The Election Is Kerry's To Lose By John Zogby

[jbfam4]

The Election Is Kerry's To Lose

http://www.zogby.com/news/051004.html
By John Zogby

I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.

Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry's performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn't, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion:

First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected - compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new.


In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.


Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.

[jo35042]

1. I pray that you are right!!

[sniffa]

2. he's understated it

it's kerry in a LandsLide. but don't Let that make you rest on your LaureLs; it'LL be a LandsLide because we deLivered it for him.

[Nancy Waterman]

3. I don't know about a landslide, but Kerry will win

Bush is looking more pathetic each month, and there will be no miracles to resuce him from Iraq. Already NATO is saying it won't even help til after the election, so their attitude is clear.

[sadiesworld]

4. But, but, but...Howie Kurtz says we need to dump Kerry.

And gee, let's compare the number of responses to this positive post with the number of responses to the Kurtz story. :eyes:

My money is on Zogby and Kerry, not Kurtz and his anonymous "dems".