Kinsley: Commission improbable

[kskiska]

What chance Baker's Iraq Study Group coming up with something original? Don't hold your breath

Michael Kinsley

The Baker commission, aka the Iraq Study Group, is expected to report early next month, and is duly bouncing around, holding hearings and all the things that prestigious US commissions do. Appointed by Congress and co-chaired by James Baker, it's hearing from Tony Blair this week.

Ordinarily, a commission like this has two possible purposes: action or inaction. Sometimes a problem is referred to a commission so that it can recommend what everybody knows must be done, but no one has the nerve to propose. The commission can ram this policy down the politicians' allegedly unwilling throats. If it is bipartisan - and what fun is a commission that isn't bipartisan? - the commission also protects both parties against a stab in the back by the other.

On the other hand, sometimes a problem is referred to a commission simply to get it off the table. Action is perceived as necessary, and the creation of a commission can be made to look like action.

So which is the Baker commission? It's got elements of both. Part of the idea, certainly, was to get the politicians over the hump of the election, and give them something to say in the meanwhile. ("We desperately need new ideas and fresh thinking about Iraq, and indeed the entire Middle East. I look forward to the recommendations of the Baker commission and urge them to interpret their mandate widely and boldly.") And part of the idea is to legitimise some currently unpalatable solution. But the Baker commission may be near-unique in that there is no obvious solution waiting to be imposed. People actually hope that the greybeards will come up with something that no one has previously thought of.

Good luck…

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1947121,00.html