US President George W. Bush has plainly got Iran in his crosshairs, and the tone of his government's rhetoric is ominously reminiscent of the period before the 2003 invasion of Iraq that has turned out so badly for all concerned. Washington's primary complaints are about Iran's nuclear program and its alleged meddling in Iraq, but much of the "evidence" it presents on both scores appears to be much like the fatally flawed material the Bush administration used to drum up support for toppling Saddam Hussein by force of arms. America has had ample opportunity to negotiate these and other matters with Iran, and some of its most esteemed elder statesmen have stated unequivocally that it should do just that. Instead, the Bush administration has essentially declared that it will not discuss the nuclear issue with the Iranians unless and until they make unilateral concessions.
The situation is not helped by the fact that Iran is currently caught up in a wave of nationalist fervor over its nuclear prowess, but much of that outburst is a direct result of American bullying. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been another obstacle to any toning down of the standoff, but he is at least partly a product of the backlash that resulted when Bush rewarded Mohammad Khatami's conciliatory approach by including his country in the "axis of evil." As in so many other areas of foreign policy, the Bush administration's problems are largely of its own making.
There is room for hope that Bush and Ahmadinejad can be reined in before they start a war. Each saw his allies badly mauled at the polls as 2006 came to a close, and powerful establishment forces in both camps are running out of patience with their respective presidents. There is also the danger, though, that both Bush and Ahmadinejad are banking on a confrontation to shore up their popularity with matching frenzies of flag-waving.
Much of the region is scared of Iran, but its fear of the United States is even stronger. The Iranians have the capacity to cause trouble, but the Americans have acted on their potential by committing grand-scale errors in Iraq and Afghanistan. In less than two years, Bush will retire to Crawford, Texas, and forget about everything except clearing brush on his ranch. The fires he has started in this part of the world can be expected to burn for a generation at least, though, so the last thing it needs is for him to spark another one.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&article_id=79426&categ_id=17