[PINR] 08 December 2004: U.S. Retreats from Theory of Democratic Transfor

[nosmokes]

_______________________________________
Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com
[e-mail]
------------------------------
08 December 2004
Due to the recent al-Qaeda-related attack in Saudi Arabia, please visit the following past analysis:

"The Threat of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic Revolutionary Movement"
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=234

To read how Russia has taken serious hits to its strategic interests, visit the following past analysis:

"Russia's Slippery Foothold in Abkhazia Becomes a Slide"
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=239

------------------------------
U.S. Retreats from Theory of Democratic Transformation in the Middle East

Drafted By: Erich Marquardt
http://www.pinr.com

An important motive behind the Bush administration's intervention in Iraq was the goal of fostering democracy in the Middle East. This motive, recognized as critical to U.S. interests following the September 11 attacks, is based upon the belief that autocratic, non-democratic states have a higher potential to create disaffected individuals who join political groups that seek to use violence to exercise their political grievances. This pattern is especially prevalent in the Middle East, where autocracy is the norm and where most of the militants attacking U.S. interests are located.
~snip~
.
.
.

Iraq: The Theory's First Test Case

These doubts were manifested in the U.S. intervention of Iraq. While it only took weeks to eliminate the Ba'athist regime, two years have passed and there is still little stability throughout the country. Indeed, there is no evidence to definitively state whether progress is being made or lost. According to U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee, who just returned from Iraq, and a member of the Bush administration's Republican Party, the situation has become worse in the last year. Speaking to CNN, Chafee said, "It's a very tenuous security situation. I'd been there a year ago -- what a change. … In the Green Zone a year ago we felt very secure. Not so this time."
~snip~
.
.
.

Retreat from the Democratic Transformation Theory

The Bush administration's retreat from its vision of a transformation to market democracy for Middle Eastern states is evident in the lead-up to the December 11 summit meeting in Morocco intended to promote democracy across the region. U.S. officials have made clear that they will not demand the region's leaders to reform, instead coming with a package of financial and social initiatives -- plans that will not create much discomfort in the region's autocracies. Middle East analysts Tamara Cofman Wittes and Sarah Yerkes of the Brookings Institution point to the problems of this strategy: "Economic reform is something for which nearly all Arab governments are willing to accept assistance, regardless of the donor, but whether economic change can contribute to the degree of liberalization that the United States sees as necessary to reduce political extremism is uncertain."
~snip~
.
.
.

Conclusion

One of the prime motives for the intervention in Iraq was to test the neo-conservative theory of democratic transformation in the Middle East. This theory's chance for success was questionable from the very beginning, since there are few historical examples of an outside power intervening in a country with vast cultural differences and successfully implementing a market democracy there. Additionally, Iraq was a very poor choice for the execution of this theory to begin with, considering that the country has never settled the question of how power will be shared between its three main ethnic/religious groups; creating a power vacuum in such a state is a sure way to pull the intervening power into the center of civil strife and potential civil war.
~snip~
.
.
.

The Bush administration and the United States have discovered all of these difficulties in Iraq and are struggling to create some sense of stability. The overbearing cost of the Iraq intervention -- in terms of political, military and economic costs -- has demanded the full attention of the Bush administration, and it is unrealistic to expect the administration to push for further democratic transformations elsewhere in the region.
Instead, the administration can be expected to cut its geostrategic losses and try to preserve the gains it has made. A retreat from Iraq would be a devastating development to the image of the United States in the eyes of its detractors, and would likely act as a huge boon for al-Qaeda's recruitment ability, similar to the effect that resulted from the Islamist victory over the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. It would also have the potential of weakening U.S. power in the world, although this could be easily prevented by strong shows of force by the United States in regional hotspots.
Nevertheless, because retreat carries such negative connotations, the Bush administration will isolate itself from policies that have as their potential outcome further political, military and economic pressure brought to bear on the United States. For the time being, and until conditions turn favorably in Iraq, the Bush administration can be expected to shelve any serious designs at democratic transformation in the Middle East.
---###---
Report Drafted By:
Erich Marquardt
complete report available at http://www.pinr.com

------------------------------

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of [e-mail]. All comments should be directed to [e-mail].

If you would like to unsubcribe, click here

[Old and In the Way]

1. "try to preserve the gains it has made"

And what might that be?

A geometric increase in the numbers of people who hate the US?
The 1500 American deaths and 10s of thousands of casualties?
The 100,000 plus deaths of innocent Iraqi's?
The destruction of the Iraqi infrastructure?
The $250BB and counting we've spent to take out a toothless dictator?
The disruption of oil that will affect the world economy?

For what? To satisfy the ideological wet dreams of a bunch of incompetent war profiteers lusting for oil and empire? These fools have assured that the dream of a new American century will last about 1/2 as long as Hitler's 1000 year Reich.

[OneBlueSky]

2. the LAST thing BushCo wants . . . in Iraq or anywhere else . . .

is true democracy . . . they don't even want it in THIS country . . . what they want is control of everything and everyone, and democracy interferes with that objective . . . all this talk about democratizing the region is pure bs . . . they want complete and total control of the region, and its resources (i.e. oil) . . .

[bemildred]

3. Funniest thing I've read today:

"An important motive behind the Bush administration's intervention in Iraq was the goal of fostering democracy in the Middle East."

This only is true if one uses the special State Dept. usage of
"democracy" where it mean "compliant stooge government that sells
oil only in dollars".