Lebanon feels the Obama effect

[Mulehead]

The pro-west coalition's narrow win in Beirut is the first indication that the US president's Middle East message is being heard. Simon Tisdall, www.guardian.co.uk, Monday 8 June 2009 19.00 BST

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Foreign policy experts and commentators have been trying to elucidate an "Obama doctrine" ever since the new US president took office. Lebanon's surprise election result, in which a pro-western coalition narrowly triumphed, suggests these analysts have got things the wrong way round. Whatever the theory may be, the Beirut turnabout is the first, circumstantial evidence of a tangible "Obama effect" in the Middle East. It could be catching.

It would be fanciful to claim that Obama's bridge-building speech to the Muslim world in Cairo last week, attractive though it was, crucially influenced Lebanese voters. But the calmer, unconfrontational tone adopted by Washington on Middle East issues since George Bush trudged home to Texas appears to have struck a chord in a country that was teetering on the brink of sectarian civil war one year ago.

Pre-election visits by Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, and Joe Biden, the US vice-president, underscored the importance that Obama attached to the poll. Some resented these interventions as unwarranted interference. But many Lebanese, particularly the nearly 40% of the population that is Christian, seem to have approved of Washington's increased engagement; and to have heard its implicit message that a vote for Hezbollah and its allies would be a backwards step.

That refrain was underscored by exaggerated claims that Hezbollah and its Tehran backers, if further empowered, would turn Lebanon into a second Gaza. And if that was not enough, an eve-of-poll demarche by Boutros Sfeir, spiritual leader of the country's Maronite Christians, may have done the trick. He warned the country was in danger. It was clear from whom he believed the danger emanated.

By giving the nod to Saad Hariri and his 14 March bloc of Sunni Muslim, Druze and Christian parties, which won 71 parliamentary seats against 57 for the opposition, Lebanon has provided Obama with his first significant regional policy success. The result is a setback for Iran, which has sought enhanced influence via Hezbollah. And it confirmed Lebanon's 2005 rejection of Syria as the master manipulator of its affairs, confounding suggestions that Damascus was inching back.

The results are also a boost for western-leaning Arab regimes, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, that helped prevent Lebanon falling into the abyss after the assassination of Hariri's father, the former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, and the subsequent, disastrous Hezbollah-Israel war of 2006. Saudi Arabia's rapprochement with Syria, and a parallel warming of ties between Syria and the US, will be all the easier to pursue as a result of Sunday's election.

In contrast, the rightwing Israeli government of Binyamin Netanyahu may view the vote with ambivalence. The prospect of the non-ideological Hariri as Lebanon's prime minister, a likely though not yet certain outcome, must be welcome in Tel Aviv. But this dash to moderation robs Israel's favourite contemporary narrative – the inexorable, region-wide advance of an existentially threatening, nuclear armed Iran – of some of its power to alarm.

Peace suddenly breaking out is not part of the story as told by Netanyahu, not while the mullahs march unchecked. The Palestinians know this only too well.

Visiting London earlier this year, Hariri spoke of "four fateful years" that had followed his father's murder culminating in this month's "historic" election. "We are determined to end the sectarian violence. We want to put the years of turmoil behind us," he said. This could be achieved by continuing the dialogue with Hezbollah and other opposition groups that produced a unity government last year. Noting increased US engagement, he urged the EU to do more.

Hariri will need all the help he can get, for power-sharing is only one of many daunting challenges. His ally, Walid Jumblatt, the veteran Druze leader, said this week that Hezbollah should be included in a new unity government but that the veto power it gained in last year's compromise should not be renewed. The Shia party will fiercely resist any attempt to reduce its influence, just as it continues to resist demands that it disarm.

Massive economic difficulties, the uncertain impact of the international tribunal investigating Rafiq Hariri's murder, problems with Palestinian factions and Sunni militants linked to al-Qaida and border disputes with Israel and Syria also await Lebanon's new leaders. None of this will be sorted out quickly if at all.

But Hariri has a powerful friend. Having got the result he wanted, Obama will help. And who knows? It's possible that watching Iranians will be encouraged in their turn to go out and vote for reformist, west-friendly candidates in Friday's presidential election. Lebanon may be just the beginning of the "Obama effect".


http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/08/lebanon-elections-obama-effect