ASPO Newsletter #52: Reflections on Middle East Oil Reserves

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To really get the skinny on Oil reserves country by country look at the ASPO newsletters past and present each having a focus on relevant issues and listing the "known" reserves and breakdown energy situations country by country. Invaluable.


ASPO: Further Reflections on Middle East Reserves

by C.J.Campbell

Undoubtedly, the most important question to try to resolve in modelling future world oil production is the true size of Middle East reserves. It is obvious that the official reports of remaining reserves are grossly unreliable, as even the industry databases can hardly do other than report what they are officially told. But the historical record may have something to tell us.

Kuwait reported reserves of 65 Gb in 1980, falling to 64 Gb by 1984 in the absence of new discovery, at which point it had produced a total of 21.5 Gb, indicating that the total discovery was 85.5 Gb. The bulk lay in the Burgan Field, found in 1938, with 60 Gb, whose reserves were well known to the foreign industry. Next in size were Raudhatain (1955) with 9 Gb; Sabriya (1957) with 5.5 Gb; Minagish (1959) with 3.5 Gb; Umm Gudair (1962) with 3 Gb; Ratga (1977) with 1 Gb and several smaller fields. But it is entirely possible that these estimates were based on fairly conservative assumptions, so it might be reasonable to round the estimate up to, say, 90 Gb.

In 1985, Kuwait increased its reported Reserves from 64 Gb to 90 Gb, being probably influenced in doing so by new OPEC rules that set production quota partly on reserves. No doubt the other OPEC countries reflected on what their response should be. They were finally goaded into action when Kuwait announced a further increase to 92 Gb in 1987, when several of them evidently decided to simply match Kuwait's number to secure a comparable production quota. In 1988 Abu Dhabi reported 92 Gb to exactly match Kuwait, (up from 31 Gb); Iran went for one better at 93 Gb (up from 49 Gb), while Saddam Hussein, not to be outdone, reported a rounded 100 Gb (up from 47 Gb). It is also worth noting in passing that about 2 Gb of Kuwaits reserves went up in smoke in the First Gulf War.

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"ASPO"

NEWSLETTER No. 52 - APRIL 2005

ASPO is a network of scientists, affiliated with European institutions and universities, having an interest in determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource constraints.

The following countries are represented: Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

Missions:

1. To evaluate the world’s endowment and definition of oil and gas;
2. To study depletion, taking due account of economics, demand, technology and politics;
1. To raise awareness of the serious consequences for Mankind.

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