Juan Cole's fascinating remarks on "Iran in Bush's Sights"

[lindashaw]

http://www.juancole.com/

(Israel wants the Litani River? hmmmm......)

...snip

The second test is Who is Helped by these Crazy Allegations?

- The Likud lobby in Washington, especially Michael Ledeen, Michael Rubin and other warmongers. They want the Tehran regime overthrown in part because it stands in the way of an Israeli annexation of southern Lebanon, with the Litani river as the long-sought prize. Iran is allied with Hizbullah in southern Lebanon, which forced the Israelis back out of Lebanon with a nearly 20-year long guerrilla struggle. They also want to force Hizbullah to pull back its support of the Palestinian uprising. Since Iran has substantially cut back on its support for Hizbullah, however, overthrowing Tehran would have little effect on such local political dynamics. (The Likud's Ariel Sharon should never have invaded Lebanon in 1982, which is what created Hizbullah, suicide bombings as a tactic, and radicalized Lebanese like 9/11 hijacker Ziad Jarrah).

- Old-time US intelligence and diplomatic officials who have a grudge with Iran over the Hostage Crisis and other Iranian actions against the US in the 1980s

- The US military-industrial complex, which is frustrated at not being able to extract money from the potentially wealthy Iranian market

- Iranian expatriates from families formerly allied with the deposed Shah of Iran, who are enormously wealthy and influential and are eager to play Chalabi in Tehran. Watch them as key sources of disinformation.

- Al-Qaeda, which is seeking to "sharpen contradictions" by provoking serial fights between the US and Muslim powers. It would especially like to see a US- Shiite struggle, so that its two major enemies would both be weakened and pre-occupied with each other rather than Bin Laden.

These five forces are, obviously, disparate and in other regards at odds with one another. But all would like to see a US war against Iran. We will see a process whereby any lie issuing from any of them is amplified by the others, creating a multiplier effect. In particular, AIPAC and the military-industrial complex have enormous weight with Congress and the White House, and can push for the war domestically even as the other forces feed US intelligence disinformation abroad.

[punpirate]

1. I really didn't want to read this...

... not because I don't appreciate Cole's perceptiveness, but because I do.... From this, I get the sense that some sort of considerable conflict with Iraq is not only brewing, but is, because of US policy, inevitable....

Shit.

[Torgo4]

2. Rough Justice

Last regime to take on Iran was Iraq...going for a quick land grab in 1980. That blitzkreig lasted 8 long years!!
After less than 2 years Iraq was on the ropes, using chemical weapons to stem the human-wave attacks.
Thank Gravity Reagan/Bush helped Hussein use those WMD on Iranians and Kurds...!
Oh wait...we had to fight Iraq in 1990-91!
And Iran has 3x population and land mass or Iraq!

I see a Wolfowitz cake-walk'a comin'

[nodictators]

3. October Surprise: BushCo bombs Iran, starts War #3

The media has already begun beating the war drums for an invasion of Iran. Estimated date for first bombs to fall: October 20, 13 days before the Presidential Election.

In my scanario, the ground troops, which will include many in the New Iraqi Army, won't invade Iran until early next year. The US will provide air power. Should be a cakewalk to Tehran. NOT!

[lottie244]

4. We will invade Iran because it allowed 'Al-qaeda operatives' to meet and

pass through its territories. Ok, but what do we do about the states withing the US that not only allowed Al-qaeda operatives to meet but to train, live, work, and learn to fly planes within their territories?
When the deal goes down there if far, far more evidence that the US harbored the 9/11 terrorists than Iraq or Iran. So I hope the US Congress doesn't let Bush get us into another war based on hype, fear, and more lies.

[acmavm]

5. Democrats need to start a big-time letter writing protest ahead of any

action that the bush* regime might take. Seriously, he is a danger to the US and the world, so people should really start hitting their representatives HARD. No war powers act for the incompetent chimp vis a vis Iran. NONE. He couldn't even come close to winning the two he's already started. Don't let him get away with snowing people with his talk of being the 'peace pResident'.

[Miss Authoritiva]

6. Gee, what kind of coalition will Bush be able to put together for this

escapade (is Tonga still willing)? And how stable would Iraq have to be before attempting "to bring democracy and freedom" to Iran? And this time around, what will be our exit strategy? And how long would it take to get the draft up and running for men and women between 18 and 35 -- and to train those lucky young people, presumably including Jenna and Barbara? And what will be the effect of a large-scale mobilization of 18 to 35 year olds on the Social Security Trust? And will the government have to start selling war bonds again -- maybe Ann Coulter can go on a war bonds tour -- because how much more debt can the country take on?