Ticking Time Bomb (methane-induced runaway greenhouse effect,

[Vitruvius]

possible human extinction)

by John Atcheson

The Arctic Council's recent report on the effects of global warming in the far north paints a grim picture: global floods, extinction of polar bears and other marine mammals, collapsed fisheries. But it ignored <SNIP> enormous quantities of naturally occurring greenhouse gasses trapped in ice-like structures in the cold northern muds and at the bottom of the seas. These ices, called clathrates, contain 3,000 times as much methane as is in the atmosphere. Methane is more than 20 times as strong a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide.

Now here's the scary part. A temperature increase of merely a few degrees would cause these gases to volatilize and "burp" into the atmosphere, which would further raise temperatures, which would release yet more methane, heating the Earth and seas further, and so on. There's 400 gigatons of methane locked in the frozen arctic tundra - enough to start this chain reaction - and the kind of warming the Arctic Council predicts is sufficient to melt the clathrates and release these greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Once triggered, this cycle could result in runaway global warming the likes of which even the most pessimistic doomsayers aren't talking about. <SNIP> The most recent of these catastrophes occurred about 55 million years ago in what geologists call the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), when methane burps caused rapid warming and massive die-offs, disrupting the climate for more than 100,000 years.

The granddaddy of these catastrophes occurred 251 million years ago, at the end of the Permian period, when a series of methane burps came close to wiping out all life on Earth. More than 94 percent of the marine species present in the fossil record disappeared suddenly as oxygen levels plummeted and life teetered on the verge of extinction. Over the ensuing 500,000 years, a few species struggled to gain a foothold in the hostile environment. It took 20 million to 30 million years for even rudimentary coral reefs to re-establish themselves and for forests to regrow. In some areas, it took more than 100 million years for ecosystems to reach their former healthy diversity.

Geologist Michael J. Benton lays out the scientific evidence for this epochal tragedy in a recent book, When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time. <SNIP> The cause of all this havoc? In both cases, a temperature increase of about 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit, about the upper range for the average global increase today's models predict can be expected from burning fossil fuels by 2100. <SNIP> If we trigger this runaway release of methane, there's no turning back. No do-overs. Once it starts, it's likely to play out all the way.

<SNIP>
How likely is it that humans will cause methane burps by burning fossil fuels? No one knows. But it is somewhere between possible and likely at this point, and it becomes more likely with each passing year that we fail to act. <SNIP> We can't afford to have the first sign of a failed energy policy be the mass extinction of life on Earth. We have to act now.

John Atcheson, a geologist, has held a variety of policy positions in several federal government agencies.

More at http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1215-24.htm

See also related DU thread: Human extinction within 100 years warns scientist at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=103&topic_id=92158

[vpigrad]

1. Why no mention of cows?

A few years ago, methane production by cows was a big story. They produce incredible amounts of methane. There was some talk about greatly reducing the number of cows allowed in this country, but it never took-off like it should have. Nah, instead we force breed cows so we have enough milk to handle the demand when we force school children to drink it. If we did away with milk production and beef production, it would help.

[acmavm]

2. You can tell people and tell them and tell them, but they're not going

to listen (here in the good ol' US of A). The other countries of the world have come to understand that we are about to create conditions for a major extinction event, but to prevent it we have to lay down laws, rules, and conditions that will cost big business in this country MONEY. Oops, there's the magic word. Money.

Saving the planet is not of interest to those who's major concern is MONEY and how they can acquire more of it.

[BeFree]

4. Listen

There is an opportunity to make new money from this situation. Doing so however, will take money from a few old money types and redistribute that money to many innovative entrepenuers who can come up with alternatives to fossil fuel energy sources.

But, one wonders, what if they launch a few of the nukes we have at the ready? Also, one wonders, what effect, if any, has the previous testing of nukes had on the climate changes?

We could all scrimp and save, but if we blow ourselves to smithereens, what good will it do? We've a multi-pronged problem laid at our feet, eh?

[theophilus]

3. I think the Earth still has some tricks up its sleeve.

I realize this cataclysm is possible but I think, personally, that the warming we are helping along will trigger a "mini ice age" to throw a damper on our mischief. I think the Gulf Stream could flip and bring a big chill to the U.S. and Europe. We'll see. I think that it is too complex to predict but interesting times are here. I prefer cold to heat, anyway!

[Tace]

5. Here's An Interesting Link To A Review Of Benton's Book

http://www.theosophy-nw.org/theosnw/science/sc-sbd4.htm

[Demeter]

6. I'm Beginning to Think Human Extinction Not All Bad

if it wipes out everybody, not just us sane people.

[OneBlueSky]

7. the planet is a self-regulating system . . .

if a parasite (us) starts doing massive damage, the Earth will simpy compensate and do something to rid itself of the parasite . . . if humans are made extinct, then the Earth can continue to exist, and life will gradually return over several million years . . .

or not . . .

[Freebird12004]

8. my last trip to Terra Fir-ma

:toast: This is it ~ that's all folks ... I'm still enjoying this last trip here.

[Poppyseedman]

9. I smell

a Hollywood movie just around the corner.

If, and that's a REALLY big if, this scenario does happens, there isn't a thing we can do to stop it

How likely is it that humans will cause methane burps by burning fossil fuels? No one knows.

So change our entire ecomony based on that statement?