July Surprise

[Qutzupalotl]

July Surprise
by John B. Judis, Spencer Ackerman & Massoud Ansari
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Post date 07.07.04 | Issue date 07.19.04 Email this article. E-mail this article

Late last month, President Bush lost his greatest advantage in his bid for reelection. A poll conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post discovered that challenger John Kerry was running even with the president on the critical question of whom voters trust to handle the war on terrorism. Largely as a result of the deteriorating occupation of Iraq, Bush lost what was, in April, a seemingly prohibitive 21-point advantage on his signature issue. But, even as the president's poll numbers were sliding, his administration was implementing a plan to insure the public's confidence in his hunt for Al Qaeda.

This spring, the administration significantly increased its pressure on Pakistan to kill or capture Osama bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman Al Zawahiri, or the Taliban's Mullah Mohammed Omar, all of whom are believed to be hiding in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan. A succession of high-level American officials--from outgoing CIA Director George Tenet to Secretary of State Colin Powell to Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca to State Department counterterrorism chief Cofer Black to a top CIA South Asia official--have visited Pakistan in recent months to urge General Pervez Musharraf's government to do more in the war on terrorism. In April, Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador to Afghanistan, publicly chided the Pakistanis for providing a "sanctuary" for Al Qaeda and Taliban forces crossing the Afghan border. "The problem has not been solved and needs to be solved, the sooner the better," he said.
....
But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of (any) HVT (High Value Target) were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July"--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

more

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040719&s=aaj071904

[stellanoir]

1. an alleged tape from OBL spoke on 4/15 of

a 3 month window for European troops to withdraw from Iraq.
That window closes on 7/15.

That kinda makes you go hmmmmm. . .?

[Spinzonner]

2. Bush has an easy answer for that

"It's so Cheneyed up that Kerry can't do any better than I can"

Of course, that's hardly a statement of competence and confidence.

And it may be true, unless Kerry is willing to withdraw and let loose the dogs of civil war.

[Immad2]

3. Very Interesting!

Thanks for the link!

[gold_bug]

4. I remember Josh Marshall's quip about this

several months ago and I've been patiently waiting for more info about this to come out.

[chiburb]

5. Aaron Brown had the authors on last night...

Brown made a pledge to stay on top of this...
(I'm told. I didn't see it myself.)