(PINR)Turkish-Russian Relations: Implications for Eurasia's Geopolitics

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com
[e-mail]
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09 February 2005
Today's analyst, Dr. Bulent Aras, is with the Department of International Relations at Fatih University in Istanbul.

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Turkish-Russian Relations: Implications for Eurasia's Geopolitics
Drafted By: Dr. Bulent Aras
http://www.pinr.com

As a result of its geography, Turkey maintains a multi-dimensional and dynamic foreign policy. Turkish foreign policymakers are carefully analyzing their foreign policy options in light of the 9/11 attacks and the war in Iraq. Within this set of complex links, Turkish-Russian relations appear rather perplexing. Historically, there have been many wars between these two states up until the end of WWI. Both countries have imperial legacies and have experienced a post-imperial traumatic loneliness. Great imperial legacies and the feelings of isolation after the collapse of the previous empires are important factors that shape the national memory of these countries.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Turkey in December of last year, Turkey's prime minister paid a one day official visit to Russia on January 10, 2005. It is relevant to analyze current factors that determine the relations between these two states. Domestic politics in Russia is often the result of competing views of Westerners, anti-Westerners, Eurasianists, ultra-nationalists and nostalgic communists. Russian foreign policy is generally determined along the line of domestic political preferences. There is a symbolic pendulum in Russian foreign policy that vacillates between Europe and Asia depending on the political balances currently at play. Russian foreign policy is today more critical of the West and follows a more Eurasian-oriented path.
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Issues at Stake

More specifically, the future of Turkish-Russian relations will be a product of bilateral, regional and international developments. High-level mutual visits in the recent period underline a number of important issues between the two states. Although observers seem to have an optimistic perception of the relations both in Moscow and Ankara, there are issues of contention between the two states.
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Toward a New Geopolitics

Russia has a regional profile and is sensitive about losing its influence in ex-Soviet territories. Since 1991, Turkey has emerged as a significant regional player, pursuing a special relationship with the E.U. and paying serious attention to building good relations in the Caucasus and Central Asia. How closer Turkish-Russian relations will be interpreted in Brussels and Washington is another important question.
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Conclusion

By looking at the current developments, it can be concluded that Turkish-Russian relations will improve in the political, economic and security realms. However, the relations are not free from a number of serious problems that could threaten to derail these growing ties; both countries have converging and conflicting interests in neighboring regions, and this status makes Turkish-Russian relations promising yet difficult. Turkey and Russia are two influential actors in the Eurasian geopolitics and their relations have implications for the whole Eurasian region. Because of this, internal and external players in Eurasian geopolitical gambling will keep an eye on this growing relationship.
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complete report avaialbale at http://www.pinr.com

Report Drafted By:
Dr. Bulent Aras
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The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of [e-mail]. All comments should be directed to [e-mail].

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