Guardian: Pity the man who wins this election

[muriel_volestrangler]

I think the Guardian's economics editor is concentrating too much on economics, but on that issue I can see his point. John Major wasn't anywhere near as incompetent and selfish as Bush Junior - leaving him in charge of the UK wasn't a threat to democracy and world peace.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1272402,00.html

In the aftermath of April 1992, there was much gloom in Labour's ranks. If the party couldn't win in such propitious circumstances, the argument went, there had to be a serious question mark over the chances of it ever getting back into power. But political karma meant the Conservatives got their come-uppance when, within six months, Britain was blown out of the exchange rate mechanism. The sight of the Treasury and the Bank of England impotent in the face of the overwhelming fire power of the markets was the Tory equivalent of the IMF being called in to bail Labour out of a financial hole in 1976. It wrecked the reputation of the Conservatives for economic competence, and it was a humiliation from which the party may never recover.

Labour was lucky. Had it won the 1992 election it was committed to precisely the same doomed strategy of defending the pound come what may. Black Wednesday would have happened, but probably sooner. As the financial crisis to end all financial crises, it would have been the political kiss of death for Labour.
...
The dollar's role as a global reserve currency means that Washington can paper over the cracks for a while by selling government bonds to its creditors. But if the laws of economics can be bent, they cannot be broken. The only long-term solution to the twin deficits is a dose of the medicine swallowed by Britain after Black Wednesday. Cutting the trade gap means exports go up and and imports come down. A cheaper dollar would help exports, but it would make imports dearer and threaten higher inflation. Higher taxes or lower spending are needed to curb consumer spending and close the budget deficit.

This combination worked in the UK, but was mightily unpopular. Unless Bush or Kerry have a brilliant plan for a perpetual bubble economy, one of them is going to have to face reality. At the moment, the Democrats have only one thought: winning. But if they lose they will at least have the consolation of seeing Bush cleaning up his own vomit.

[mhr]

1. Actually, I Think He Is Right, Has Anyone Else Considered That This Was

The plan by the republicans all along. By rigging the system in their favor, they guarantee short term profits for at least several years as the next President undoes their policies. Anyone that is realistic must know that reversing * policies will take years, especially with a republican congress.

[PATRICK]

2. Except

that the disasters awaiting Bush will be cemented in power not a return belatedly to the Democratic party. And what a devastated subservient party it would be, what a ruined nation it would be.

We will have fallen right off the see-saw. This type of analysis is outdated for the times. And Bush, once discredited and bringing the GOP down with him in defeat, would not be providing an opportunity for rebound. people are willing to suffer and sacrifice if they perceive they are being served- not served up on a platter.

The GOP would have to change so much its base would be uselessly fractured even without a coming economic collapse. The disgruntled nutty factor would be more ultimately poisonous than the desertion of left wing idealists from the Democrats. And the Right wing fanatics certainly are better at tearing down than building up. Finally the angry white guys would begin to see who really butters their bread and helps their country. They would just be the last ones to join the crowd.