WSJ: As the Recovery Gains Momentum, Democrats Are Forced to Refocus

[question everything]

June 23, 2004

PAGE ONE


By JACOB M. SCHLESINGER
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
June 23, 2004; Page A1

(snip)

As a result, Democrats are edging away from their charges that President Bush is presiding over a "jobless recovery," which has been a staple of their campaign rhetoric. That argument is giving way to the line of attack that working America is suffering a "middle-class squeeze." Under that approach, presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry and his allies are trying to turn the focus more toward a series of financial woes that they say are afflicting even middle-class households without job worries: medical bills, gasoline prices and college tuition. Democrats further argue that there's still been a net job loss under Mr. Bush -- and that the jobs being created are inferior ones.

(snip)


The shift in the economic debate is significant, because it's been unclear how economic anxieties would compete with Iraq for voters' attention. President Bush's campaign also is shifting ground to take the new situation into account, sending administration aides and campaign officials out with each new batch of employment numbers to trumpet a turnaround in a subject that not long ago was a sore point. And they have begun portraying Mr. Kerry as an economic "pessimist" who has a dour and unhelpful view of an economy that is turning up.

(snip)

The changed terrain increasingly has Bush advisers comparing their candidate to Bill Clinton, a politician they're usually loath to invoke. Mr. Clinton launched his 1996 re-election campaign amid doubts about the strength of the economy, but by that November, voters were widely persuaded a solid boom was under way.

(snip)

Yet polls suggest the economy this year remains fertile territory for Mr. Kerry, as many Americans still express skepticism about the recovery. An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted over the weekend showed voters, by 53% to 46%, disapproved of President Bush's handling of the economy, though that was better than the 10-point gap back in April... So things are getting better in many ways -- but remain worse than when Mr. Bush took office in January 2001. The unemployment rate back then stood at 4.2%, and the economy had 1.2 million more jobs. And while the White House says Mr. Bush has addressed middle-class financial concerns, in part with a series of federal tax cuts over the past three years -- opponents note that some of those reductions have been offset by sharp state and local tax increases during the same period.

(snip)


Write to Jacob M. Schlesinger at [e-mail]

URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB108793760396544414,00.html

[swag]

1. Most citizens are only seeing inflation,

in terms of rising gas and food prices. Most citizens are seeing their real purchasing power shrink. GDP growth means little to people who are losing purchasing power.

And what can GDP growth mean to the long-term jobless in this latest Bush recession?

[question everything]

3. I found a few weeks old issue of Business Week

with a cover story that one in four Americans can be categorized as "working poor." I cannot access the story online but it talked about nurses, and security guards and retail workers who earn less than $25,000 annually and who do not get benefits and cannot afford to purchase their own health insurance.

And that this issue often does not generate headlines since many still believe in the "American Dream" that if one has the "moxie" one can pull oneself from poverty. A lot about the Wal-Marting of America that caused the long strike in supermarket in California.

But... that less than 50% - don't remember the actual number - of the working poor bother to vote, while 75% of the investment class do.

[struggle4progress]

5. Working...And Poor

<snip>
Today more than 28 million people, about a quarter of the workforce between the ages of 18 and 64, earn less than $9.04 an hour, which translates into a full-time salary of $18,800 a year -- the income that marks the federal poverty line for a family of four.
<snip>
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_22/b3885001_mz001.htm

[question everything]

13. Thanks a lot. The more I read the scarier it is

Also, this symbolizes the problems in this country

"Over 26 years, she worked her way up to $17.90 an hour as a cashier at Ralph's Grocery Co. (KR ) store in the posh California enclave of Indian Wells. To Kovas, the Medici-like lifestyles of her customers -- the personal chefs, the necklaces that would pay her yearly salary -- never seemed so much an emblem of inequality as a symbol of what was possible."

The poor and the underdog never tried to climb the barricades, in the mistaken notion that they, too, can get to be filthy rich.. Sadly, for too many people, the desire is not so much to bring more equality to the classes but to be the upper class and everyone else be damned..

[struggle4progress]

14. The rich practice class warfare. The poor pretend there's no such thing.

[Cathi]

2. Let's refocus on keeping the re thugs from spending on the rich!

We have watched these idiots destroy our land and grab every cent they can for the wealthy. Let us strive for a more perfect union and see that health care and wages and poverty are a priority in OUR land!
:smoke:

[filterfish]

4. election day should be a holiday

letting the worker get away from the mcjob to vote would be a good first step, imho

http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/98oct/electday.htm

[librechik]

6. caution: objects in mirror are smaller than they appear

the deficit sorta wipes out the GDP growth, doesn't it? Not to mention personal consumer debt...

I think the Dems ought to focus on how Bush will make that worse and worse, while his successful buddies pocket the taxes we pay and our infrastructure sags into ruin.

[cmutt]

7. stats are one thing..

The WH-manipulated stats say one thing; the general public knows different. Ask yourself this: does the economy feel like it's recovering to you? Does it feel like it's booming? It doesn't jive with the stats, does it? How many people do you know that are unemployed or underemployed? Does the job market seem booming to them? Why is "jobless recovery" in quotes? Last time I looked, our economy, under Bush, as resulted in negative job-growth. A curiously-large portion of the jobs reported by the BLS were created by estimates -- with no hard data to support them. Historically, these estimates were small-enough-in-nature to not have had a substantial impact on the overall forecast. It certainly was NOT like March's 288,000 jobs: 270,000 were because of the birth/death forecast. The BLS refuses to divulge if their modeling has changed, or what their basis is for the calculation itself.

The WSJ op-ed piece is not much different than a righty co-worker of mine. About a year ago, this co-worker told me that he didn't believe there was even a recession going on! As proof, he mentioned that his big-screen-tv was on backorder at Best Buy.

Just because you don't feel it/see it, doesn't mean that it's not happening. Big screen HDTV's may not be kept it stock at all. Go into Best Buy and look at the 10-15 $1500+ TV's they have on display. Do you think that EACH store has that kind of inventory sitting in their backroom -- in case someone comes in to purchase one? I can't believe people buy into this garbage!

[newyawker99]

9. Hi cmutt!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[cmutt]

10. thank you!!

Thanks 99 (sorry, couldn't resist)! You are the 2nd person to welcome me today! I've been lurking & reading for quite some time -- finally joined up today. I'm afraid Ashcroft & Co have my name for sure now! At least I've got good company!

[Demeter]

8. WHAT RECOVERY????!!!!!

If there's an economic recovery out there, why am I going out of business? Not to mention several other businesses within walking distance of my place.

[Karenina]

12. That was EXACTLY my response.

:toast: So now all I have to do is :kick:

[DinahMoeHum]

11. So where are the jobs anyway?

and how come so many people still aren't working?

:shrug:

[question everything]

15. I.... did get a job. A part time

and the reason for this job is because this employer has been doing better in the past six months, especially after horrid couple of years of laying off most of the people and taking a long time to get out of the lease - or to sublease, not sure - of their enormous brand new digs and to retreat to a smaller one. This employer provides technical parts to other, larger manufacturers and I certainly can see a large volume of orders in both quantity and price.

So, yes, some places are doing better but my employer is not hiring, except for me for a part time to assist with the high volume of sales and this clearly could be a full-time job but my boss does not have the budget.

The sad reality is that businesses laid off many people during the recession and now are not in a hurry to hire new ones and the ones left behind have to carry the extra work and, I can see in my office, so many are stretched so thin that I wonder whether or when they will just snap.

Do we feel confidence? No. We are now four years older and worry more about retirement, about being able to pick up new threads the way we used to when we were younger.