Driven by jihadis loyal to al-Zarqawi, the insurgency in Iraq is becoming
more confident-and more deadly. But splits in the rebels' ranks are beginning
to showFilled with al Zarqawi KoolAid, but some interesting bits.
One may infer that an attempt is being made to use al Zarqawi and
"targeting civilians" as a wedge issue.The fact that insurgents tied to al-Zarqawi are patrolling one of Baghdad's
major thoroughfares-within mortar range of the U.S. embassy-is an
indication of just how much of the country is beyond the control of U.S.
forces and the new Iraqi government. It also reflects the extent to which
jihadis linked to al-Zarqawi, 37, the Jordanian believed to be al-Qaeda's chief
operative in Iraq, have become the driving forces behind the insurgency and
are expanding its zone of influence. Though the U.S. has long believed that
al-Zarqawi's group is using Fallujah as a base to stage operations, the
militants appear to have also consolidated their grip on parts of the capital.
Last week al-Zarqawi's forces launched one of their deadliest offensives yet,
setting off at least a dozen car bombs in attacks across the country. On
Tuesday, Sept. 14, alone, the insurgents killed at least 59 Iraqis, including 47
in a car bombing outside a Baghdad police station packed with men waiting
to apply for jobs. Twenty U.S. troops died in seven days of fighting, bringing
the total for September so far to 54. With militants roaming unmolested in
parts of Baghdad, no one is safe. One week after gunmen abducted two
Italian women from their home, a group of insurgents raided a house in an
affluent Baghdad area and seized two Americans and a British engineer
without firing a shot.
---
fficials from the U.S. military and the interim Iraqi government are playing
down the significance of the intelligence estimate. "It says what we've been
saying for months," a Pentagon civilian says. "There's a 1-in-3 chance of civil
war." Officials insist that a sufficient portion of Iraq will be pacified in order
to hold elections as scheduled in January 2005. But the insurgents have
shown an impressive ability to regenerate. Jeffrey White, a former senior
analyst with the Defense Intelligence Agency, says there could be "as many
as 100,000 insurgents," including those who provide food, clothing and
shelter. "This is not a small number of people," White says. And they're
proving hard to kill. On Friday, Iraqi troops backed by Americans swept onto
Haifa Street. Al-Zarqawi's militants responded with two car bombs. Heavy
fighting could be heard for four hours. Speaking by phone during the battle,
an insurgent relayed to Time a message from al-Zarqawi's foot soldiers: "We
have already slipped away. The others have gone to their homes. No one will
find them. We are safe." Indeed, once the Iraqi troops pulled back from the
area, the insurgents reappeared.
---
For now that prospect remains unpalatable to U.S. commanders. The U.S.
says it won't tolerate insurgent control over wide swaths of territory. A
strategy aimed at denying the rebels safe haven in towns and cities under
their control and installing competent local administrations is under way in
Shi'ite areas south of Baghdad. The northern Sunni stronghold of Samarra is
being targeted in a similar push, with U.S. troops ousting fighters and
returning a civil administration. But in no-go zones like Fallujah, enlisting
the help of rebels willing to part ways with al-Zarqawi may be the only way
the U.S. can avoid bloody battles down the road. It's hardly the arrangement
Washington had in mind. But if the U.S. hopes to avert disaster in Iraq, it's
going to need all the friends it can get.
Time
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