[PINR] China's Geostrategy: Playing a Waiting Game

[nosmokes]

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com
[e-mail]
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07 January 2005
All media inquiries should be directed to [e-mail].

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China's Geostrategy: Playing a Waiting Game

Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
http://www.pinr.com

It is common knowledge that China is the most important ascending world power, and one that has only begun to realize its economic and military potential. Before the World Trade Center bombings on September 11, 2001, neoconservative strategists in Washington identified China as the most significant future threat to U.S. interests and defined the Sino-American relation as one of "strategic competition" rather than "strategic partnership." Although the "war on terrorism" has taken precedence over the longer term conflict with China in Washington's geostrategy, the neoconservatives' pre-9/11 judgment was well founded and remains so.
~snip~
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Beijing's Assessment of World Politics

Despite the growth and proliferation of international and transnational political organizations, the basis and framework of world politics remain the configuration and distribution of power among states, each one applying a strategy to realize the interests perceived by its decision makers. At present, the configuration of world political power is confused, somewhere between a pattern of unipolar U.S. dominance and multipolarity, in which a number of regional powers with varying degrees of global reach and influence cooperate to keep the globalizing world economy stable, and compete for strategic advantage on the margins of their respective regions. It is impossible to predict confidently which of the two paradigms will become dominant, although in the aftermath of the U.S. intervention in Iraq, a drift toward multipolarity has become discernible.
~snip~
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Beijing's Perceived Interests

In the "pluralistic, diversified and interdependent world" that Beijing's decision makers perceive, the regime sees China's overriding interest as internal development, so that the country becomes a complete power within the next 20 years -- "to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way." Beijing is unwilling to play a specialized part in any external power's design and seeks autonomy in all spheres of collective existence. The white paper acknowledges that "as a large developing country, China has before it an arduous task of modernization, which calls for persistent hard work."
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Military Diplomacy: War Games With Russia

As it works through its geostrategy, Beijing increasingly relies on what it calls "military diplomacy" to advance towards its goals. Taking an "all-sided" approach, China has entered into a wide variety of security dialogues and agreements with states and organizations in Southeast and Central Asia, and participates in joint maneuvers, military visits and exchanges, and reciprocal observations of war games. The most important development of this all-sided policy came on December 27 -- simultaneously with the publication of the white paper -- with the announcement that Beijing and Moscow had agreed to conduct their first joint military exercises during the second half of 2005.
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Conclusion

Beijing's white paper on national defense and its application of the geostrategy presented there to holding war games with Moscow indicate realism, rationality and political maturity and sophistication. China's "ruling party" is aware of and forthright about the country's present limitations and has formulated a plausible strategy of "active defense" to overcome them over the next two decades.
Active defense means that Beijing will play a waiting game and punch below its weight until the regime feels that it is ready to act more assertively. As it gains strength, Beijing will expand its reach, as it has done in planning joint exercises with Russia. Barring unforeseeable crises that would disturb its progress toward becoming the undisputed regional power center of East and Southeast Asia, Beijing's major problems come from Washington and Tokyo, and from its perceived need to incorporate Taiwan in order to make its East Asian aspirations credible.
It is far from certain that Beijing will be able to finesse Washington and Tokyo, and, in the near term, to absorb Taiwan, but time seems to be on its side.

complete report available at http://www.pinr.com
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Report Drafted By:
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
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The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of [e-mail]. All comments should be directed to [e-mail].

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[KT2000]

1. Thanks for posting this

have read some other analyses of what China has of its goals, usually written by Americans.
I find that they fail to mention our growing dependence on China for consumer goods. I believe that China has integrated that into their Geostratgey and the Americans are really missing that.

[RPM]

2. WTF?!?!?!

Ok - so they are defined as "strategic competition", they why, oh why, would the same neo-cons who made that definition gleefully go along with the outsourcing regime that currently allows US companies to move industrial assets to China diminishing this country's ability to provide for itself? Are these people (neo-cons)
1: being bullied by the chinese?
2: colossally stupid?
3: both?

[htuttle]

3. 4: Colossally greedy

They don't give a rat's ass about the United States as a nation. It's just a tool for them to use in the pursuit of wealth.

And yes, they are very shortsighted as well. That should be obvious by now.