http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=old§ion=current&issue=2003-07-12&id=3298The fundamental ability of the United States to carry out an effective foreign policy may have been severely compromised if it turns out to be the case that the reasons for the war were not as stated. On the one hand, if the United States can go to war on the basis of a false claim of a threat, why can’t others such as India or Pakistan or China, to name only a few, do likewise? On the other hand, who will believe the United States in the future, even if its claim of a threat is real? And who will join the next coalition of the willing, even if it is justified and needed?
The second, and perhaps more important, issue is that of the nature of American democracy itself. It is astounding how easily the US Congress authorises presidents to use military force on the basis of flimsy claims of threat. In the wake of what turned out to be a non-existent attack on US naval vessels in the Tonkin Gulf, Congress passed the Tonkin Gulf resolution that turned the Vietnam conflict into full-scale war. Now that a similar resolution has been passed in the case of Iraq, on the basis of similarly non-existent threats, the war-making powers of the Congress and the President are up for debate.
The future of the Bush administration could well be at stake. Having criticised President Clinton severely for moral lapses and dishonesty and played the card of born-again Christianity, Bush must be seen to be absolutely honest with the American public. Indeed, much of his political appeal derives from his black-and-white, good-guy, bad-guy Texas rhetoric. If that turns out to be false, he is likely to be hoist with his own petard.
The first signs of Bush’s potential vulnerability are becoming apparent. If the situation in Iraq continues, with a steady stream of US casualties, no apparent end in sight and no good explanation of why we are there, and if the US economy remains sluggish with rising unemployment, Bush could be in deep trouble. Indeed, the parallels with his father’s situation in 1992 are striking. Then the senior Bush appeared unbeatable, so much so that the major Democratic candidates stayed out of the race. But a little known Arkansas governor sensed the feet of clay and went for the gold.
This time a little-known Vermont governor, Howard Dean, also sees possible feet of clay and is running for the gold. He has charisma on the stump and a powerful fundraising machine. More importantly, unlike the other Democratic candidates who have supported Bush on the war or kept silent, he has clearly defined himself as the anti-unilateralist and the anti-pre-emptive war candidate. Few give him a chance at the moment. But then, no one thought Bill Clinton could win either.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
