Another crash not far off?

[midwayer]

Bill Fleckenstein

Today, we not only have a Fed that is behind the curve, but far worse, the Fed is trapped and unable to ease to rescue the market. It's a variation of the theme I talked about recently in my New York speech -- that the next time down in the economy or the stock market, folks will realize that the Fed can't save them. If folks realize that the Fed can't save the day, that the stock market and economy are "on their own," and potentially heading south, that could easily foment panic.
The other potential catalyst now, as in 1987: The dollar is (potentially) coming unstuck, and foreigners could pressure the dollar, or in other ways get folks sensitized to the macro problems that exist, such that they'd want to sell stocks, at roughly the same time. Most people do not realize that the decline in the dollar over the last two years has been bigger than the drop leading up to October 19, 1987.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=20288331

[swag]

1. Funny how Fleckenstein, hedge fund manager, is always

touting the crashes. Golly, he has nothing to gain by it.

Not to diss you, midwayer, just to be aware of who butters Fleckenstein's bread: scared investors.

[midwayer]

3. I understand that

But he does bring up a good point that we are teetering and the risk factor right here is fairly great.

[midwayer]

2. Money is already

starting to tighten up even worse, I'm seeing it first hand in my micro-business right out on the front lines. There are many who won't feel it yet.

It would seem the Fed is between a rock and a hard spot right now and with the chances of a burst in the housing bubble and foreign interests holding off investment, the derivatives factor, the fed is keeping this thing propped the best they can, but for how long?

The trickle down effect spigot is shut off and small businesses will be the first to get hit (already are)

If the market gets hit, the days of wine and roses will be over.

[MsUSA]

4. Days of wine and roses are over????

My 403B has been losing money for the last 4 years.....no positive gains at all.....my wine and roses were dried up a long time ago. :-(

[smirkymonkey]

5. The October Surprise may not be

orchestrated by the Bush Administration after all...

I think it's going to be a bumpy ride until the end of '04.

[D-Notice]

6. I guess...

Being more than $7 trillion in debt, can't help the value of the dollar

On the plus side, it helps me if I'm internet shopping! ;-)

[The Zanti Regent]

7. Who cares about the debt?

The Republicans don't care, after all their TV Preacher allies keep saying that Jesus will come back in a week or 2 and heal everything. Why, when Jesus comes back there will be no oil shortage, he'll make all the oil that KKKristinas need!