Gulf Hurricanes Are Latest Kink in the Oil Chain
By JAD MOUAWAD
Published: August 5, 2005
PETRONIUS OIL PLATFORM, Gulf of Mexico - Standing 60 feet above sea level on this oil platform 130 miles southeast of New Orleans, Rab Bruce pointed to where the huge wave slammed into a tangle of grated steel and multicolor pipes....
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Today, with oil prices hitting records and petroleum producers stretched to the limit to meet greater demand from not just the United States but from China, India and other developing countries as well, oil producers worry that hurricanes are as much a risk to a global shortfall in supplies as pipelines blowing up in Iraq or oil workers going on strike in Venezuela.
And with the margin of error so tight, even a temporary disruption of the deepwater platforms, rigs and sub-sea pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico - a region that pumps one-quarter of American oil production - could create big problems for energy producers and consumers alike.
"It's a new version of the butterfly effect," said Larry Goldstein, the president of PIRA Energy Group, an oil consultancy in New York. "A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico can lead to higher prices around the world. That's how vulnerable oil markets are today to events outside of our control. And it shows how little room there is for errors."
The hurricane season this year has kicked off to its fastest start since 1851, with seven tropical storms, including two major hurricanes, reaching the gulf since June. On Tuesday, meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stepped up their storm warnings and said they now expected an "extremely active season" with up to 21 tropical storms and up to 7 major storms....
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/05/business/05hurricane.html?oref=login