CAPITAL JOURNAL
By GERALD F. SEIB
Write to him at jerry.seib@wsj.com3.
September 22, 2004; Page A4
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Why DO people vote for George W. Bush anyway? The answer isn't necessarily apparent. He doesn't exactly have a profile that suggests he is presidential timber: mediocre student in his younger days, checkered business history, scanty political résumé for someone in the highest office of the land. He isn't even the smartest guy in his family, or the one with the most obvious political gifts. Most think that nod goes to brother Jeb, governor of Florida.
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Voters want to like the candidate they are choosing for president, want to be comfortable seeing him or her on their television screen every night, and want to have a feeling that the candidate shares their basic values. In the words of one Bush strategist, a presidential candidate needs to be "approachable." And that's the intangible that explains why many will vote for Mr. Bush despite his blemishes -- and where he has an advantage over John Kerry. To see that, look inside a poll released last week by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
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Intriguingly, Mr. Luntz, who conducts frequent focus-group discussions with voters to plumb their attitudes, argues that the very personal attributes that attract many voters to Mr. Bush simultaneously turn off many Bush-haters. "His language is accessible, his emotions are there for people to see, you know what he's feeling, there's no fake to him." Mr. Luntz says. "If he's angry he shows it. If he's excited, he shows it." The unvarnished look appeals to voters inclined to think other politicians are too slick and slippery. But those very attributes leave some people feeling they want -- and the country deserves -- something deeper and more sophisticated in a president. "They want a Harvard Ph.D. who sounds like a cross between Alistair Cooke and William F. Buckley and Shakespeare," Mr. Luntz says. That ain't Mr. Bush.
Overall, though, persona appears to be Mr. Bush's hidden strength, and Mr. Kerry's hidden weakness. The Democratic nominee -- smart and well-credentialed -- isn't necessarily somebody voters find they can warm up to easily. The personal dimension also may be growing more important as the campaign enters its final weeks. Voters who are driven by ideological beliefs already are firmly in either the Bush or the Kerry camp. Voters who still haven't made up their minds, almost by definition, aren't driven by ideology. These remaining undecided voters figure to be the most likely to be swayed by the candidates' personal attributes.
This isn't the final reading, of course. Three big events -- the three presidential debates just agreed to by the two campaigns -- remain on the calendar before Nov. 2. Those could change the way voters think about the candidates. More important is whether they change the way voters feel -- an area where Mr. Bush right now has an advantage.
Write to Gerald F. Seib at jerry.seib@wsj.com
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