[PINR] 15 December 2004: Testing the Currents of Multipolarity

[nosmokes]

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
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15 December 2004
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Testing the Currents of Multipolarity

Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
http://www.pinr.com

The tendency toward a multipolar configuration of world politics, in which a number of regional power centers compete for hegemony over their spheres of influence within a framework of international agreements and institutions, is a long term process involving incremental gains and losses for the major players.
The transition to multipolarity -- if it prevails -- has been set off by the severe problemsconfronted by the United States in its occupation of Iraq and by the decline of the dollar in international currency markets. The former has revealed the limitations and vulnerabilities of U.S. military power and the latter has brought forward underlying weaknesses in the U.S. economic system that are symbolized by persistent trade and budget deficits, and are rooted in changes in the world balance of economic power.
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E.U. Weapons Sales to China

The most significant geostrategic issue that came up for deliberation in the week of December 5 was whether the European Union would end its arms embargo on China. The E.U.-China summit at The Hague, Netherlands illustrates the tendency of regional power centers to deal directly with one another, apart from international organizations and from Washington.
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South American Community of Nations

Another instance in which a regional power center acted independently and against Washington was the creation -- led by Brasilia -- of a South American Community of Nations at a meeting in Cuzco, Peru. The Community unites the Andean Community of Nations (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela), Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), and Chile, Guyana and Surinam. The ultimate aim of the initiative is a transnational entity with a single currency and a parliament modeled on the E.U., although that result is probably decades away, if it is ever realized. At present, the Community does not even have a separate institutional structure. Its geostrategic importance is as an alternative to Washington's design of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (F.T.A.A.) that it would dominate.
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U.S.-India Military Cooperation

Washington also encountered resistance to its geostrategic interests in South Asia at a meeting in New Delhi of U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld with his Indian counterpart Shri Pranab Mukherjee. Washington's South Asian policy is to cultivate strong military ties with both India and Pakistan. That policy is compromised by the persistence of conflict between the two states over the disputed region of Kashmir. Neither New Delhi nor Islamabad wants to see the balance of military power shift in favor of its adversary. Washington tries to walk a fine line between keeping Islamabad as a collaborator in the struggle against Islamic revolution and gaining influence over the geostrategic direction that New Delhi's rising economic and military power will take.
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N.A.T.O. Training Mission in Iraq

Further opposition to Washington's desires surfaced at the meeting of N.A.T.O. foreign ministers in Brussels, where U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell encountered the refusal of France, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, Spain and Greece to participate in a mission to train Iraqi security forces. As in the case of potential E.U. arms sales to China, Washington was backed by N.A.T.O. members that rely on it to balance the power of the Franco-German combine: Poland, Hungary and the Netherlands promised increased contributions to the mission.
Powell responded to the six non-cooperating states by accusing them of "hurting the credibility and cohesion" of N.A.T.O., yet their rejection was a foregone conclusion, even though the mission is a N.A.T.O. policy. This latest demonstration of the rift between the Franco-German combine and the U.S. points to the continuing failure of Washington to restore its leadership of the North Atlantic alliance structure. N.A.T.O. is now a disputed entity and no longer a secure beachhead of U.S. strategic dominance in Europe. The refusal of the six non-cooperating states marks the first time in N.A.T.O.'s history that members will not participate in an authorized mission.
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Conclusion

Except where Washington had the support of Europe, which stood to gain most from successfully confronting Moscow over Ukraine, its geostrategic aims suffered setbacks at the six international meetings that were held during the week of December 5.
The drift toward multipolarity has been confirmed by the E.U.'s move to lift its arms embargo on China, Brazil's success in starting a South American Community as an alternative to the F.T.A.A., India's opposition to U.S. arms sales to Pakistan, the Franco-German combine's refusal to support the training mission in Iraq, and Euro-Arab insistence on coupling the Palestine issue to democratic reforms.
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more...
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complete report available at http://www.pinr.com

Report Drafted By:
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
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