Reflections of reality Does India have a bad-debt problem?

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http://www.economist.com/node/21525452

A RITUAL familiar to students of the subprime and euro crises has started taking place on Indian banks’ conference calls with analysts and investors. The number-crunchers probe the lenders about their exposures to potential bad debts. Bank bosses insist that, although there are niggles, all is under control.

Some scepticism is due. With India’s economy slowing—growth could dip below 8% this year, from a peak of 9-10%—and interest rates rising (see chart), borrowers will be under more strain. India’s banks have been growing fast for years, often a sign that discipline has slipped. Total loans have almost tripled since 2005.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which regulates banks and sets interest rates, has a record of running a tight ship. Gross non-performing loans have fallen from about a fifth of the total in 1995 to under 3% today. But the RBI is neither infallible nor squeaky-clean. Between 2005 and 2008 some foreign banks and several local ones got caught by a mini-boom in unsecured loans to consumers that quickly soured. And since the start of the global financial crisis the RBI has quietly given Indian lenders some get-out-of-jail cards; these may pale into insignificance compared with perks doled out by Western regulators but they suggest that the central bank prefers to fudge the recognition of losses in the system if it thinks stability is at risk.