Asia Times: The Iranian nightmare

[Frederik]

By Michael Schwartz

In 1998, neo-conservative theorist Robert Kagan enunciated what would become a foundational belief of Bush administration policy. He asserted, "A successful intervention in Iraq would revolutionize the strategic situation in the Middle East, in ways both tangible and intangible, and all to the benefit of American interests."

Now, over two years after Baghdad fell and the American occupation of Iraq began, Kagan's prediction appears to have been fulfilled - in reverse. The chief beneficiary of the occupation and the chaos it produced has not been the Bush administration, but Iran, the most populous and powerful member of the "axis of evil" and the chief American competitor for dominance in the oil-rich region. As diplomatic historian Gabriel Kolko commented, "By destroying a united Iraq under Hussein ... the US removed the main barrier to Iran's eventual triumph."

(...)

After escaping the Cold War specter of nuclear holocaust, it seems unimaginable that the world would be forced to endure the horror of nuclear war in a regional dispute. However, the record of Bush administration belligerence makes it difficult to imagine America's top leadership giving up the ambition of toppling the Islamic regime in Iran. And yet, given that the conquest of Iraq led the administration unexpectedly down strange Iranian paths, who knows where future Washington plans and dreams are likely to lead - perhaps to destruction, certainly to bitter ironies of every sort.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GH11Ak01.html

[Stand and Fight]

1. The Horror of Nuclear War...

The hellish nightmare has returned. For that matter, did it ever leave?

[Peace Patriot]

2. I'm afraid to read this. But I will...tomorrow.

Asia Times is usually right on.

And you know these Bushnuts haven't read "The Cold and the Dark" (--Carl Sagan's book about what even a limited nuclear exchange will do to our planet).

I pray that the "good CIA" (as opposed to the Bush-purged CIA, now bereft of its WMD monitoring capability) has the overall purpose right now of stopping a Bush-instigated holocaust in the Middle East. I have a feeling that's what their purpose is. There's nothing much the rest of us can do--except ELECTION REFORM NOW!

[Nothing Without Hope]

3. I recommend reading the opening post and other links in this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4252778
Thread title: Three extremely important threads on Iran nukes & the Bush agenda

This will show you what is going on now and who is behind it. It's very, very scary. And, as the first link in that thread shows, the best available intelligence, the NIE on Iran (which was leaked to the Wash Post), shows that Iran is at least 10 years from being able to build a nuclear bomb.

Of course, people like neocon mouthpiece and SwiftBoat Liar book writer Jerome Corsi, are saying that Iran has nukes NOW and we have to invade them to prevent mushroom clouds. The hawk faction of the Israeli government wants has and does want "regime change" in Iran even more than they wanted it in Iraq. And they have huge pull in Washington. And this has been Cheney's agenda all along.

My great fear is that they will engineer an domestic attack like 9/11 and that this will be used as an excuse for invasion, possibly nuclear, of Iran. Indeed, according to an article in the American Conservative, Cheney has made it official policy that if there is a domestic terrorist attack, Iran will be invaded - this in spite of lack of evidence that Iran might be responsible:
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/august2005/020805nukeiran.htm

[Frederik]

6. Thanks

Three important articles there. It is obvious that the perceived "Iranian nuclear threat" is not the reason behind the bellicose attitude towards Iran these days. I think they are trying hard to come up with a justification to bomb, and the nuclear threat is not going to be sufficient after the non-existing WMD in Iraq. That's why the apparent plans to blame Iran for a "9/11 type event" are very chilling.

[Nothing Without Hope]

7. Additional articles are linked to in the replies to that opening post,

especially the later ones. Put together, it makes a pretty complete picture of what we are now facing.

[Robeson]

4. This article offers an excellent analysis....

...and the end is chilling. Its clear that the rulers in Washington are the ones beyond reason. Lets hope that the new geopolitical realities, as outlined in this article, will keep this administration in check, and from unleashing the unthinkable - nuclear war. At least, we can hope...

Thanks for posting...:thumbsup:

[Frederik]

5. I think it was a very good analysis

of the situation, very lucid. It added a few details that I didn't know, such as the extent of Iranian economic involvement in Iraq. Iranians financing an international airport in Najaf, for instance. Also the extent of Chinese involvement in Iran. It is clear that Iran has emerged as the winner of the Iraq war, and that this is untenable for the war hawks. They find themselves in a terrible impasse right now. They can't win against the insurgents in Iraq. There will be no military victory there. There won't be any neo-liberal "freedum n'mocracy" there either. But if they decide to pull out, the Iranians will just take over the place and from that moment they will dominate the region. I can imagine that what Rumsfeld and Cheney are thinking now, is that he only way out of this situation is to "regime change" Iran, which they intended to anyway until the insurgency grew too strong. To quote trickie Dick Nixon: "Let's nuke'em, I don't give a fuck about civilian casualties".

Just how desperate are they? I guess that is the big question.

[On the Road]

8. The Asia Times is Great

I particularly like this paragraph:

The Iraqi resistance, one of the least expected and most powerful social movements of recent times, can lay claim to few positive results. In two years of excruciating (if escalating) fighting, the insurgents have seen their country progressively reduced to an ungovernable jungle of violence, disease and hunger. But maybe, as Solnit suggests, their real achievement lies in what didn't happen. Despite the deepest desires of the Bush administration, to this day Iran remains uninvaded - the horrors of devolving Iraq have, so far, prevented the unleashing of the plagues of war on its neighbor.

[Frederik]

10. And that is undoubtedly true.

"the horrors of devolving Iraq have, so far, prevented the unleashing of the plagues of war on its neighbor"

[emcguffie]

9. Well, it's utterly terrifying. nt

[Gyre]

11. It takes a lunatic to vaporize a village

And we got our psychotic little chimp with his newly-discovered opposable thumb right on that red button. "Don't fuck with us Iran or we'll kill every child on the planet" so sayeth our scum-slurping CIC 'cause "We don't care".

Gyre

[teryang]

12. Great article!

This fear is what is roiling the oil markets.