Into Egypt’s Uncharted Territory

[EFerrari]

Hesham Sallam, Joshua Stacher and Chris Toensing

February 1, 2011

(Hesham Sallam is a doctoral candidate in government at Georgetown University. Joshua Stacher is assistant professor of Middle East politics at Kent State University. Chris Toensing is editor of Middle East Report.)

Amidst the monumental Egyptian popular uprising of 2011, Plan A for the Egyptian regime and the Obama administration was for Husni Mubarak to remain president of Egypt indefinitely. They have now moved on to Plan B.

It was clear that Mubarak was no longer calling the shots before his broadcast statement on February 1, in which he promised to step down in September. The previous evening, it was not he but his newly named vice president, ‘Umar Sulayman, who appeared on state television to announce the latest government measures, chiefly an offer to negotiate with opposition figures over the direction of a political transition. The opposition -- that is, the heads of the various half-dead parties that the regime has allowed to exist, though not to organize, for the last three decades -- wisely declined. They said they would negotiate, but not until Mubarak had resigned the presidency and left the country. In this move, they relied upon the staying power of the crowds in Cairo’s main Tahrir Square and cities and towns across the country, which, with ups and downs in the number of participants, have pressed that same demand for seven days and counting. The “march of millions” on February 1 would seem to have sealed the octogenarian dictator’s fate.

With Plan A obsolete, Plan B for the regime and its backers in Washington is to ride out the uprising with their basic authoritarian prerogatives intact. Sulayman and his entourage intend to stage an “orderly, peaceful transition” (to use the Obama administration’s phrase) from the reign of one arbitrary autocrat to another, adorned with the trappings of more liberal democracy. They have offered up Mubarak as a sacrificial lamb, as they did Interior Minister Habib al-‘Adli and before him Ahmad ‘Izz, the ruling-party bigwig and chief crony of Mubarak’s son and presumptive heir Gamal. The army, thus far, is solidly behind them, its protestations of sympathy with the people to the contrary. The wild card, therefore, remains the exuberantly angry crowds in Egypt’s streets, who received Mubarak’s address with scorn. The outcome of their massive uprising hangs in the balance.

The Agility of the Crowds

It is difficult to know whether to characterize the course of events to date as an early-stage revolution or a sort of half-coup. Perhaps both descriptions are apt.

http://www.merip.org/mero/mero020111.html

[DCKit]

1. Mubarak and his new VP have proven they will not allow a peaceful transition.

I spent all day hoping the military would open fire on those attacking the peaceful protesters... maybe tomorrow.

[EFerrari]

2. The thugs are massing in the nw corner extrance to the square.

They are expected to attack soon. Most of the press has left for the night.

[DCKit]

3. Typical behavior (of cowards with weapons). I really hope this turns out for the best. nt