No Trafalgars in the Shatt al-Arab

[bemildred]

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Even the former US ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, joined in the kicking match last Thursday, dismissing what he called Britain's "softly softly approach" and accusing the government of "passivity" and "acquiescence" over the issue. Sadly, Bolton failed to outline what Britain should do to solve the crisis, although he did much to reinforce the widely held perception in the United Kingdom that the Bush administration is filled with people whose grasp of world affairs owes more to John Wayne than, say, John F. Kennedy.

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Iran knows Britain lacks both the will and the capability to use force to resolve this crisis. The days of gunboat diplomacy are history now. British forces are already overstretched in Iraq, not to mention Afghanistan. The British public, though angry at the seizure, sees it as another consequence of the misguided invasion and catastrophic occupation of Iraq. Much as they want to see Iran punished and the crew released, they have no appetite for another military misadventure in the Gulf. The empire won't be striking back; diplomacy is the only option.

By the weekend, Blair's principal strategy, to internationalize the crisis, seemed to have mixed results. Russian opposition ensured the best he could get from the UN Security Council was a watered down statement expressing "grave concern" over the plight of the crew. Despite the fact that the crew was operating under a UN mandate, the statement failed to call for their immediate release, or to deplore Tehran's action.

The reaction of the European Union was more robust, after initial hesitation. This was not surprising, perhaps, given that the EU is Iran's biggest trading partner. More than 40 percent of Iran's imports are from the EU, and Europe is the market for more than 25 percent of Iranian exports. However, by Friday evening, EU foreign ministers, meeting in Germany, threatened "appropriate measures" if the British sailors were not released, though they did not specify what these might be. Bearing in mind the pressure Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is currently under for failing to deliver on the economic promises he made during his campaign, EU sanctions could cause serious problems for Iran.

Daily Star