Ten Things Congress Could Demand from Bush on Iraq :Juan Cole

[jbfam4]

Ten Things Congress Could Demand from Bush on Iraq
http://www.juancole.com/

Personally, I think "US out now" as a simple mantra neglects to consider the full range of possible disasters that could ensue. For one thing, there would be an Iraq civil war. Iraq wasn't having a civil war in 2002. And although you could argue that what is going on now is a subterranean, unconventional civil war, it is not characterized by set piece battles and hundreds of people killed in a single battle, as was true in Lebanon in 1975-76, e.g. People often allege that the US military isn't doing any good in Iraq and there is already a civil war. These people have never actually seen a civil war and do not appreciate the lid the US military is keeping on what could be a volcano.

All it would take would be for Sunni Arab guerrillas to assassinate Grand Ayatollah Sistani. And, boom. If there is a civil war now that kills a million people, with ethnic cleansing and millions of displaced persons, it will be our fault, or at least the fault of the 75% of Americans who supported the war. (Such a scenario is entirely plausible. Look at Afghanistan. It was a similar-sized country with similar ethnic and ideological divisions. One million died 1979-1992, and five million were displaced. Moreover, all this helped get New York and the Pentagon blown up.)

And as I have argued before, an Iraq civil war will likely become a regional war, drawing in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. If a regional guerrilla war breaks out among Kurds, Turks, Shiites and Sunni Arabs, the guerrillas could well apply the technique of oil pipeline sabotage to Iran and Saudi Arabia, just as they do now to the Kirkuk pipeline in Iraq. If 20% of the world's petroleum production were taken off-line by such sabotage, the poor of the world would be badly hurt, and the whole world would risk another Great Depression.

People on the left often don't like it when I bring this scenario up, because they dislike oil; they read it as a variant of the "war for oil" thesis and reject it. But working people, whom we on the left are supposed to be supporting, get to work on buses, and buses burn gasoline. If the bus ticket doubles or triples, people who make $10,000 a year feel it. Moreover, if there is a depression, the janitors and other workers will be the first to be fired. As for the poor of the global South, this scenario would mean they are stuck in dire poverty for an extra generation. Do you know how expensive everything would be for Jamaicans, who import much of what they use and therefore are sensitive to the price of shipping fuel? It would be highly irresponsible to walk away from Iraq and let it fall into a genocidal civil war that left the Oil Gulf in flames.

[Eloriel]

1. Here's the real link

so that people 6 mos from now, or even 6 weeks, can actually find this entry on his blog:

http://www.juancole.com/2005/08/ten-things-congress-could-demand-from.html


(In case anyone needs to know how to find it, it's usually accessed via the hotlink that is at the bottom of the entry, reflecting date and time posted.)

[Briar]

2. So Cole is happy for the collateral damage to go on?

He recommends:

"For as long as the elected Iraqi government wanted it, the US would offer the new Iraqi military and security forces close air support in any firefight they have with guerrilla or other rebellious forces. (I.e. we would replicate our tactics in Afghanistan of providing the air force for the Northern Alliance infantry and cavalry.) I concede that this tactic will get some US Blackhawks shot down from time to time, and won't be painless."

It will be far more painful for ordinary Iraqis. What is euphemistically called air "support" is often lethal to civilians unlucky enough to be in the vicinity. Cole only worries about US Blackhawks being shot down. Apparently the cost to Iraqi civilians, certain to be far greater, doesn't count as far as he is concerned.

[K-W]

4. He thinks civil war would kill more civillians.

Feel free to disagree. But he does care about civillians.

[yurbud]

3. good ideas, anybody in power listening?

Hillbilly Hitler art:



Blog:

[K-W]

5. On Democracy Now describing this right now. EOM