Peak oil and politicians

[robertpaulsen]

Peak oil and politicians
by Kelpie Wilson

In 1956, M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist with Shell Oil, presented a paper to the American Petroleum Institute that predicted US oil production would peak in the early 1970s and then follow a declining curve, now known as Hubbert's curve. But Hubbert almost didn't get to give his paper. He got a call from his bosses at Shell, who asked him to "tone it down." His reply was that there was nothing to tone down. It was just straightforward analysis. He presented the paper, unedited. You can read the whole story here.

Since that time, the oil industry and its political supporters have done everything they can to tone down the message that oil is a finite resource and that we will run out of it some day. Why would they do that? To further the short-sighted, short-term pursuit of profit. In 2004, Shell finally got caught in a lie about the size of its oil reserves. The company had inflated the stated size of its oil reserves to keep stock share prices high because who wants to invest in a company - or an industry - that is going the way of the dinosaurs?

Since 1956, the world economy has proceeded under a sort of oil company spell that has woven the illusion all around us that oil depletion is so far into the future that we don't need to worry about it. That belief was essential to support the aim of an endlessly growing economy.

There have been a few hitches in that strategy. In 1972, just as oil production in the United States reached its all-time peak, a group of computer modelers from MIT released a study called "The Limits to Growth." They predicted a steep decline in natural resources of all kinds. Because reserve numbers for many minerals, including oil, were not accurately known back then, they looked at different scenarios. Some showed us running out of oil before 2000 and some showed the peak occurring toward the middle of the 21st century.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/051708A.shtml

[matt007]

1. The actual "peak" is now

2008-2010 is the actual global "peak"

It doesnt matter if they discover a deposit the size of Mass. in the gulf or any where else. Demand is way more than what is readily accessible.

[matt007]

2. You will NEVER hear a politican address peak oil

[Fovea]

3. I think you will

in 2009, when the economy has tanked to 1929 looking conditions.

I believe we will be forced to nationalize oil, coal, and Nat. Gas.

[robertpaulsen]

6. Maybe in an Obama Administration.

With McCain it would just be a game of Bomb the Latest Scapegoat.

[Fovea]

9. I cannot envision a McSame presidency.

Really.

And I think that as the year progresses to November,
the chances of McSame to be elected will do a fair imitation of
the Hindenburg.

[matt007]

10. I hope so

I hope my pessimism is wrong.

[bananas]

4. Politicians have been talking about peak oil for decades. nt

[yurbud]

7. see related thread on Bush saying this to Arab nations the other day

[robertpaulsen]

5. I concur.

The world has definitely been riding a plateau for the last few years. It's been hard, but it's nothing compared to what riding down a decline will be. Politicians will probably still be in denial then; can't have politics without a scapegoat.

[Baby Snooks]

11. Some say we are already in the depletion cycle...

Mexico was the first country to announce its major reserve was being depleted. Other countries hedge on the subject but Great Britain has already become a net importer despite North Sea production. Indonesia will soon become a net importer as well. Saudi Arabia has announced they will not allow development of remaining reserves to ensure Saudi Arabia has sufficient supplies for itself for at least 100 years. Some would say, based on the number of announcements and admissions the past year that we are already in the depletion cycle.

Some believe all the oil companies are playing russian roulette with regard to existing reserves. We may suddenly just have no oil to speak of. With no real warning. It is going to be a very scary summer as most predict the price per barrel will continue to climb as will the price at the pump. It will probably become a major campaign issue.

Bush addressed it himself the other day and admitted we are facing a world without oil when he warned the Arab countries that they would need to diversify their holdings to ensure their own economic stability.

What is interesting is that not one media outlet in this country ran his comments.

[tama]

8. Worse than politicians

Is the corporate media spreading the propaganda of cornucopian flat earth economists and ridiculing every voice that deviates from their official dogma, the sheeple believing that propaganda - and politicians having no chance but to play the game as the corporate media sets the table of public conscience.

I found PO on the Internet long before I saw first mention (together with obligatory denial) in corporate media.