China insider sees revolution brewing

[pampango]

Source: Sydney Morning Herald

In contrast with the powerful, assertive and united China that is being projected to the outside world, Yu Jianrong said his prediction of looming internal disaster reflected on-the-ground surveys and also the views of Chinese government ministers. Deepening social fractures were caused by the Communist Party's obsession with preserving its monopoly on power through ''state violence'' and ''ideology'', rather than justice, Professor Yu said. Disaster could be averted only if ''interest groups'' - which he did not identify - were capable of making a rational compromise to subordinate themselves to the constitution, he said.

Some lawyers, economists and religious and civil society leaders have expressed similar views but it is unusual for someone with Professor Yu's official standing to make such direct and detailed criticisms of core Communist Party policies. Professor Yu is known as an outspoken insider. As the director of social issues research at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Rural Affairs he advises top leaders and conducts surveys on social unrest.

His speech was delivered on December 26, the day after the rights activist Liu Xiaobo was sentenced to 11 years in jail for helping to draft a manifesto for constitutional and democratic government in China, called Charter '08. The sentence, which shocked liberal intellectuals and international observers, followed a tumultuous year during which the party tightened controls over almost all spheres of China's burgeoning civil society, including the internet, media, legal profession, non-government organisations and business.

Professor Yu's speech has not been previously reported but has recently emerged on Chinese websites. He cited statistics showing the number of recorded incidents of ''mass unrest'' grew from 8709 in 1993 to more than 90,000 in each of the past three years. ''More and more evidence shows that the situation is getting more and more tense, more and more serious,'' Professor Yu said.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-insider-sees-revolution-brewing-20100226-p92d.html

[greiner3]

1. "China insider sees revolution brewing;"

It would be a blood bath.

[old mark]

2. Would not stand a chance. The PLA stands with the state against the unarmed people. nt

[On the Road]

3. I Don't Think it Stands a Chance Either

because they're isolated incidents of grievances. I doubt there's much popular support for a revolution.

[pampango]

4. You're probably right, but every ruler from Louis XIV to Marcos to the Shah thought the army

could protect him from the people. Protection comes not just from the army having guns but being willing to shoot them at the people, which the PLA still is. What must worry the Chinese leadership, as it should Louis, Ferdinand, and Mohammad Reza is that the day the troops are no longer willing to shoot civilians in large numbers often doesn't come with much advanced notice. ;)

[lovuian]

5. these people are educated

and China's leadership will fall

[bemildred]

6. You gotta consider the three generation rule too, China's about 60 years on

now from the People's Revolution. It's not like China is well managed, any more than the USA.

[old mark]

7. Actually I agree with all the above, and I hope to be alive to see it. nt

[bemildred]

9. Yeah, one of my reasons for being careful is being around to watch the show.

Things have been pretty amazing ever since the felonious five selected Bush the Usurper. We live at a crucial moment in history, a unique opportunity, and nobody really knows how its going to go; but it is very clear that it ain't going to be pretty or well-managed.

[Demeter]

8. The Race With China Continues

Which nation will be the first to trigger revolution?

[bemildred]

10. My money is on China, FWIW, mostly because they have so many "restive minorities".

Once the high growth phase ends it's going to be much harder to keep the lid on. But time makes fools of us all.