Three Myths About the Youth Vote

[babylonsister]

Three Myths About the Youth Vote
posted by Michael Connery on 06/09/2008 @ 11:32am



In any conversation about the role of young voters in the political process, there are a number of arguments that - without fail - creep into the discussion. Once these myths enter the debate, any further discussion is usually rendered moot and the majority of participants tend to side with the person propagating those myths and against youth advocates. It's sort of a reverse Godwin's Law for the youth vote. It would almost be funny if it didn't have dire consequences for our movement and the Democratic Party.

So today I'd like to try to dispel some of those myths in the interest of encouraging a more hopeful (and fact-based) discussion during the rest of the month here at Passing Through.

Myth 1 - The youth never turnout. This is false. Young voters will turn out if you ask them, the problem is that the Democratic Party stopped asking a long time ago. Celebrities and media campaigns won't cut it. "Asking" requires real, peer to peer field work - the same type of work that campaigns use to target older voters. In 1992, Rock the Vote ran that field component and youth turned out for Bill Clinton. In 1996 and 2000, there was no similar field effort and youth turnout declined.

Beginning in 2004, outside organizations emerged who have taken on the responsibility of coordinating such field campaigns and we've seen the results. The youth vote has turned out in greater numbers in the last three election cycles and is growing greater with every year. In 2004 (pdf), 4.3 million more young voters (18 - 29) went to the polls than in 2000. Turnout rose from 40 percent to 49 percent. In swing states that were targeted by youth organizers, turnout was 17 percent higher than in non-targeted states. Young voters were also the only age demographic to choose John Kerry over George Bush. In 2006 (pdf), youth turnout rose during a midterm election for the first time in over 20 years. According to the latest research by Rock the Vote, youth turnout participation in the primaries has doubled since 2004.

Fact: Youth will turnout if you engage them and dedicate real campaign resources.

Myth 2 - The youth vote never won an election. In the 2006 midterm elections, young voters chose Democrats over Republicans 60 - 38 percent, and three Democratic candidates in particular owe their election to young voters. In Montana, Jon Tester ran a very YouTube-centric campaign that made an effort to reach out to young voters. He was aided by the field work of Forward Montana, an efffective local youth organization, the Minnesota Youth Coordinated Campaign, which targeted young voters, and newly implemented election day registration,which can boost youth turnout by 10 - 14 percent. Young voters increased their share of the electorate from 9 percent in 2002 to 17 percent and Tester squeaked in by a few thousand votes. (More here - pdf)

more...

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/passingthrough/327903

[papau]

1. There are no examples of youth vote turnout - Obama primary fans don't show up while Hillarys would

have. High youth vote turnout just has never happened.

But I guess that proves Obama does not "need" Hillary as VP (I expect Obama will not choose a woman but will squeeze out a win - so "need" is in quotes - need only exists if we want a large win and party unity).

[MercutioATC]

2. Truth be told, more of Obama's "fans" DID show up...

...which is why he's our nominee.


What's the point of belaboring the issue?

[babylonsister]

3. No? "Obama's Youth Vote Triumph" and there are many articles

like this one. Talk about eschewing party unity-every post you make tries to divide. Wednesday can't come soon enough.

Obama's Youth Vote Triumph
Friday, Jan. 04, 2008 By DAVID VON DREHLE


Last summer, Barack Obama took a lot of heat for skipping a candidate forum in Iowa sponsored by the AARP, choosing instead to attend a hip-hop event starring Usher.

But Obama clearly knew something others didn't, and that zig where others zagged now appears to have been a shrewd move on the path to a dramatic achievement. Obama's youth-oriented campaign drew under-25 voters to Thursday's Iowa caucuses in record numbers, and these first-time voters gave him most of his margin of victory.

Turnout among the youngest slice of the electorate more than doubled from 2004, when Howard Dean's intense campaign on college campuses produced far more modest results. This was part of an overall surge in Democratic participation — but while overall Democratic turnout jumped 90%, the number of young Democrats participating soared 135%.

According to surveys of voters entering the caucuses, young voters preferred Obama over the next-closest competitor by more than 4 to 1. This suggests that the under-25 set — typically among the most elusive voters in all of politics — gave the Illinois Senator a net gain of some 17,000 votes; Obama finished roughly 20,000 votes ahead of former Senator John Edwards and Sen. Hillary Clinton.

more...

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1700525,00.html