Watch for China's split with Russia

[dArKeR]

By Paul Lin???

US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice recently visited Japan, China and South Korea. The tour was probably related to US President George W. Bush's preparations for the presidential election campaign.

The US has invited Chinese President Hu Jintao (???) to the US, partly to find out where China draws the line on the Taiwan issue, and partly to show voters the importance the administration attaches to the US-China relationship.

Of the two US presidential candidates, China clearly prefers the presumptive Democratic candidate, Senator John Kerry, who has said that he wants to solve the Taiwan issue using the "one country, two systems" model to Bush, who is militarily aggressive and quite friendly towards Taiwan. China will therefore raise the price for accepting Bush's invitation, since it doesn't want to improve Bush's chances during the election campaign. Rice's visit to China was therefore a difficult task. If Hu visits the US next month, it will attract a lot of attention. Apart from affecting the China-US relationship, such a visit will also have an effect on Beijing's internal power struggles.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2004/07/15/2003179066

[bemildred]

1. Another indicator that Russia is less worried about US plans in Asia. nt

[teryang]

2. This analysis overates Russian power

The pathetic transportation system in Russia is incapable of projecting enough power in northeast Asia to play the colonial games of the 19th Century. The Chinese will kick their butts. If they expect cooperation from Japan their arch enemy in Northeast Asia they are dreaming. Thirdly, American power in the area is declining which is causing the current posturing so they will get little support from that direction.

The only power that is growing in influence relative to the others is China. While its foes imagine that Chinese military strength may be hampered (like Japan's) by energy dependence, all they need are munitions, electronics and rocket fuel, people and geography will do the rest.

The idea that Rice is some kind of Count von Metternich in the aftermath of the foriegn policy diaster she has presided over is laughable.

[bemildred]

3. I thought it was a bit fanciful myself.

But interesting in that it picks up the self-interested
jockying for advantage we see now the Unca Sugar is immobilized
and bleeding in Iraq. I think we will see a resumption of
the old game of all against all in EurAsia, played on a rapidly
changing field.

It seems to me that the results of the US election are more of
domestic than international consequence, thanks to the NEOCONs.
Mr. Kerry's foreign policy is likely to be a tepid version of Mr.
Bush's, based on what is said, but Mr. Kerry will not have the
tools that Mr. Bush started with, but rather debilitated forces
and a long string of defeats and failures to start play from. Hence,
I would expect that Mr. Kerry's administration will fail too,
unless he is a smarter and more capable man than he gives any
evidence of at present.

[reprehensor]

4. China Russia split?

Hm, I don't think so.

It's more likely that Condi was swinging thru town trying to convince everyone she could not to sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Bali next week.

The Bush doctrine is making every nation on earth nervous. Although there is talk of Russia sending troops to Iraq down the road, that won't happen without major oil concessions.

It's more likely that Russia will sign on to the TAC, and smother the Silk Road Stategy in its crib.

Good going, W.

[coda]

5. Yes, let's send our NSA to Asia

" I've been pressed to understand parts of the world that have not been part of my scope. I'm really a Europeanist. "

- Condoleezza Rice



Of course she isn't busy so she might as well go, but they should at least change her title from the very misleading, "US National Security Adviser", to the far more accurate "Least Qualified National Security Adviser in US History"?




" I don't remember the al Qaeda cells as being something that we were told we needed to do something about. "

- Condoleezza Rice



or possibly to the simpler, "Presidential Explainerer"?



" {Condoleezza Rice} can explain to me foreign policy matters in a way I can understand. "

- George W Bush