sell-off has resumed amid fears among traders that Mr Bush's victory will bring four more years of widening US budget and current account deficits, heightened geopolitical risks and a policy of "benign neglect" of the dollar.

Many currency traders were taken aback on Friday when the greenback fell in spite of bullish data showing the US economy created 337,000 jobs in October.

"If this can't cause the dollar to strengthen you have to tell me what will. This is a big green light to sell the dollar," said David Bloom, currency analyst at HSBC, as the greenback fell to a nine-year low in trade-weighted terms.

The dollar's fall comes as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise US interest rates by a quarter point to 2 per cent when it meets on Wednesday and to signal that it will continue with a measured pace of rate increases.

more...

[54anickel]

27. Bush must redeem his name in world's eyes

Linked at 321gold. My, seems you could subtitute the references to Afghanistan for USoA.

http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/Columnists/Toronto/Eric_Margolis/2004/11/07/704234.html

snip>

Rigged elections

The Afghan vote, hailed by the White House and U.S. media as "Afghanistan's first-ever elections," was, in reality, a deja vu of rigged elections held in 1986 and 1987 by the Soviet occupiers of Afghanistan.

Those votes "elected" the Kremlin's puppet ruler, Najibullah. Karzai was "elected" in identical fashion: Some real opposition parties were declared "terrorists" and banned, some ballots were reportedly rigged, and warlords massively bribed.

Afghanistan's election is to be the model for U.S.-run elections in Iraq next January. While the White House will proclaim the Iraqi vote a victory for democracy, the exercise will rightly be seen in Iraq, and across the Mideast, as a fraud. The winner is already known: Iraq's U.S.-installed figurehead ruler, Iyad Allawi.

Hated minorities

Phony elections that exclude from power Iraq's and Afghanistan's main ethnic or religious groups, that install hated minorities or stooges, and from which nationalist parties opposed to foreign occupation are banned, guarantee continued violence and instability.

more...

[UpInArms]

29. 9:45 EST numbers (spiking up to 10,400!)

Dow 10,403.80 +16.26 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,044.13 +5.19 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,166.68 +0.51 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.215% +0.029

NYSE Volume 97,234,000
Nasdaq Volume 150,811,000

lovely spike this morning - was down 15+ points and now going to "shoot the moon"

:shrug:

[54anickel]

30. Cripes, look at that volume for so early in the day! Especially the NAS!!

[UpInArms]

31. adding blather

9:45AM: Equity market starts on a lackluster note following nine days of gains for the S&P 500... Traders have taken profits from the broader market's move to new yearly highs last week, particularly as the Fed will be meeting on Wednesday... Expectations are nearly 100% the FOMC will raise by 25 basis points, to 2.0%, but now the market anticipates an additional rate hike in December... The 337K gain in October nonfarm payrolls has heightened those expectations, and served as a slight impediment to buying this morning...

Despite these overhangs, selling pressure has not been broad-based or pronounced, and concentrated instead in the financial and energy shares...

[UpInArms]

32. Symbol Restates Results Due to Inventory Miscounts

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20041108-000323-0823

HOLTSVILLE, N.Y. (Dow Jones)--Symbol Technologies Inc. (SBL) revised downward its reported nine-month revenue and earnings per share after discovering two distributors underreported inventory levels at the end of the third quarter.

As a result, Symbol will file its third-quarter Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission two weeks after the original Nov. 9 deadline and may have to refile previous quarterly reports from 2004.

In a press release Monday, the company said its actual revenue for the nine months ended Sept. 30 is $1.28 billion, not $1.3 billion, as was previously reported.

<snip>

The revision came after a Symbol distributor underreported its inventory levels, causing the company to book $3.3 million in extraneous sales. Symbol said the mistake affected only the third quarter.

A separate inaccurate inventory account at a Symbol-owned distributor caused nine-month revenue to be overstated by $10 million. Symbol said most of that occurred in the third quarter, but first- and second-quarter figures may need to be restated.

...more at link...

[54anickel]

33. 10:35 - You'll put an eye out on those charts

I've got to run for a few hours. :hi:

Dow 10,369.26 -18.28 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,038.81 -0.13 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,163.39 -2.78 (-0.24%)
10-yr Bond 4.204% +0.018
30-yr Bond 4.918% +0.009
NYSE Volume 318,774,000
Nasdaq Volume 412,747,000

10:30AM: Lower crude oil prices ($49.00/bbl, -$0.61) not enough to sustain buying interest as stocks are finding difficulties catching a bid... Six out of the last nine days oil is lower as worries ease about heightened winter demand... Speaking of, oil well services companies are getting hit after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the sector citing the current cycle is in "suspended animation.".. Companies on the downside after being downgraded include S&P 500 constituents BHI, BJS, NE, and RDC... Others trading lower are SII, GSF, FTI, ESV and TDW.XOI -1.7, NYSE Adv/Dec 1166/1706, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1253/1401
10:00AM: Markets remain mixed in the early going... Pharmaceuticals appear to be a focal point again this week following news that New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer launched an investigation into Pfizer (PFE 28.27 -0.52) and its connection with improperly promoting drugs for uses other than those approved by the FDA... That stock alone is shaving 8 points off the Dow...NYSE Adv/Dec 1055/1546, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1389/1089

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1162 (37%) 1279 (44%)
Declines 1735 (56%) 1402 (49%)
Unchanged 192 (6%) 168 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 95 (39%) 189 (54%)
Down Vol* 139 (58%) 153 (43%)
Unch. Vol* 5 (2%) 6 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 104 88
New Lo's 4 11

[ozymandius]

34. 10:42 figures

Dow 10,370.89 -16.65 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,038.89 -0.05 (-0.00%)
S&P 500 1,163.13 -3.04 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.209% +0.023
NYSE Volume 341,835,000
Nasdaq Volume 443,664,000

[ozymandius]

35. blather - shorts taking their due

Stocks Move Lower on Profit Taking

NEW YORK - Profit taking after Wall Street's nine-session rally pushed stocks slightly lower Monday even as oil prices continued their downward trend.

With the major indexes up between 6 percent and 7 percent since Oct. 25, analysts said a selloff was expected, though the market's earnings and economic fundamentals remained sound. Some investors were hedging against an anticipated hike in benchmark interest rates following Wednesday's Federal Reserve (news - web sites) meeting.

Crude futures tumbled as investors, reassured by last week's oil inventory figures, grew more confident that the United States would have enough heating oil for the winter. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $49.05, down 56 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

-cut-

A number of stocks were pressured by fresh disclosures of government investigations. According to media reports, the Securities and Exchange Commission (news - web sites) is probing trading practices at brokerages including Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co. and Charles Schwab Corp., believing that the brokerages processed trades to benefit themselves rather than their clients. Morgan Stanley dropped $1.29 to $52.46, Merrill Lynch lost 98 cents at $55.44 and Schwab slipped 23 cents to $9.49.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=8&u=/ap/20041108/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street&sid=95609876

[UpInArms]

36. H&R Block a part of the Enron fraud in fleecing America

NASD Charges H&R Block Financial Advisors With Fraud in Sale of Enron Bonds to Hundreds of Customers
Monday November 8, 11:04 am ET
Bond Sales Just Before Enron Collapse Cost Customers Millions of Dollars

WASHINGTON, Nov. 8 /PRNewswire/ -- NASD has charged H&R Block Financial Advisors, Inc., with fraud in the sale of millions of dollars worth of Enron Corporation bonds after Enron's finances, and its bond ratings, had begun to collapse.

NASD charged that during the five-week period preceding the Enron bankruptcy filing -- while Enron's financial crisis was unfolding publicly and official investigations were being launched -- H&R Block's brokers made affirmative misrepresentations to customers, touted the supposed benefits of the Enron bonds, and failed to disclose the serious and significant risks associated with an investment in the bonds. From October 29, 2001 through November 27, 2001, approximately 200 H&R Block brokers recommended and sold over $16 million worth of Enron bonds to more than 800 customers in approximately 40 states. As an incentive, H&R Block paid its brokers sales credits significantly higher than those typically paid for similar bonds. NASD charged that H&R Block received profits of over $500,000.

When Enron declared bankruptcy on December 2, 2001, the value of those bonds plummeted to a fraction of the original investment, causing most H&R Block customers who invested in the bonds to lose substantially all of their investment.

"This is an especially troubling case where hundreds of unsuspecting individual investors innocently relied on their H&R Block brokers to give fair and honest advice concerning investments," said NASD Vice Chairman Mary L. Schapiro. "But H&R Block brokers betrayed that trust by selling these investors highly risky Enron bonds, using misleading information at a time when the brokers knew, or should have known, of the company's serious financial problems -- problems which foreshadowed the collapse of the firm. That H&R Block gave the brokers extra financial incentives to sell these troubled bonds is simply intolerable behavior."

NASD charged that H&R Block's representatives failed to disclose risks of investing in the bonds, including: that Enron had recently experienced a number of credit rating downgrades by major rating agencies; that the bonds were on negative credit watch for additional potential downgrades; that Enron had restated its financials for the past four years by over $552 million for accounting errors; that Enron had disclosed in a public filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that its financial problems were threatening its ability to continue as a going business concern; that the SEC was conducting an investigation into investments associated with partnerships related to the company, and that H&R Block itself had removed another Enron security from the firm's approved list because of concerns about, among other things, the company's debt ratings and the SEC investigation.

...more...

[abelenkpe]

37. democrats to blame for failing economy

Who woulda guessed?

Consumer Confidence Index Falls


By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Consumer confidence in the days following the presidential election fell from the levels of early October, led by higher economic worries among Democrats and some independents.

-snip-

The drop was led by increased fears among Democrats and some political independents after the re-election of President Bush (news - web sites), a Republican.

"I'm more worried about the economy," said Susan Norvell, a Democrat from Salisbury, N.C. "We would have been in better shape if Senator (John) Kerry had won. We've had a lot of closings in our area. A lot of jobs have been lost — some of it to outsourcing. People have to be retrained and that takes time."


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=509&ncid=749&e=6&u=/ap/20041108/ap_on_bi_ge/ap_consumer_confidence

[llmart]

44. Them damn Democrats.......

they're just not buying into the bs put out by the corporate owned media now are they? Well, this Democrat is going to continue to not help the economy one iota.

[UpInArms]

38. 12:14 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,377.22 -10.32 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,037.67 -1.27 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,164.02 -2.15 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.216% +0.030

NYSE Volume 625,475,000
Nasdaq Volume 780,093,000

12:00PM: Stocks have been on the defensive most of the morning as traders have adopted a cautious attitude in light of the indices' recent winning streak... The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have all moved substantially higher (5.0-6.6%) over the past two weeks, and this has led to a moment of pause for investors... Earnings reports from tech bellwethers Cisco Systems (CSCO 19.84 -0.13) and Dell (DELL 37.33 -0.16) on Tuesday and Thursday after the close have also contributed to the hesitation on the part of buyers...

Additionally, the likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike in December, on top of one in November (taking place this Wednesday), has led to some natural profit-taking today... Only a few sectors - those being airline, wholesale distributor, and select pockets of tech (internet) - have found buying interest... The rest of the market has headed slightly lower, pressured by large losses in financial and energy... Reports have confirmed Eliot Spitzer has launched investigations into several insurance companies (AIG, CELL, PNC, and BRKA) for sales of questionable financial products that helped customers improperly smooth their earnings statements...

Brokerage firms have also been hit by a SEC investigation on suspicion that they failed to secure the best available price for stocks they were trading for their customers... As for energy, that area has dropped on a slight dip in the price of crude oil, to $49.37/bbl, as worries about winter demand have eased...

[UpInArms]

40. 2:02 numbers and blather

Dow 10,394.55 +7.01 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,038.12 -0.82 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,165.13 -1.04 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.212% +0.026

NYSE Volume 874,275,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,074,413,000

2:00 ET While most equities remain on the defensive with sector participation primarily to the downside, some areas are showing signs of strength after various analyst upgrades... Drug wholesalers Cardinal Health (CAH +2.66%), McKesson (MCK +1.39%) and AmerisourceBergen (ABC +1.27%) have been upgraded by Robert W. Baird to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation, favorable pricing trends, fee-for-service relationships with drug makers and expectations that the industry will stabilize in 2005... Upgrades from Smith Barney on S&P 500 constituent Solectron (SLR +2.30%) and Plexus (PLXS +2.74%) have shares of several electronic manufacturing services firms fighting off selling pressure as well... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1185/2081. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1309/1690.

1:30 ET Equity market continues to sport modest losses as sellers remain an active bunch... The main reason for the losses continues to be profit-taking following the major indices' impressive run over the past two weeks... The dollar's plunge to its lowest levels ever against the euro has been cited as an additional reason, but in Briefing.com's opinion, it has not lessened the appeal of stocks... A weak dollar is good for multinational companies, as it raises exports and increases profits... In response to the drop in the greenback, gold rallied to 16-year highs in early trading, although it is trading modestly lower now... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1138/2114. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1281/1701.

[loudsue]

39. Looks like a small drop in the Dow going on.....Darn those Democrats, ey?

How did this get onto the second page??

:hi: Thanks, Marketeers! Just checking in again to see if the other shoe is dropping yet! :hi:

:kick::kick::kick:

[UpInArms]

41. Americans are taking on greater burdens

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9D8ED0F0%2DCFEA%2D4852%2D8FAC%2DD14B9861F518%7D&siteid=mktw

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (CBS.MW) -- Assuming economic and financial risk has long been an integral part of most people's lives. If President Bush gets his way, people will soon have to take on even more risk.

<snip>

Nowadays, home prices are rising sharply, but incomes are not, since the overall rate of inflation has slowed. With the ratio of home prices to incomes now at a record, more and more people have turned to adjustable rate mortgages in order to be able to buy a home. Some are even taking out interest-only loans.

This obviously transfers the risk from the lender to the borrower. And in a climate like the current one, where the Federal Reserve is raising short-term rates, the risk may be greater than some homeowners think. See related story on Fed.

Job security is not what it used to be, either. Most new jobs created these days are either temporary or part-time -- not the full-time permanent jobs that were de rigueur. This means they pay less and usually carry no fringe benefits like health care or a pension.

<snip>

Getting back to jobs, judging by the disparity between the payroll figures and those emanating from the household survey, more and more people these days appear to be working for themselves. Clearly, incomes from these kinds of jobs are far from guaranteed.

...more...

[UpInArms]

45. 3:09 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,389.97 +2.43 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,039.18 +0.24 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,164.81 -1.36 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.221% +0.035

NYSE Volume 1,070,706,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,284,398,000

3:05 ET Market pares its losses but continues to trade near the unchanged mark... Rarely does an analyst reiteration light a fire under a stock in a down market... But when J.P. Morgan Securities reiterated its "overweight" rating on etailer eBay (EBAY 103.67, +3.99), set a $130 price target, and raised its FY05 EPS estimate to $1.66 (from $1.63), shares soared... JP Morgan believes the firm's PayPal online payment service has "under appreciated" potential... eBay shares are up 11% over the last 30 days and up 38% for the year... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1193/2111. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1349/1717.

2:30 ET The market improves its stance as the Dow stages a slight recovery effort and the Nasdaq lifts off its lows, fighting to break out of the 2033-2044 range... Traders have expressed more interest in the internet, steel, health care distribution and retail/apparel areas, but remain reluctant in regards to casino/gaming stocks and most equities tied directly to oil... December crude futures ($49.03/bbl, -$0.58) are still finding resistance at the $50 level, as analysts remain confident that the Energy Department will report another increase in commercially available oil inventories when it releases weekly data on Wednesday... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1225/2062. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1357/1685.

[UpInArms]

46. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,391.31 +3.77 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,039.25 +0.31 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 1,164.89 -1.28 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.215% +0.029

NYSE Volume 1,358,838,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,611,170,000

Close: It was a listless day of trading for the stock market as volumes were moderate, breadth figures were mildly negative, and catalysts for upside were few and far between... The S&P 500 recently posted 9 straight days of gains (and a new high for the year in the process), and thus that ignited talk of overbought technical conditions... While the major indices did not sell off during any part of the day (the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P were confined to a range of 44, 11, and 5 points, respectively), they also never exhibited positive momentum...

Sector movement was to the downside with the exception of telecom service, retail, homebuilding, and transportation... Cisco Systems (CSCO 19.97 unch) and Dell Inc's (DELL 37.68 +0.19) earnings reports Tuesday and Thursday after the close led to some of the caution, as did the Fed's meeting on Wednesday... While it is expected the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, to 2.00%, it is still 'new' that the Fed will tighten again in December... Fed funds futures priced in a greater likelihood following Friday's strong October employment report... In today's action, energy, health care, and financial were the largest laggards...

Energy dropped after a 1% drop in the price of crude oil (to $49.09/bbl), health care declined on news Pfizer (PFE 28.40 -0.39) will likely issue a 'black box warning' (the strongest warning available for prescription drugs) to its pain killer Bextra, and financial fell on several investigations... The SEC and NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer each launched investigations into sales by insurance companies that helped customers improperly smooth their earnings statements...

[54anickel]

47. Man the US$ chart looks like a rollercoaster today.

Up from the open though.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 84.06 Change +0.08 (+0.10%)

Settle 84.09 Settle Time 15:31

Open 83.81 Previous Close 84.01

High 84.17 Low 83.76

Volume 1,738

[UpInArms]

50. interesting note - South African Reserve Bankis buying dollars

http://allafrica.com/stories/200411081238.html

SA goes on strong purchasing drive, snapping up close on $1bn last month

THE Reserve Bank stepped up its dollar purchases sharply last month, buying almost $1bn in the foreign exchange market and boosting gross reserves to a record $13bn.

Stronger forex reserve levels are positive for the rand, because they promote stability in the currency and also improve the outlook for SA's international credit ratings.

Economists said the Bank was likely to accelerate forex purchases in coming months if a weaker dollar boosted the rand further.

The Bank also appears unfazed by the costs of accumulating forex reserves, with deputy governor Ian Plenderleith saying last week that cost was not a constraining factor in increasing reserves.

According to Bank figures released on Friday, it appears the central bank took advantage of the rand's strength last month to build its forex reserve levels more aggressively than in previous months.

The Bank bought $590m worth of forex in the market in October and provided $372m worth of financing for repayment of a national treasury euro-denominated loan.

...more...

[54anickel]

52. Hmm, not sure what it means - but definitely a new player in town. n/t

[54anickel]

48. Same bubble, new indicator

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

There’s something about a roaring stock market that gets humans so excited that we can't help but draw up plans to build taller buildings. Maybe it’s because businesses is so good. And business is good because we are so smart. And since we are smart today, and will be even smarter tomorrow, business will get better and better. Surely such a great business not only deserves its own skyscraper, it deserves one that is the World’s Tallest. Unfortunately, about the time everyone agrees that building the World’s Tallest Building is a good idea, the stock market crashes.

The Empire State Building provides a fine example of the Skyscraper Indicator. The 1929 stock market crashed about the time plans for the building were finalized. But the Empire State Building wasn’t the only signal that the top was near. In the late 1920’s a bevy of skyscrapers were vying to be the World’s Tallest, including the Chrysler Building and Forty Wall Street. In his book The Trouble with Prosperity James Grant shares the history of Forty Wall Street, a building that broke ground in the Roaring Twenties, but didn’t reach full occupancy until 14 years after completion. The building needed to generate $3.9 million a year to break even, but the Forty Wall Street would not earn that amount until 1952.

Basil Chapman evidently spent some time researching the Skyscraper Indicator, which is nice because not everyone has time for actual research because they’re off being fitted for a new suit so as to comply with an arbitrary spousal prohibition against wearing clothes bought during the Reagan administration, even though the look of a man’s suit is “timeless” and one button on the jacket still works. Mr. Chapman’s examples include the Chicago’s Home Insurance Building in 1885, the Reliance Building in 1894, and New York’s Flatiron Building in 1902. And don’t forget that the Sears Tower and the World Trade Center ushered in the worst of the 1970s. Prior to the 2000 market crash, plans were laid to construct Europe’s tallest building in the U.K. Upon further review, the scope of that project has been dramatically downsized.

Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner remind us that sticking a 7-story video screen on the side of a building can be just as ostentatious as building the World Tallest Skyscraper, and was just as good an indicator. The Nasdaq's $37 million video display was unveiled just a few months before the Nasdaq crash. Niederhoffer and Kenner doubt the value of skyscrapers generally, finding that the stocks of companies associated with them typically under perform the market. Their results show that in the cumulative one-year, two-year and three-year periods after completion of the buildings, the stocks performed 9, 19 and 22 percentage points worse, respectively, than the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Emerging market investors should note that the latest incarnations of the World’s Tallest Buildings are in the works in China and India.

Last summer, ground was broken on New York’s Freedom Tower, which is set to be the World’s Tallest, at least for a while. Now, a person of the bullish persuasion might call Freedom Tower an exception to the Skyscraper Indicator since our stock market has already crashed. Maybe.

But what about the other bubbles? What, for example, might signal the top of the mortgage finance/housing bubble, other than the fact that every waiter, musician, truck driver and scientist have quit their jobs to become either mortgage bankers or realtors?

more...

[54anickel]

51. Treasuries drop, Fed worries outweigh strong sale

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6747981

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices fell on Monday despite a solid three-year note auction as the bearish tide that followed last week's robust jobs report continued to sweep the market lower.

snip>

Not only did the U.S. employment data cement expectations for another quarter percentage point rate hike this week, it also boosted the chances for another tightening in December.

Traders said worries about just what the Fed's statement on Wednesday might bring largely overshadowed a surprisingly strong auction of $22 billion in three-year notes.

snip>

Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up a hefty $11.55 billion, or 53 percent, of the issue, well above August's 36 percent share, which should please traders. Primary dealers took $9.96 billion of the sale.

snip>

"The three-year was a great auction ... but it just doesn't matter that much to the market," said Andrew Brenner, head of fixed-income at Investec U.S. "The next key piece of information really is how the Fed phrases the statement (on the U.S. economy it habitually makes after policy meetings)."

snip>

But at the very least, good demand for three-year debt suggested the market would not have much trouble absorbing the remainder of the week's $51 billion Treasury refunding.

[54anickel]

53. Marveling At Mania Like Tendencies

http://www.fallstreet.com/nov804.php

Last week Mary Meeker said that an internet boom is underway, Harry Dent received more coverage on his latest ‘I am a superbull’ book, Joe Battipaglia quotes were picked up by newsgroups to help explain the aligning equity stars, and Al Goldman said the markets will trade higher through the end of the year. If a few more geniuses make fun of Buffett’s latest blemish (he should have bought Google!) the mania will be back in full swing.


Altria Chairman and CEO, Louis C. Camilleri, said in a presentation at an annual investors' conference in New York last week that the board of directors was planning to break the company up. It was reported that Camilleri’s comments propelled MO shares up by more than 8% last Thursday. What wasn’t mentioned is that Camilleri expressed similar sentiments at the same conference last year to little fanfare...

Whether or not the lawsuit saddled Altria is worth more on the cutting board than it is whole is not the issue. Rather, the matter at hand is whether or not last weeks post-election action in the markets marked the reemergence of the mania or short term/unsustainable relief rally. Before trying to answer this question it is worth pointing out that Altria was only one of many examples of post-election euphoria in the marketplace

The Break Outs Arrive, But Will The Fundamentals Follow?

Last week the International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS said that sales for of 71 retailers rose 4.0% in October, and RetailMetrics said that same store sales increased by 3.8% in October. Both of these tallies were higher than expected, and by the time Friday’s better than expected jobs report arrived the S&P Retail Index was firmly trading in ‘new highs’ territory.



more...