Israel is on the verge of a political earthquake

[Thom Little]

Israeli politics is undergoing its most dramatic changes in 30 years. The realignment of parties and leaders is all the more remarkable because the latest developments - Ariel Sharon's decision to leave the ruling Likud party, the defeat of Shimon Peres as the Labor party's chairman, and Labor's withdrawal from Sharon's grand coalition government - were so unexpected. So it is all the more important to comprehend the significance of these changes for the future of Israel, the region, and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

.......

On the surface, party competition has been between "left" and "right," or "hawks" and "doves." The truth is more complex. Social class and economic issues, overshadowed by the persistence of more existential concerns - physical security and the continued existence of the state - have played a much less important role in Israel than in other societies. Here, the political divide could be defined as "optimists" versus "pessimists." The former, as in Labor, believed that some day a force would emerge among Arabs and Palestinians ready to make peace on a reasonable basis; the latter, as in Likud, were more doubtful.

.......

The subsequent intellectual realignment in Israel has given rise to a new national consensus. It is now generally accepted that, as the left has always insisted, Israel should be ready to withdraw from the West Bank and Gaza Strip and accept a Palestinian state in exchange for real peace. But it is also accepted that, as the right has always maintained, there is no partner ready to make real peace. In this context, Sharon gained two landslide election victories as a hard-liner, but implemented a moderate policy, including a full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

.......

Now that Sharon has decided to walk out and create a new centrist party, he will probably win the next election, which he has called for in February. Peretz's strategy may draw voters from other parties on the left, but Labor will most likely lose centrist voters (and those for whom national security is paramount) to Sharon.


http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=20251

[no_hypocrisy]

1. I would like to see a similar metamorphesis happen here politically.

New political parties with new ideas and less bifurcation.

[bemildred]

2. I don't find this convincing.

It is full of oxymoronic statements like this:

"Paradoxically, all of this will mean both a great deal in principle and perhaps little in practice."

He makes some good points, like this:

"Second, the Labor Party has proven politically bankrupt, with its only conceivable leader being the 82-year-old Shimon Peres and its anachronistic dovish optimism the source of much ridicule."

And some fanciful one's like this:

"Sharon moved the Likud to the center, making it the hegemonic party, while destroying every stereotype about his personality, methods and worldview."

He sure looks like the same old Sharon to me, really old these days.

Still, it's better than a lot of the emotionally wrought stuff we see.