THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, Oct 26 – Obama 385, McCain 153

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THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, Oct 26 – Obama 385, McCain 153

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, October 26, 2008

Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote
6. National Polls
7. Obama’s Seventeen
8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. Probabilities and Potentials
11. Sources and Links

1. Current Stats

With only nine days remaining until the election, John McCain is running strictly on Barack Obama’s perceived negatives even as his own negative ratings soar. The McCain campaign is also behind in the money race and has had to cut campaign operations everywhere except for a selected group of states that could give him an outside chance of winning 270 electoral votes. Joe Biden gaffed about Obama’s readiness to be tested, and a McCain campaign volunteer in Pennsylvania and College Republican National Committee member named Ashley Todd fabricated a racially-charged mugging and assault incident that follows the storyline straight from the movie, “Rosewood.” Meanwhile, Obama continues to lead in many national polls by double digits.

States moving to the left this week are: Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Indiana (11), Minnesota (10), Montana (3), Ohio (20) and South Dakota (3). States moving to the right this week are: Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4) and West Virginia (5). Indiana and West Virginia were the only states to switch sides this week, Indiana red to blue and West Virginia blue to red.

Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Number of Days Until the Election: 9 days

Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 385
McCain – 153
Needed to Win – 270

Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 70,136,472 … (50.4%) … (+10,316,409)
McCain – 59,820,063 … (43.0%)
Barr – 3,519,245 … (2.5%)
Nader – 3,122,829 … (2.2%)
McKinney – 278,388 … (0.2%)
Undecided/Other – 2,595,675 … (1.9%)

Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 67.74%
McCain – 32.26%

Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 71,894,782 … (51.65%) … (+11,237,354)
McCain – 60,657,428 … (43.45%)
All Others – 6,920,462 … (4.9%)

Probability of Obama Win – 100.0% (if the election were held today)

Strength of Projection – 82.4%

^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.

^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.

2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 58.9% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 26.4%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error falls to 79 this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (67.7%-32.3%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 385, up from 378 last week.

^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.

^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.

3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The electoral votes from states within the margin of error dropped from 92 electoral votes last week to 79 electoral votes this week. Georgia (15), Montana (3) and Nevada (5) moved into the margin of error this week, while Indiana (11), Ohio (20) and West Virginia (5) moved out.

^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”

4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was trailing George W. Bush 247 electoral votes to 285 electoral votes, with 6 tied. Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 193 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. And Obama has 93 fewer Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also 43 fewer electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had 38 more Strong electoral votes and 19 more Weak electoral votes then.

^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.

^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.

^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.

5. Popular Vote

Obama is currently projected to win 50.4% of the popular vote, and he is leading McCain by 7.4%. Barr is taking 2.5% of the vote, while Nader is polling at 2.2% and McKinney is polling at 0.2%. The percentage of Undecideds jumps this week to 1.9%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote margin increases to 8.2%.

^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126 million votes up for grabs this year.

^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions as well as the percentages. The scale is between 0 and 136 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 68 million votes.

^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%.

^ FIGURE 5d. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.

6. National Polls

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama jumps one percentage point to 51% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama rises two percentage points to 52%. Meanwhile, DailyKos & Research 2000’s daily tracking average for Obama increases two percentage points to 52% and the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking average for Obama moves up one percentage point to 50%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 50.4% for Obama, which is an increase of 0.8% from last week. Obama is now leading McCain in Gallup by 8%, leading by 8% in Rasmussen, leading by 12% in Research 2000, leading by 7% in Hotline and leading by 8.0% in RCP.

The Daily Trackers showed Obama leading by 5.9% last week as a whole, but his lead leaps on average to 8.4% in the Daily Trackers this week. That’s a 2.5% jump in one week. In the Big 12 National Monthly Polls, Obama’s lead grew from 7.8% last week to 9.0% this week on average. Looking at all national polling together, Obama went from leading by 7.2% overall last week to leading by 8.8% overall this week, a jump of 1.6%.

^ FIGURE 6a. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.

^ FIGURE 6b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

^ FIGURE 6c. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.

7. Obama’s Seventeen

Overall trading for the 17 states that the Obama Campaign is targeting this year rose 63.90 points to 1216.60 this week, an increase of 3.8%. This is above the majority mark of 850.00. All states gained ground this week except for Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Figure 7c below shows how all 17 states are polling together as a group over time. Barack Obama’s trend line is right at 50% in that graph, while John McCain’s trend line is holding at 43%.

^ FIGURE 7a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 7b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 7c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 86.6, up from 83.3 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets rose from 83.6 to 87.4 this week. Our Wigand Electoral Average moved up from 63.20 to 64.31 this week for Obama, as West Virginia moved out of Obama’s territory and Indiana moved in.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states in the Wigand Electoral Average jumps 41.30 this week to 818.70 for Obama, well above the majority mark of 600.00. The only states losing ground this week are Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Wisconsin. Obama is leading McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 67.7% to 32.3%. This is up 1.9 percentage points from last week for Obama.

^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.

Alabama

Obama 34, McCain 54 (AEA/Capital Survey, 10/16, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
Alaska

Obama 42, McCain 53 (Moore Research, 10/19, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Arizona

Obama 40, McCain 44 (Myers/Grove, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arkansas

Obama 36, McCain 51 (University of Arkansas, 10/11, +/- 2.5, 1500 RV)
Arkansas

Obama 41, McCain 52 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
California

Obama 56, McCain 33 (Public Policy Institute of CA, 10/19, +/- 3.0, 1186 LV)
Colorado

Obama 51, McCain 46 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/19 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Colorado

Obama 51, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 10/20, +/- 4.0, 576 LV)
Colorado

Obama 52, McCain 40, B1, N1 (Rocky Mountain News, 10/23, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Florida

Obama 48, McCain 49 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/19 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Florida

Obama 48, McCain 47 (Public Policy Polling, 10/19, +/- 2.9, 1158 LV)
Florida

Obama 45, McCain 46 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Florida

Obama 49, McCain 44 (Quinnipiac University, 10/21, +/- 2.6, 1433 LV)
Florida

Obama 49, McCain 42 (St. Petersburg Times, 10/22, +/- 3.5, 800 RV)
Florida

Obama 46, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Florida

Obama 48, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 562 LV)
Georgia

Obama 44, McCain 46, B2, N2 (Democracy Corps, 10/19 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Georgia

Obama 46, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Georgia

Obama 45, McCain 51 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Georgia

Obama 48, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 615 LV)
Illinois

Obama 56, McCain 32, B0, N2 (Chicago Tribune, 10/18, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Illinois

Obama 61, McCain 32 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Illinois

Obama 59, McCain 35 (Research 2000, 10/23, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Indiana

Obama 48, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 10/19, +/- 2.6, 1411 LV)
Indiana

Obama 51, McCain 41 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Indiana

Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 631 LV)
Iowa

Obama 52, McCain 39 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Iowa

Obama 52, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Kansas

Obama 41, McCain 53 (Survey USA, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 613 LV)
Kentucky

Obama 39, McCain 53 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Kentucky

Obama 41, McCain 54 (Survey USA, 10/20, +/- 4.3, 535 LV)
Kentucky

Obama 44, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 10/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Kentucky

Obama 39, McCain 55 (Research 2000, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Louisiana

Obama 41, McCain 57 (Rasmussen, 10/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine

Obama 54, McCain 39 (Pan Atlantic SMS, 10/16, +/- 4.9, 400 LV)
Maine

Obama 56, McCain 35 (Critical Insights, 10/19, +/- 4.7, 443 LV)
Maine

Obama 54, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/20, +/- 3.9, 642 LV)
Massachusetts

Obama 53, McCain 34 (Suffolk University, 10/21, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Michigan

Obama 58, McCain 36 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Michigan

Obama 51, McCain 37, B1, N1 (EPIC-MRA, 10/22, +/- 4.9, 400 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 52, McCain 39 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 52, McCain 41 (Star Tribune, 10/16 +/- 3.8, 1049 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 50, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 10/18 +/- 3.9, 655 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 50, McCain 40 (National Journal, 10/20, +/- 4.9, 405 RV)
Minnesota

Obama 57, McCain 38 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 56, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Missouri

Obama 44, McCain 45, Nader 1 (Suffolk University, 10/19 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri

Obama 49, McCain 44 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/19 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Missouri

Obama 48, McCain 47 (Research 2000, 10/23, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Montana

Obama 45, McCain 49 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Montana

Obama 44, McCain 40, Paul 4, B1, N1 (Montana St U, 10/20, +/- 5.0, 403 RV)
Nevada

Obama 47, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/19, +/- 3.6, 690 LV)
Nevada

Obama 49, McCain 43, B2, N3 (CNN/Time, 10/21, +/- 3.5, 700 LV)
New Hampshire

Obama 50, McCain 43 (Research 2000, 10/19 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire

Obama 50, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Jersey

Obama 55, McCain 38 (Monmouth University, 10/18, +/- 3.7, 723 LV)
New Jersey

Obama 59, McCain 36 (Quinnipiac University, 10/19, +/- 2.9, 1184 LV)
New Jersey

Obama 56, McCain 39 (Marist College, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 628 LV)
New York

Obama 65, McCain 29 (Marist College, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 527 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 45, McCain 44 (Winthrop University, 10/9, +/- 3.6, 744 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 51, McCain 44, Barr 2 (Public Policy Polling, 10/19 +/- 2.8, 1200 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 51, McCain 48 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/19 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 49, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 10/19, +/- 3.6, 698 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 47, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 10/20, +/- 4.0, 627 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 48, McCain 45 (Civitas, 10/20, +/- 4.2, 600 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 48, McCain 46 (WSOC-TV, 10/21, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 51, McCain 46, Barr 2 (CNN/Time, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 634 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 48, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Ohio

Obama 45, McCain 46 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/17 +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Ohio

Obama 51, McCain 42, B1, N1 (Suffolk University, 10/19 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio

Obama 47, McCain 49 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/19 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Ohio

Obama 49, McCain 44, B2, N3 (CNN/Time, 10/21, +/- 3.5, 737 LV)
Ohio

Obama 52, McCain 38 (Quinnipiac University, 10/21, +/- 2.7, 1360 LV)
Ohio

Obama 53, McCain 41 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Ohio

Obama 52, McCain 42 (Insider Advantage, 10/22, +/- 5.0, 408 LV)
Ohio

Obama 45, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Ohio

Obama 49, McCain 46, B1, N2 (Univ of Cincinnati, 10/22, +/- 3.3, 886 LV)
Ohio

Obama 51, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 10/23, +/- 3.1, 993 LV)
Oklahoma

Obama 35, McCain 59 (Survey USA, 10/19, +/- 4.2, 561 LV)
Oklahoma

Obama 32.4, McCain 63.7 (TvPoll.com, 10/20, +/- 3.5, 763 LV)
Oregon

Obama 52, McCain 39, B1, N1 (Grove Insight, 10/9 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Oregon

Obama 48, McCain 34 (Riley Research, 10/15, +/- 4.4, 499 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/18 +/- 4.0, 599 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 48, McCain 40, B1, N2 (Susquehanna, 10/18 +/- 3.7, 700 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 53, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/19 +/- 4.0, 607 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 42 (Morning Call, 10/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 51, McCain 41 (National Journal, 10/20, +/- 4.9, 405 RV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 594 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 53, McCain 40 (Quinnipiac University, 10/21, +/- 2.6, 1425 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 42 (Morning Call, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 41 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 53, McCain 41 (Survey USA, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 620 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 50, McCain 43 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 40 (Muhlenberg College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 608 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 41 (Morning Call, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 601 LV)
South Carolina

Obama 35, McCain 55 (Winthrop University, 10/9, +/- 3.9, 617 LV)
South Carolina

Obama 43, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/20, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
South Dakota

Obama 41, McCain 48 (Mason-Dixon, 10/15, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
South Dakota

Obama 41, McCain 50 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Tennessee

Obama 42, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Tennessee

Obama 38, McCain 54 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Texas

Obama 44, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia

Obama 45, McCain 44 (Winthrop University, 10/9, +/- 3.8, 665 LV)
Virginia

Obama 54, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Virginia

Obama 51, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/19 +/- 3.9, 652 LV)
Virginia

Obama 47, McCain 45 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Virginia

Obama 51, McCain 44, B2, N3 (CNN/Time, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 647 LV)
Virginia

Obama 52, McCain 43 (Public Policy Polling, 10/23, +/- 2.8, 1231 LV)
Washington

Obama 55, McCain 36 (Elway Poll, 10/19, +/- 5.0, 405 RV)
Washington

Obama 54, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 41, McCain 42 (Rainmaker Media Group, 10/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 42, McCain 50 (Public Policy Polling, 10/17 +/- 2.8, 1223 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 41, McCain 47 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/17 +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 43, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 10/20, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 41, McCain 53, N2, M1 (CNN/Time, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 647 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 43.5, McCain 49.2 (Orion Strategies, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 51, McCain 39 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/17 +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 51, McCain 38 (WI Public Radio, 10/17, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 51, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/19 +/- 3.9, 641 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 53, McCain 40 (National Journal, 10/20, +/- 4.9, 405 RV)
Wisconsin

Obama 52, McCain 41 (Research 2000, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 53, McCain 40 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Wyoming

Obama 32, McCain 58 (Mason-Dixon, 10/14, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Wyoming

Obama 37, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 10/19, +/- 4.0, 604 LV)

10. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 73.6%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 41.1%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +32.5% (up from +25.3% last week). McCain’s potential advantage fell by 4.8 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage rose by 2.4 percentage points.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 63.0% and Bush’s potential advantage was 59.7%. Kerry led Bush by 3.3% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +32.5% lead in potential advantages now.

Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 260 … (48.3%)
McCain – 124 … (23.0%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 317 … (58.9%)
McCain – 142 … (26.4%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 396 … (73.6%)
McCain – 142 … (26.4%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 317 … (58.9%)
McCain – 221 … (41.1%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 414 … (77.0%)
McCain – 124 … (23.0%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 260 … (48.3%)
McCain – 278 … (51.7%)

“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.

11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com
3 Blue Dudes

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything! Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

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