Sullivan: Writing on wall for another one-term Bush

[0rganism]

Sully goes Old Testament on us:

Writing on wall for another one-term Bush
By Andrew Sullivan
August 23, 2004

IN Washington, some of the icons are well known to the public and some retain almost guru-like status among the cognoscenti and are content to have their fame restricted to a few blocks around the White House. One such nerdy eminence is Charlie Cook, of the wonkish but often indispensable National Journal.

Cook knows polls and districts and congressional races the way a sea-fisherman knows tides and currents and shoals. And so, in a relatively becalmed August, the big news was that Cook made a simple call on the presidential race. He says the election is John Kerry's to lose.

But isn't it neck and neck? Aren't the national polls dead even? Aren't we forever being told that the US is a 50-50 nation and nobody is likely to break from the pack? And didn't Kerry get the most anaemic bounce from his convention in many a year?

All of the above may be true. And next week's Republican convention will surely give George W. Bush a fillip. But it's equally true that the fundamentals in this race - and its direction - seem to be favouring the Democratic challenger, and that the US President is fast running out of ways to reverse the trend.

This is how Cook sees it: "Bush must have a change in the dynamics and the fundamentals of this race if he is to win a second term. The sluggishly recovering economy and renewed violence in Iraq don't seem likely to positively affect this race, but something needs to happen...
more: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10531791%5E2703,00.html

[lancdem]

1. That's why we have the SBVT attacks

They can't run on their record.

[Vincardog]

2. They are running on lies

Has anyone else noticed how often GW Custer's campaign is based on lies? The economy is better. Unemployment is down. Incomes are up. There were terrorists in Iraq before GW opened the gates for them.
Withholding condoms keep kids from having sex. We are winning the occupation in Iraq and we are there to help the Iraqi people come to God and Democracy. If we ban gay marriage your kids will not be gay. Haven't we had enough terror and lies? I know I have.