Hillary's Man Problem / Jon Wiener

[Demeter]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jon-wiener/hillarys-man-problem_b_78974.html


A lot of men don't like Hillary. A lot of men say they don't want to vote for Hillary--even Democratic men. The new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll, released Dec. 28, shows that only 19 per cent of Democratic men favor Clinton in upcoming caucuses and primaries - less than one in five. The implications for Hillary are ominous: since she can't expect Republican men to vote for her, how can she win the election?

That poll focused on likely voters in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, but other polls asking a national sample about the November election have come up similar results. A Washington Post-ABC poll in November found that, in a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, men preferred Giuliani 51 to 44. In a CNN poll in October, only 41 per cent of men said Clinton is someone they admire (compared to 57 per cent of women).

Why do so many men dislike Clinton? Is it simply because she's a woman? Susan Carroll, Senior Scholar at the Rutgers University Center for the American Woman and Politics, told me that politics provides a more important explanation than sexism: "Men are more likely than women to identify as Republicans," she explained. "Men are more likely than women to prefer Republican candidates and their policy positions. Men's partisan preferences are the main reason why many of them wouldn't vote for Clinton. Many of the men who say they won't vote for Clinton wouldn't vote for any Democratic candidate, man or woman."

But that doesn't explain the Democratic men who won't vote for Clinton. Some of them disagree with her on the issues, especially her vote for the Iraq war - but for others, the explanation may lie in simple hostility to the idea of any woman as president....Even if some Democratic men won't vote for her in November, Clinton could still get elected if she won enough votes from Republican women. In fact that's what the Clinton campaign is predicting. Mark Penn, a Clinton senior strategist and pollster, told reporters in October that Clinton could win 24 per cent of Republican women...With that gain, Hillary could win the election even if 20 per cent of Democratic men voted Republican, according to DailyKos. However recent Rasmussen polls show Clinton winning only 18 per cent of Republican women, rather than the required 24, while losing 20 per cent of Democratic men. That's not enough Republican women to get Clinton elected.

AND THE TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE...HILLARY TRULY IS UNELECTABLE

[Captain Hilts]

1. But women vote in larger numbers and she has cross-over appeal among women, so tough! nt

[Demeter]

4. Not Large Enough

The statistics on women voters do not offer any comfort.

[Captain Hilts]

6. They don't vote as a bloc, but if a small % of Ind women shift over, the Dem's in.

HRC has crossover appeal with some conservative suburban women. No kidding.

This is why she flips some red states. For the very reasons her positions drive some folks here nuts, is the same reason that some conservative Ind women will vote for her.

For this reason, she would have beaten Guiliani in '00. That's why he dropped out of the race. My firm was polling in NYS at the time. He was a goner and he knew it.

[Demeter]

7. The Democratic Candidate Will Need a SUBSTANTIAL Lead

to counter the fraudulence of the election machinery. That isn't in the cards with Hillary. We can't expect to squeak by in 2008 any more than we could in 2006. It must be an overwhelming fact that even the Supreme Court can't ignore.

[midlife_mo_Jo]

12. I don't know one republican woman who will vote for her

Although I know republican men and women who plan on voting for Obama and Edwards if they ever get the chance in a primary. (I live in a repub county, and was once repub myself. :) ) They hate the war, and hate how Bush has embarrassed us globally.

However, if she gets the nomination, I don't know that any of these men and women are going to vote for her in the general election. They will have to believe that she's going to get us out of this war and restore some honor to the presidency, and I'm not sure that people believe that strongly enough to SWALLOW THEIR PRIDE and switch sides. A few care about the health care issue, but it's not yet resonating "that much" here, and Hillary is not too strong in that department. This is a wealthy county where people think they will always have a good job and health insurance.

[Captain Hilts]

14. Our relations are too self-selecting to be representative.

[Dr.Phool]

2. I'd love to see a woman president.

Just not that particular woman.

A corporate hack is a corporate hack, be it a male or a female.

[babylonsister]

18. Amen, Dr.! nt

[rodeodance]

3. its 2008---and some live in the Dark Ages regarding their mentality toward women.

[Demeter]

5. This Is Not News to Women, You Know

As a daughter of the Women's Movement, I know the nation is still suffering from constipation.

[Evergreen Emerald]

8. that's what they said about NY and she won.

[Demeter]

9. Despite What NYers Think, the Rest of the Country Is NOT Like Them!

For which diversity we give much thanks.

[Evergreen Emerald]

10. so, women, blacks, latinos should never run because the sexist and racist majority

will never vote for them? Ugh. We are one ugly group of people in America.

[Demeter]

11. Didn't Say That, Never Will

[OKNancy]

13. Wonder how many "Democratic" men voted for Kerry?

He voted the same as Clinton, yet most Democratic men went ahead and voted for Kerry, despite his war vote. There is more going on here in my opinion.

LOL - one of the creepiest times I ever spent was a brief stint in the SDS in the late 60's.. a bigger bunch of chauvinist pigs has never existed this side of the Promise Keepers.

I hear tell that times of changed, but it makes one wonder.

[maxanne]

16. times have not changed

not one bit. Allegedly progressive men are some of the biggest sexists around.

That said - my vagina doesn't vote on my behalf. I'm annoyed by the constant inference that by not supporting Clinton I'm a sexist/anti-feminist.

I treat her as an equal - equally lousy to all the male candidates I don't support.

[JPZenger]

15. The Youth Vote

Hillary's rallies attract many older women. Obama's rallies attract younger persons. The older persons will vote anyway. What we need is someone who can motivate younger people to show up at the polls in November.

[yurbud]

17. I won't vote for her not because she's a woman but because of the corporatist DLC stink on her

[MasonJar]

19. It is so hard to imagine that this country would "install" another PUG

at this time. However, we will have to all pull together to make sure our nominee (no matter who) is supported non-stop. The election is just too significant. Polls tell some things but not all (with the probable exception of "non-tampered" exit polls)the pratfalls and enigmatic turnings. I was with some women recently, several of whom were obvious GOPers. I was waxing poetic as usual about the despicable Bushistas. I mentioned something about Edwards and one commented, "That shyster lawyer." Later she seemed okay with voting for Hillary since she is a woman. So the whole picture is distorted and perplexing because of the woman and the black male mix in the brew.