The Iraq Dilemma: Frying Pan or Fire?

[OneBlueSky]

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THE STRATFOR WEEKLY
12 November 2003

by Dr. George Friedman

The Iraq Dilemma: Frying Pan or Fire?

Summary

U.S. President George. W. Bush has hastily convened his war
council to decide strategies for the next phase of operations in
Iraq. What first must be assessed are the nature, intent and
capabilities of the Iraqi guerrilla forces. Imperfect
intelligence about this might force the Bush administration to
implement strategies based on worst-case-scenario assumptions.

Analysis

A war council convened in Washington on Nov. 11, appropriately
the same day as the U.S. Veteran's Day holiday. The war council
clearly was not planned -- the U.S. administrator in Iraq Paul
Bremer was hurriedly recalled to Washington. The White House
meeting included all the major decision makers concerning U.S.
strategic policy, including Colin Powell, Donald Rumsfeld and
Condoleezza Rice. All the players were at the table; President
Bush was dealing the cards.

Clearly, the strategic situation in Iraq was the driving issue.
Major guerrilla activity remains concentrated in the Sunni
triangle, north and west of Baghdad. In that sense, the
guerrilla's position has not improved. However, coinciding with
the advent of Ramadan, the Iraqi guerrillas intensified their
tempo of operations substantially, but not decisively. That is to
say, the guerrilla activity increased, but its strategic
significance did not. The guerrillas are far from capable of
compelling a U.S. retreat from Iraq by force of arms. Indeed,
they are incapable of seizing and holding any territory, as their
allies in Afghanistan are capable.

The military situation is relatively stable and, from a strictly
military standpoint, tolerable. However, the political situation
of the United States is not. There, the inability of the Bush
administration to either forecast the guerrilla war or
demonstrate a war-termination strategy has weakened the
administration, although far from decisively.

EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT

[bemildred]

1. STRATFOR has had their head more or less completely

buried in their ass on Iraq right along. Why should we
pay attention to more of their "we really do know what we
are talking about" bullshit now?