Why Israel is Losing

[bemildred]

By ASHRAF ISMA’IL

Not buying all of it, but he's got an interesting take.

The world is witnessing what could be a critical turning point in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Israel is now engaged in a war that could permanently undermine the efficacy of its much-vaunted military apparatus.

Ironically, there are several reasons for believing that Israel’s destruction of southern Lebanon and southern Beirut will weaken its bargaining position relative to its adversaries, and will strengthen its adversaries’ hands.

First, Israel has no clearly defined tactical or strategic objective, and so the Israeli offensive fails the first test of military logic: there is no way that Israel's actions can improve its position relative to Hamas or Hizballah, much less Syria or Iran.

The logic of power politics also implies that a no-win situation for Israel is a definite loss, because Israel is the stronger party and thus has the most to lose. In an asymmetric war, the stronger party always has the most to lose, in terms of reputation and in terms of its ability to project its will through the instruments of force.

CounterPunch

[partylessinOhio]

1. Oh, sounds like Israel has been "Rummied!"

Israel has no clearly defined tactical or strategic objective

[bemildred]

2. I thought the emphasis on bombing and special forces was Dumbsfeldian.

But yours works too.

[bigdarryl]

8. Israel's troubles

The reason why there having trouble is because they aren't this BAD ASS army as the US media has been saying. there having a lot of trouble with Hazbolla and i think Hazbolla has been training for a long time to fight the state of Israel.

[rodeodance]

3. almost seems like he is talking of the US

[BillZBubb]

6. Similar leadership(?) similar outcomes.

You are correct.

[cali]

4. I agree Israel is losing, but not for the reasons laid

out by the author. That sounded more like wishful thinking than analysis.

[bemildred]

9. Some of it, yeah.

And there is losing as in "pounding sand" and losing as in being conquered. The second is not really in question. What we are faced with is the prospect of having to deal with Arabs more or less as peers (horrors).

[BillZBubb]

5. I think their is a lot to it. Olmert didn't (couldn't?) think.

His stated goals are impossible. Therefore, he cannot win. The elimination of Hezbollah is a pipe dream. Hezbollah will survive, then grow stronger.

The worst thing for Israel could be the loss of their "invincibility" mystique. They have pummeled the Arabs so completely in the past, that by taking heavy casualties now, the Arabs will be emboldened. They can begin planning for a future where they have the numbers overwhelmingly on their side.

Israel, at some point, will declare victory and pull back. The whole world will see it as a strategic defeat. All the while Israel will have made more enemies and gained at most a short respite.

[earthside]

7. Blowing-up Apartment Buildings

Karl Penhaul reporting on Lou Dobbs, showed an apartment building in Tyre that was blown-up by Israeli air-to-ground missiles. Completely a civilian building.

There was the chaos, the anguish ... then afterwards, bunches of young Lebonese vowing their blood and lives to destroy Israel.

Israel is absolutely behaving stupidly. These young men were probably content to watch television, have jobs, go on dates, etc. Now, they are implacable enemies of Israel.

This is what the 'might makes right' philosophy of thugs like Bush and Olmert leads to.

[pretzel4gore]

10. and it seems they're trying to con US!

so much of what the gopigs (and their thuggees) do seems to be directed at the bushbot base, as if they've basically declared war against anyone not onside with them, and content with the noise machine singing praises for their mindlessness, but i think they are wrong. israel is/was the underdog in the ME but painting itself as goliath, versus the arab david, when being goliath will cost it its support in the west, is sheer empty headed madness - and that has been happening. the israelis KNOW their strength is purely a product of US/western funding, and these things depend on israel being considered outnumbered, outgunned and so on over time - now the israeli leadership has pissed off a helluva lotta people....
also, there is anti semitism in the west, it's fairly widespread. and that says fukking around with the lebanese in baldfaced brutishnesss strengthens israel's real enemies....the israelis should run away from bush as fast as they can, but instead, they're hitching themselves to bush's stars

[gula]

11. I have been having nightmares about the end paragraphs ever

since this whole thing started. Knowing that both parties have nukes doesn't help.

"In the end however, Israel's loss of power will make it even more dangerous, because the more threatened the Israelis feel, the more likely they will launch destructive wars against the Palestinians and Israel's other adversaries.

Finally, the same can be said of the U.S., with respect to its loss of global power. Instead of becoming more careful with its use of force, the erosion of America’s global dominance will likely make the U.S. government more aggressive, as it attempts to re-assert its former position relative to its adversaries and competitors."

[bemildred]

12. Well, it is a worry.

There are some simple minded types in the US government who just can't fathom that there is anything that cannot be accomplished by a big enough explosion.