Russia Is Not Prepared to Restore the Empire

[CHIMO]

When the Baltic countries entered NATO and the European Union a couple of years ago, many thought it was the end of the centuries-old "red line." Euro-Atlantic organizations had crossed into the former Russian and Soviet empires. Revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine; pro-European enthusiasm in Moldova; the reorientation of Central Asia, especially Uzbekistan, to a more pro-Western stance; Kazakhstan's quick transformation into a regional power: it seemed that Russia had lost its exclusive sphere of influence, and that "geopolitical pluralism" had won out across the former Soviet Union. It seemed that the empire could never again be rebuilt as it was just five years after the 1917 Revolution.

The international system at the start of the 21st century is unstable, however, and what seems irreversible might not prove to be so. If two or three years ago the prospect of Russia once more establishing its "historical" borders seemed unrealistic, today it doesn't pay to be so unequivocal. And it isn't just a matter of an economically strengthened Russia feeling a rush of self-confidence. If external circumstances conspire, Moscow could be drawn into the big game of empire building against its will.

Imagine a scenario which, sadly, is all too probable. The United States ultimately fails in Iraq and is compelled to leave the country in short order, without worrying about the consequences for the region. Revenge and the struggle to divide up the country's resources would make internecine war inevitable. The country would most likely break into three parts: the Kurdish state that already exists de facto; Shiite territory, actually controlled by Tehran; and the Sunni areas, which could well turn into a version of Afghanistan under the Taliban.

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the victors in the Cold War set out zealously to carve up its geopolitical legacy. But they didn't have the strength to digest it. Now a newly strengthened Russia is ready to join the battle for what was lost but has yet to find a new master. It this happens, the development of Russia will proceed further along the same old historical spiral.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2006/11/29/008.html

[AlamoDemoc]

1. This reminds me a joke by a comedian talking about the second amendment (2) - Right to Bear Arms

..and how Americans feel about it. He said that the second (2nd)amendment was established on the basis of militias defending the US territory against the British...But that is no longer the case, because we now are a supper power, and that "The Brits aren't coming no more"

[Igel]

2. No, it isn't. And it shouldn't be.

(My favorite line was "Now a newly strengthened Russia is ready to join the battle for what was lost but has yet to find a new master." Perhaps not all the bits and pieces want a new master.

In any event, if Russia isn't prepared for hegemony now, it'll be less prepared in 20 or 40 years. Their demographic trends are truly, outstandingly, abysmal.

[nealmhughes]

3. Russia once propped Kurdish rebels in the waning days of the Ottoman Empire.

Kurds were also given a degree of autonomy in Azerbijan under the Soviet Union from 23-29.

The USSR/Russian Empire also formented rebellion in both Iraq and Iran during the World Wars.