"An '08 free-for-all" - LA TIMES

[rosesaylavee]

An '08 free-for-all
For the first time in decades, the conventions may pick the candidates.
By Norman Ornstein
July 26, 2007


Gingrich versus gore in 2008. Gore? Gingrich? They are not even running! But the possibility is not nearly as flaky as it sounds.

This election cycle creates a significant chance -- the first in modern memory -- that both parties could string out their presidential nominations until their conventions next summer. And if it's a convention free-for-all, delegates could as easily turn to alternatives as not.

The 2008 presidential election is the first in 80 years with no president or vice president running. It has seen the earliest start for top-tier candidates in history -- most were in and running hard by January. It has a more compressed schedule than ever before: Nearly two-thirds of delegates will be selected between the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 14 and the slew of state primaries on Feb. 5.

....

How long delegates are bound to specific candidates varies from state to state, but few are committed beyond the second ballot. In a multiballot contest, all bets are off. Sooner or later -- mostly sooner -- delegates would be on their own to decide how long to stick with their candidate -- and whether to shift loyalties as directed. Delegates may split all over the lot when it comes to their second choice.

Anything could happen: days of inconclusive balloting; a deal between candidates to break the logjam; a spontaneous shift on the convention floor, perhaps (a la "The West Wing") driven by a barnburner speech; or even a move to draft a new figure who is unsullied by the long campaign. Thus, Newt Gingrich, the Republican most likely to electrify a convention with a red-meat conservative rallying cry. Or Al Gore, whose full-throated populism and call to fix the planet could excite Democrats.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/sunday/commentary/la-oe-ornstein26jul26,0,2961058.story?coll=la-sunday-commentary

:popcorn:

[TwilightGardener]

1. If Repubs really wanted Gingrich, he'd be running already.

Gore is holding out on his own--two different situations. I am assuming that the current lineup on both sides is who we're going to get, but I think Bloomberg will get in. Oddly, no mention of a third-party challenge here. Of course, this is an AEI guy writing this--anything he says is to be taken with caution by Democrats.

[rosesaylavee]

2. What I thought surprising was that the convention

could be up for grabs for the first time in decades. That means that there may be no frontrunner until they are nominated at the convention. If I were a candidate this summer, this would make me very tired but still give me hope if I were Kuchinich or Dodd and others.

[TwilightGardener]

4. I think that scenario (a "brokered" convention?) might happen

for the Repubs, but it won't for the Dems if Hillary continues her stranglehold on first place. Would be cool to see the Repub party go through painful contortions trying to define itself and pick a leader out of the ashes of 8 years of disastrous Chimp rule.

[AndyTiedye]

3. I Hope We Can Do Better Than Our Current Lineup

While any of them would be a huge improvement over the current resident,
I don't see how any of them can win the general election.

They all have very high negatives, and are running almost 20 points behind a "generic Democrat".
And that is before the Mighty Slime Machine goes to work on them.

[TwilightGardener]

5. I think our top two would do pretty well--and Edwards would do OK.

The last debate proved to me that our candidates are in a whole different league than what the Repubs are offering. If they had a strong candidate (not just merely likeable--that worked for GWB, but it won't this time, I suspect) then I'd worry more, but they're truly scraping the bottom of the Presidential-material barrel.

[AndyTiedye]

6. If Debates Mattered AT ALL in the General Election, We'd be Re-Electing Kerry Next Year

I watched the Kerry/Bush** debates. Kerry mopped the floor with Bush**.
Much good it did him.

[wisteria]

7. They did improve his numbers. The diebold machines, questionable punch cards and disenfranchisement

were just impossible to overcome.

They were really exciting debates.