Ukraine and the Lessons of History

[CHIMO]

The post-election standoff between the government of Ukraine and the opposition may be decided not at the negotiating table or in the streets of Kiev, but 800 kilometers to the northeast, in Moscow. This is because the Ukrainian political crisis was engineered by Russia. As a result, whether it ends with a compromise, degenerates into violence or triggers a breakup of Ukraine may well depend on President Vladimir Putin's next move.

How far Putin is prepared to go, and how the West, especially Washington, reacts if Russia intervenes directly, could reshape the global political map for a long time to come. Perhaps in a less dramatic fashion, U.S. foreign policy may be facing in Ukraine its greatest challenge since the Cuban missile crisis four decades ago.

And yet, Moscow's direct intervention in Ukraine would merely mean completing a full circle since the fall of communism and the breakup of the Soviet Union into 15 new nations in 1991. The U.S.S.R. was soundly defeated in the Cold War, but its defeat was eerily reminiscent of the capitulation of the Central Powers at the end of World War I. Just like Germany and Austria-Hungary, post-communist Russia lost its colonial possessions and, in a much-reduced state, was bounced from the ranks of great powers.

Nevertheless, history suggests that Russia is likely to assert its dominance in the post-Soviet space, which it regards as its own backyard -- and it may do so with force of arms. In this case, the West needs to be prepared to stand up to Putin and his regime. This is what learning a 60-year-old European history lesson really means.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/12/06/006.html